McCullough Out

On a night when Trevor Cooney blistered Florida State for 28 points and the Orange moved to 3-0 in ACC, there was not too much joy as freshman Chris McCullough injured his knee.

News today is the McCullough has torn his ACL and will miss the rest of this season.

The Orange will move on without McCullough, and all is not loss, as basketball is a team game. But this is highly damaging for a team already thin in the front line.

DuJuan Coleman is out for the entire year, and Chino Obokoh is the only reserve 'big' man the Orange have.  

The Orange need Rakeem Christmas to continue to play aggressive, but when he gets winded or in foul trouble, it will be tough to replace him.  Obokoh had four fouls in the Florida State game in just over five minutes of play, so you have got to believe he has a lot of work cut out for him.

Tyler Roberson can help replace McCullough, and Roberson is more of a natural power forward, so this should help Roberson.  But you do not replace 6'10" athletic players easily and that is what McCullough brought to the court.  He may have been struggling, but he was still a factor on the court.  

B.J. Johnson is going to need to come back from purgatory, and start to play.  He was rebounding well earlier in the season, but his shooting was horrendous and his defensive play in the zone was lacking.  Jim Boeheim will play a player who plays defense but is struggling offensively, but he does not like to play a guy who creates a problem in the zone defense.   

The Orange are going to need Johnson and Obokoh to start to develop.  The perimeter with Cooney, Mike Gbinije, Kaleb Joseph and Ron Patterson will be fine.  And Christmas is playing like an All-American. Let's see which Orangeman will help him out.

The timing for when McCullough can return next year will be interesting.  Conventional timing indicates it takes about a year for a repaired ACL to heal.  Some players do have a faster time line.  Andy Rautins tore his ACL, and missed an entire season.  The upside for Rautins was that he hit the gym hard, added twenty pounds of muscle, and came back a much stronger and better player.  Hopefully McCullough's surgery goes well, and he can have the same success Rautins had with his rehab.

The Most Improved Senior

Conference play has just begun for Syracuse, so there is still a long way to go in the season.  However, at this point in time, Rakeem Christmas has made an amazing jump in his performance from his junior year to his senior year.  This is causing a lot of discussion among Syracuse fans on whether this is the best increase between a junior and senior season.

In 2013-2014, Christmas  averaged  5.8 ppg, and often was pulled early in the game by a frustrated JimBoeheim. In 2014-2015, Christmas is the focal point of the offense, and is scoring 17.3 ppg.  Not only is his production up, but he seems to move with more grace and ease on the court, shows a wider variety of moves, and a more aggressive style. There are still weaknesses to his game, and the tough part of the schedule is still a month away, but Christmas has definitely made huge strides.

How does Christmas compare to other seniors who made great strides their senior year? Chronologically…

In 1919-1920, forward Nick Paul led the Orangemen in scoring with 13.5 ppg, and was the team’s designated free throw shooter. Paul was 8.5 ppg better than runner up Ken Lavin.  He led the team to a 15-3 record.  As a junior Paul played in only four games and scored 10 points.   A rather remarkable performance for a man who had played only 5 games in his career prior to his senior year.  Syracuse won its last 13 games of the season, and Paul was the leading scorer in each game.

In 1951-1952, guard Bucky Roche was second in scoring on the team with 14.0 ppg.  His junior year he had scored 4.6 ppg.  Roche’s highlight of the season was a 35 point game in a tight win over rival Cornell.

In 1968-1969, forward Bob Kouwe was second in scoring with 14.0 ppg, and had 6.5 rebounds per game.  He had only 4.0 ppg and 2.8 rpg in a junior season that was cut short by a team suspension.  Kouwe would have a career high 27 points in a one point win over rival Colgate.

In 1980-1981, center Danny Schayes led the Orangemen in scoring and rebounding with 14.6 ppg and 8.3 rpg.  He shot 82% from the free throw line and 58% from the floor.  He had only 5.9 ppg and 4.5 rpg his junior year.  Schayes had always been a fundamentally sound player, but he was stuck behind Roosevelt Bouie for three years.  Boeheim tried a twin tower approach with Schayes and Bouie both on the court, but that did not work well as neither player was suited for the forward position.

