NET Ranking Black Magic

There are several elements to the NET ranking.  The Quad element is supposed to be a heavily weighted portion, but the current results for Syracuse are baffling.

Here are the Orange's NET ranking compared to two teams they have beaten, and a third team. The data is their record for each quadrant, as of 12-31-2023.

Syracuse #78 rank  0-2 Q1, 2-1 Q2, 6-0 Q3, and 1-0 Q4

Pittsburgh  #41 rank  0-2 Q1, 0-1 Q2, 4-1 Q3, and 5-0 Q4

Oregon  #71 rank 0-1 Q1, 0-1 Q2, 6-1 Q3, and 4-0 Q4

SMU  #45 rank 0-3 Q1, 0-1 Q2, 2-0 Q3, 6-0 Q4

In theory Q1 losses don't hurt you, and Q4 wins don't help.  Meanwhile Q1 wins are huge, and Q4 losses hurt.

None of these teams have Q1 wins.  Syracuse has played only one Q4 game, as opposed to the 5, 4, and 6 of the other teams. Pitt and Oregon both have a Q3 loss (bad); Syracuse has not bad losses. 

Syracuse is 2-3 in Q1&Q2 games. Pitt is 0-3, Oregon 0-2, and SMU 0-4.

Syracuse is 7-0 in Q3&Q4.  Pitt is 9-1, Oregon 10-1, SMU 8-0.

Someone countered with me the other day that the large margin of victories for the other teams must be coming into play.  But the NCAA said in 2018 they cap margin of victory at 10 points, so that should have no impact on the Orange.

Here's the Orange margin of victory so far this season after 12 games (Chaminade doesn't count for the NET).

Point margin: +11, +12, +4, -17, -19, +23, -22, +11, +12, +20, +12, +8

All of the Orange wins except for Colgate and Pitt hit the cap.  Hard to believe the opposition is doing more.

I know they take computer modeling into play, but that's all secretive, but also supposed to be a smaller portion of the ranking.  The black box magic going on is baffling.  Perhaps small sample sizes are coming into play, but we are over a third of the way through the schedule.

The Orange have more quality wins, no bad losses, a tougher schedule, better overall record, and are capping the point spread margin, yet are lower ranked, significantly in 2 cases, than Pitt, Oregon, and SMU.

Looking Forward to the Syracuse - San Diego State Game

I’m glad I get to see this year’s team continue to play. I’ve enjoyed the season, watching the players develop and grow, and to get to know the team’s personality as well as that of the individual players.  It was nice to see Buddy Boeheim get his shooting stroke back.  For a player like Marek Dolezaj the NCAA tournament gives him the opportunity to showcase what he brings to the table, a guy who always puts the "team first".

It would be great to see either Alan Griffin or Joe Girard get their shot back, and for Quincy Guerrier to be explosive for the whole game.  Hopefully Kadary Richmond's knee is comfortable enough for him to display some of his defensive wizardry.  And I hope both Robert Braswell and Jesse Edwards get some moments to shine.

The NCAA tournament is designed to give heartbreak to 67 out of 68 teams. I think we all know that, but we all don’t accept that. The key to me is for the Orange to play well, represent themselves well, and see where things fall.

Hopefully the Orange picked up no rust with their week off, and they can remember the game flow nuances that help them on both ends of the court.  

I have no idea how tonight's game will go.  This season has shown that anybody can beat anyone by any margin on a given night.  I hope the Orange bring their 'A' game tonight.  That is all I can ask.

Go Orange!

Where's The Slipper?

The Orange have made the Elite 8 as a #10 seed.  Yet, they have failed to reach Cinderella team status in the national media nor in social media. They in fact are vilified and treated as a pariah.  The Orange have knocked off Dayton, Middle Tennessee State and Gonzaga on their path to the Elite 8.  It's by no means a murderers row, but it is also a group of teams good enough to knock #6 Seton Hall, #3 Utah and #2 Michigan State out of the tournament.

I understand that some people think that Syracuse should not be in the tournament.  They look at the overall record of the Orange, look at the cheap and flawed RPI rating, and make their assumptions from there.  If they looked at what the Orange's record was comprised of, and looked at all the non-RPI metrics (such as KenPom.com), they would easily see the Orange deserved to be in, especially compared to the bubble teams.  Ironically, Syracuse, by the NCAA committee's own admission, wasn't even a bubble team... there were 6 other at-large teams seeded lower than the Orange in the tournament.  You would be very hard pressed to find 7 teams who didn't make the NCAA who were more deserving that Syracuse.  

Syracuse has all the makings of a Cinderella team.  Consider:

Two fifth year graduate students starting in their backcourt with Michael Gbinije and Trevor Cooney.  Both could have left under Graduate student transfer rules, and played for schools that were not hampered by NCAA penalties, yet both chose to stay.  And both are fine students.

Michael Gbinije... perhaps the most underrated player in the country.  And quite the gentleman.  When asked whether all the poor talk about Syracuse was bothering him, his succinct response was 'Thank you for the motivation'.  And then after a long pause 'that's all I have to say on that'. 