In 1986-1987, guard Greg Monroe would increase his scoring from 4.6 ppg to 12.9 ppg, along with doubling his rebounding and assist efforts.  Monroe could always play, but he lacked the playing time being stuck behind Pearl Washington and Rafael Addison.  The unknown that Monroe brought to the game was his three point shooting. This was the first season of three point shooting in the NCAA, and Monroe proved to be very good at it, hitting 43.9% of his shots. That, along with his senior leadership, was a great factor in allowing the Orangemen to make a run at the National Championship.

In 1995-1996, point guard Lazarus Sims would develop into a fantastic playmaker, averaging 7.4 assists per game, along with 3.7 rpg. He wasn’t counted on to score, averaging only 6.3 ppg, but he shot well enough (36% from three point range and 75% from the free throw line) to keep teams honest.  Sims would help guide the Orangemen to the National Championship game against Kentucky, and his playmaking was the second biggest factor behind big John Wallace.  Sims only played 441 minutes his junior year, averaging 2.6 apg, 1.4 rpg, and 3.0 ppg, as he sat behind Michael Lloyd and Lawrence Moten.

In 2000-2001 point guard Allen Griffin would dwarf his junior year statistics.  He had 10.8 ppg, 6.5 apg, and 3.3 rpg, versus 3.0 ppg, 1.7 apg, and 1.1 rpg.  However, Griffin’s career was strange, as he was a healthy but seldom used junior player who was stuck behind guards Jason Hart, Tony Bland, DeShaun Williams and swingman Preston Shumpert.  As a sophomore, Griffin had been a starter and had a decent season, so while his senior year was a huge leap from his junior, it was not a huge leap from his sophomore.  Griffin did have to huge games his senior year; he recorded a triple double in a win over Pitt, and the next game he would score 31 points in a 2 point win over St. John’s.

In 2006-2007, forward Demetris Nichols went from having a good junior year to an excellent senior year.  Nichols had 13.3 ppg as a junior, but he rose that to 18.9 ppg as a senior.   Nicholas became more efficient as he improved his shooting touch, and was more prolific. He increased his three point shooting from 36% to 42%, and his free throw shooting from 68% to 85%. Nichols would score 37 points and have 10 rebounds in a two point win over St. Johns.

In 2010-2011, forward Rick Jackson made significant strides in his play, even if the statistical numbers weren’t as strong as some other candidates.  Jackson increased his scoring from 9.7 ppg to 13.1 ppg, and his rebounds from 7.0 rpg to 10.3 ppg.  Defensively he became the Big East Defensive Player of the Year.  He was far more consistent offensively, as opposed to his junior season where he often disappeared. 

If I were to choose a player, prior to this season, I would have to go with Lazarus Sims.  I did not see the first three players I mentioned, and statistically speaking, Nick Paul had the best improvement of any Syracuse player ever, especially in the context of his era.  But I did not see him play.

Sims ran the offense spectacularly his senior year, and with his size was a strong defensive presence at the top of the key.  This from a player that almost transferred earlier in his career, and a player that Jim Boeheim was shaky enough about that he recruited a junior college player (Lloyd) to play the point instead.  The fact that Syracuse went to the national championship game speaks a lot about Sims improvement.

Many of the players listed above may not have benefited from significant improvement in their play, but rather from finally getting the opportunity to play. That is always tough to tell. Christmas is a little bit clearer because he has been given the opportunity to play, and never took hold of it.  He has been a starter his whole career, but has also been the victim of many quick hooks.

If Christmas keeps up his pace, and the Orange make some noise in the post season, I would be apt to make him the most improved senior ever.  We will have to see how it plays out.

It's a Win but Yuck

The good news is the Orange won today 68-66 to get themselves to 10-4 and 1-0 in the ACC.  The bad news is they blew a nineteen point lead, and could not seal the win with their free throw shooting.

Syracuse led by nine points, 62-51, with 2:22 left to play.  They would go to the free throw line sixteen times from that point on, and would make only six of them.  Those ten missed free throws almost cost the Orange the game.  

We cannot even pin the poor free throw shooting on one player; this was truly a team effort:

Ron Patterson, 2-6

Michael Gbinije, 1-4

Tyler Roberson, 1-2

Trevor Cooney, 1-2

Rakeem Christmas, 1-2

In that same time period, the Hokies made three 3-point baskets, two 2-point jumpers and a layup for 15 points.  The Hokies had a chance to win the game with a last second three point basket, but fortunately for the Orange that the Hokies had to rush the shot and the Orange played good defense on the play.

But, it was a win, a road win at that. And a win is a win.

As an interesting note of trivia:  Ron Patterson played 183 minutes of collegiate basketball, and was in his 22 game, before he made his first free throw.  

Non-Conference Rankings

Syracuse has completed its non-conference schedule with a record of 9-4.  They have eighteen ACC conference games coming up to help build their resume for the NCAA, along with the ACC tournament games.  The Orange will have their work cut out for them, and will have the opportunities to do so.

The ACC currently has five teams in the AP Top 25:  #2 Duke, #3 Virginia, #5 Louisville, #14 Notre Dame and #19 North Carolina.  Syracuse will play Duke twice, and each of the other teams once, so as it stands rights now they have six opportunities to beat ranked team.  That will likely change as the season progresses, as teams move up and down the rankings, but it gives a good starting point.

The initial part of the ACC schedule for Syracuse is a favorable one, and the Orange will need to take advantage of it because the back end of their schedule is murderous.  Syracuse plays its first seven ACC games against non-ranked teams, and four of those are at home. The last seven games of their ACC schedule has them playing five games against teams ranked 14 or higher, including Duke twice. 

Syracuse’s 9-4 non-conference record is not going to help them, but it is not going to hurt them too much. They did not have any terrible losses on their schedule, with all four wins being against major conference schools.  KenPom.com has Villanova at #6, St. Johns at #23, California at #72 and Michigan at #74.  Iowa gets credit for being an impressive win as it is a team from a major conference and KenPom has them rated #33, but none of the other wins are notable.

A 9-4 non-conference record is the 2nd worst record since Syracuse joined a conference in 1979-1980.  In 1981-1982, the Orangemen were 8-4 with non-conference losses to unranked St. Josephs, Fordham, Ohio State and #4 ranked DePaul.  This was the team led by triumvirate of Leo Rautins, Erich Santifer and Tony Bruin, and the team finished 7-7 in the Big East, 16-13 overall with an NIT bid.  Not a good sign for this year’s team.

The Orange have been playing much better since their loss to St. John’s.  Trevor Cooney has found his shooting touch and diversified his game.  Michael Gbinije has improved his all-around game, plus improved his shooting, and Rakeem Christmas has cut down on the silly fouls giving him more playing time and remained a consistent steady inside force. 

The parts are coming together but the Orange need more progression from others players.  Chris McCullough has to learn how to handle being pushed around.  Kaleb Joseph, or Ron Patterson, needs to step up and take control of the point guard position.  Either B.J. Johnson or Tyler Roberson has to become more reliable on both the defensive and offensive end of the courts. 

It all starts with the Virginia Tech game this Saturday. Go Orange!

Top 10 Highlights of Syracuse Basketball in 2014

Happy New Year to all the Orange fans out there.  As 2014 comes to close, here are my top 10 highlights from Syracuse basketball for the year.

1. Syracuse beating Duke 91-89 in overtime on Feb 1^st before an NCAA record crowd 35,446.
2. Tyler Ennis’ 35 foot game winning basket against Pitt for a 58-56 victory at the Peterson Center on February 12th, extending the Orange's winning streak to 24 games.
3. Syracuse’s school  record 25 game winning streak set against North Carolina State on Feb 15^th.
4. Syracuse reaching #1 in the polls on February 3^rd, with the Orange being 22-0.
5. Jim Boeheim throwing his coat and being ejected against Duke on Feb 22 at Cameron Indoor Arena.  It was Boeheim’s first career ejection, as he argued that C.J. Fair’s game winning shot should have counted; instead Fair was called with charging.
6. Trevor Cooney scoring 33 points against Notre Dame on February 3^rd.  He was 9 of 12 from three point range, and 11 of 15 from the floor in the 61-55 win.
7. Syracuse beating Western Michigan 77-53 in the first round of the NCAA Tournament behind Trevor Cooney’s 18 points.
8. Syracuse beating Miami 49-44 on January 4^th, behind C.J. Fair’s 15 points. This would be Syracuse’s first game in ACC conference play.
9. Syracuse beating North Carolina 57-45 on January 11^th before 32,121 fans at the Carrier Dome. The Orange would lead by as much as 19 points with four minutes to play.
10. Syracuse beating Kennesaw State 89-42 on November 14^th to start the Kaleb Joseph & Chris McCullough era, kick off 115^th season of Syracuse basketball and Jim Boeheim’s 39^th season as head coach.