DaJuan Coleman's recovery from two devastating knee injuries and an 18 month absence from the game.

Three freshman in Tylor Lydon, Malachi Richardson and Frank Howard with unique styles and refreshing energy.

Starting the tournament as a #10 seed.  No #10 seed has ever made the Final Four.  Three #11's have done it, but no #10.  

A team hampered by scholarship reductions to have only a 9 player squad.

The 30 day suspension of Coach Jim Boeheim which was a devastating blow to the team both directly on the court with the team going 4-5 in his absence, and off the court regarding retarding the team's development and progression through the season.

If the slipper fits, then one is Cinderella.  Where's our Ball?

Mid-Majors Get Robbed (Predictably)

The Big East did deserve 11 teams in the NCAA Tournament this year, despite the fact that many of Syracuse’s Big East brethren are working hard at tarnishing that with all the upsets. As I pointed out the other day, eleven Big East teams were going to make the tournament and it was not even going to be close (and it wasn’t based on the seeding). If you look at the Big East team’s records, ignoring which conference they were in, and compared them to all the other ‘at large’ teams out there, there was no question about it.

Fans upset about the mid-majors being denied should look at the lower teams from the Big 10, Pac 10 and ACC. Their resumes were far less impressive, and for the most part, their results have equally been sub-par.

The mid-majors are suffering from a scenario where they had no strength of resume to make the tournament. This has evolved over the past four to five years from how the NCAA Committee looks at team’s schedules. I had stated in 2007 that mid-majors would find it more difficult in the future to get at-large bids in the NCAA, and it is true.

A team like Syracuse has no reason to schedule a mid-major. The national experts, such as Dick Vitale, will only criticize Syracuse for playing a mid-major, screaming that they should be playing major conference teams. If they beat a mid-major team, they get no respect from the analysts. On the other hand, they have a chance of losing those games, and that loss will kill them later in the year from a voter perception.

Plus scheduling the mid-majors hurts your RPI. 25% of the RPI scoring is your opponent’s opponent SOS… so every time you schedule a mid-major (and for that matter any lesser conference team), you drag down your RPI, because you get the total results of that entire conference. Playing Georgia Tech, Michigan and North Carolina State this year in the non-conference schedule helped Syracuse, regardless how well those teams did, because you tie in all the teams in those conferences into your RPI.

So now we are in the position where none of the major teams will play mid-majors on a regular basis, thus giving the mid-major conferences little opportunity to get wins for their resumes. As I had pointed out the other day, none of the mid-major conferences looked particularly good in 2011. That doesn’t mean they were not good; they just had no body of evidence to suggest it because of limited exposure against the ‘better’ conferences.

A side note on the NCAA scheduling Connecticut and Cincinnati, and Syracuse and Marquette to all meet in the 2^nd round of the tournament: shame on the NCAA. It’s clear they wanted the Big East schools to knock each other out of the tournament. The NCAA implied it was the mathematics of the situation that caused the situation to occur. Well, mathematically, there are sixteen ‘pods’ in the NCAA first two rounds, and only 11 Big East teams. All 16 Big East teams could make the tournament, and not be required to meet each other until the Sweet Sixteen.

Look, it’s fine if the NCAA wants to have Big East teams knock each other out of the tournament. Just admit it. As representative of schools of higher learning, you just look like fools stating a falsehood as your reasoning, and you insult the intelligence of your fans. As a Syracuse fan, I do feel cheated having to play a Big East team in the NCAA. I would like to see the Orange play a school they have not played, so we can see how the Orange really measure up. Playing Marquette, this early in the tournament, really offers us nothing new.

Besides, with the historical tradition of the ‘Madness’ in March Madness, you know that Big East schools were not all going to survive anyhow.

Will Big East Get 11?

The Big East should be sending 11 teams to the NCAA Tournament next week, and that was probably true before Marquette won any games in the Big East Tournament. Now that Marquette has won two games in the BET, I think it is a guarantee.

It is not only the depth of talent and success in the Big East that makes this so obvious. It is the lack of good teams in other conferences this year that is going to force the NCAA Committee to choose eleven of the Big East brethern.

Historically, there are some solid mid-major teams that deserve to be in the NCAA tournament because they beat up on some of the top 25 teams during the season. That isn’t the case this year.

The following 15 conferences have no wins against Top 25 teams: America East, Big Sky, Big South, Ivy League, Metro Atlantic, Mid-American (0-14), Mid-Eastern Athletic (0-11), Missouri Valley (0-10), Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot League, Southern (0-10), Southland (0-11), Southwestern Atlantic (0-11), and Sun Belt. Normally you have solid arguments from the Mid-American, Missouri Valley and Mid-Eastern Athletic conferences for inclusion of multiple teams; those conferences are a combined 0-35 versus the top 25 this year.

The following 6 conferences have one win each against a Top 25 team: Atlantic Sun, UC Santa Barbara, Colonial Athletic, Horizon, Summit League (1-17), West Coast, and Western Athletic.

Oakland (of the Summit League) is one of the few teams in the mid-majors who could make an argument for going to the tournament on their resume alone (25-9, 15-7 away from home, 1-4 versus top 25) and they won their own tournament, so they are moot point.