Merry Christmas!

I wanted to wish all the Orange fans out there a very Merry Christmas! I hope you stockings were full of neat stuff, and that Old Saint Nick came down that chimney with a bagful for you and yours.

Appropriately, the only way to wish a truly Orange Christmas is:

Shaking Away Preconceptions

I think sometimes we as fans let our preconceptions of what a player or coach does cloud the reality of what we see.  There is a common perception among Orange fans that Jim Boeheim always plays a tight rotation of 7 players, and he is unwilling to change.  

Statistically, that is not true.  And surprisingly, we only have to go back two and three seasons to see contrary situations.

Using a guideline of players who played 10+ minutes a game, and who played in virtually all of the games they were eligible to play in (where they were not limited by injury of suspension), here is a breakdown from 1989-1990 to 2013-2014 of the number of players in Boeheim's 'rotation' (data from OrangeHoops)

2013-2014: 7

2012-2013: 9

2011-2012: 9

2010-2011: 8

2009-2010: 7

2008-2009: 8

2007-2008: 7

2006-2007: 7

2005-2006: 7

2004-2005: 8

2003-2004: 9

2002-2003: 8

2001-2002: 8

2000-2001: 7

1999-2000: 8

1998-1999: 8

1997-1998: 7

1996-1997: 7

1995-1996: 7

1994-1995: 8

1993-1994: 7

1992-1993: 8

1991-1992: 7

1990-1991: 7

1989-1990: 7

Over those 25 seasons, Boeheim did employ a seven man rotation thirteen times.  But, that means twelve times he employed a larger rotation.  Nine times he had an eight man rotation, and three times he had a nine man rotation. In 2012-2013 and 2011-2012 he had the nine man rotations... very recent indeed!

I do no think there is any doubt that Boeheim likes to play his primary five as much as he can.  And clearly a seven or eight man rotation is his norm.  He does however adjust to the talent he has.

Boeheim appears to be unwilling to play a player who has not proven himself in practice. He does not appear to be a coach who wants to play a guy 'just to give him experience'. Instead, he always works to put his team in the best position to win for that game.

It is true that Boeheim's bench will shrink during truly big games.  I would submit however, that is true for most if not all coaches. You play your best players when you need to play your best players.

In 1995-1996 Syracuse played a tight bench all season, and Kentucky, who was the dominant favorite that season was touted for the incredible depth of the team and how masterful Rick Pitino was for playing so deep into his bench.  And Kentucky did play 10 deep all season long; no player on that team averaged more than 27 minutes a game.

In the championship game, Syracuse played seven deep as they had done all year. But look at what Rick Pitino did.  Pitino, who is a great coach, went only eight players deep, and four of his starters played 27 or more minutes. Tony Delk played 37 minutes and Anthony Epps 34.

Part of that was because it was a real big game for Kentucky, and Pitino wanted his best players on the court (i.e. just like Boeheim). And part of that was that the game pace and tempo, which was dictated by Syracuse, not Kentucky, allowed Pitino the opportunity to keep his starters in the game longer.  However, read that last point again.  Pitino, in one game because of tempo, kept his starters in longer.  Boeheim plays with that tempo all 35+ games all year.  And by the way, which set of players do you think were less fatigued in that game? The guys who averaged 35-38 minutes a game all year, or the guys who averaged 22-27 minutes a game?  My money is on the guys who are used to playing those minutes.  

But I digress.  

The original point was that Boeheim never plays more than seven deep (which is false), and Boeheim won't change or adapt (which is also false). When Boeheim has the talent, he plays the talent, and when he has a small set of talented players, the rotation is smaller.

An interesting side note: back in 1977-1978, during the Louie 'n Bouie era, Syracuse went 11 players deep (10 if you don't want to count Marty Headd as a regular), and 12 players on the team had enough quality time per game they played to average 3.4 ppg or more.