The Atlantic 10 has four wins against Top 25 teams.

The Pac 10 has only one ranked team: Arizona, and they are 0-3 versus the top 25. UCLA could make an argument at 22-9, 2-2 versus top 25, 6-7 away from home. USC is 3-1, but currently has an 18-13 record, so that’s not a great record considering their overall competition.

The top four teams in Conference USA are 0-4 against the Top 25. The middle of Conference USA makes a stronger argument with Southern Miss, Marshall and UCF going a combined 3-1.

The ACC has only 2 ranked teams (Duke and North Carolina) in the top 25. Duke is 4-1 vs the Top 25, but NC is only 2-3. Florida State is 2-4, though at 21-9 with a 8-5 road record FSU should be fine. Clemson, #4 in the ACC is only 1-2 against the Top 25, 3-7 on the road, and 20-10 overall. I don’t see how that betters any Big East team.

The Big Ten has three teams that did well against the Top 25 with Ohio State, Purdue and Wisconsin. #4 Illinois is 1-6 versus the top 25, Michigan 1-7, Michigan State 3-8 (and MSU lost to both UConn and SU

Mountain West goes two teams with San Diego State and Brigham Young. #3 UNLV is only 1-5 against the top 25, though they are an impressive 12-3 away from home. The rest of Mountain West is 2-25 versus the top 25.

The SEC has two ranked teams (Florida and Kentucky). Vanderbilt makes a good argument, but Georgia is only 20-10 with a 1-5 top 25 record. Alabama is only 20-10 with a 1-3 top 25 record. Those aren’t bad, but they aren’t screaming ‘take me’. Tennessee is a respectable 4-4, and had a lot of off-the-court issues this year, but their overall record is now 18-13.

The Big 12 run deep with a lot of wins against Top 25 teams, and six teams currently with 20+ wins. A lot of their bubble teams are horrendous on the road: Colorado 3-9, Nebraska 1-7, Baylor 2-6, Oklahoma State 2-9.

Contrast this with the Big East’s top 11 teams. They all have 20+ wins. The worst road record of the group is 4-7 which isn’t that bad; seven have winning road records. They are 28-10 on neutral courts. 9 teams in the top 25. Marquette was the closest thing to a bubble team, and they are now 20-13 overall, 4-9 on the road. Compare that to the other conferences 3-5 seeds, and you should be impressed. Marquette’s RPI is only 64, so that would be their biggest concern, but you don’t win two games in the Big East tournament, on top of a solid resume, and go home.

Villanova may have put themselves at risk; if any Big East team doesn’t make it, it would be the Wildcats who have lost 5 straight including an embarrassing loss to South Florida. But they are 21-11 overall, 5-8 versus top 25 teams, and their RPI is still #37 in the country. They have big wins over Temple, Louisville, Syracuse and West Virginia. And their overall body of work, compared to the weak efforts from other conferences, still points them in.

Syracuse, of course, is a tourney lock, and have been for a while. They have no bad losses (Seton Hall is the worst loss and they are 97 in the RPI). They have 12 total quality wins, and five of those are signature wins against Notre Dame, St. Johns, UConn, West Virginia and Georgetown. They are 6-4 versus the top 25, 9-3 away from home, 12-6 in the conference and 25-6 overall. The question is what seed they will get, and it appears around a #3.

Three To Go

A win over Villanova the other night would have been huge; instead Syracuse left some work still to be done. The win over St. John's definitely help. Syracuse continues their trend of beating the teams they should beat, and losing to those that are better. Logic tells me that based on their resume, Syracuse should be 'safe' from the bubble position, assuming they don't collapse down the stretch. But I have no faith in the NCAA selection committee.

A win against Marquette on the road became a little bit easier with the injury last night to Dominic James. It will still be a tough win to get, and if the Orange can win that game, that should 'seal the deal' for post season action (a win against a top rate team on the road to close out the year).

Syracuse is currently at #22 in the RPI and #11 in the strength of schedule (SOS), using CBSSportsline's RPI. Those numbers won't likely change much over the next three games, and the Big East tournament should help to bolster the SOS.

West Virginia is sitting a little prettier at #17 in the RPI and #9 in the SOS. The strange thing is that Syracuse fans feel like we may be in jeopardy of making the NCAA, and my West Virginia fans feel the same way about the Mountaineers.

Meanwhile, look at these four programs:

UCLA 20-7, but a #35 RPI and #46 SOS, #22 in the AP

Gonzaga 20-5, but a # 42 RPI and #89 SOS, #17 in the AP

Texas 19-8 but #41 RPI and #38 SOS, #25 in the AP
Arizona 18-9 but #46 RPI and #36 SOS
Florida 21-7 but #43 RPI and #95 SOS

These schools are normally the 'darlings' of the NCAA selection committee and with sportswriters (hence the high AP ranking). The RPI and SOS numbers above all position those teams as bubble teams. Do you think that their fans think they are on the bubble? I'm guessing they are feeling somewhat comfortable right now.

We'll see how this all shakes out. There is a lot of basketball left to be played, but time is short.