2011-2012 Starting in a Lofty Position

Syracuse is starting the 2011-2012 season ranked #5.  The Orange have a reputation of often underachieving when highly rated, and overachieving when lowly ranked or unranked.   However, starting the year at #5 is a rarity for the Orange, something accomplished only three times before.  There are some strong similarities between those three seasons, as we will see.

In the fall of 1985, the Orange were ranked #4 to start the season. This was Pearl Washington’s junior season, and the underrated Rafael Addison was getting recognition as he entered his senior year.  Senior Wendell Alexis was finally getting a starting job, as was Howard Triche, and Rony Seikaly was moving into his sophomore year.  The Pearl played as well as could be expected, but an injury to Addison’s knee hampered the second half of his year.  Rony Seikaly improved, but not as much as hoped.  The Orangemen would go 26-6 over the season including 14-2 in the Big East, winning the Big East Regular season championship.  They would lose to St. John’s in a close game in the Big East Tournament Championship, and would earn a #2 seed for the NCAA tournament.  The Orangemen would suffer an embarrassing second round upset loss to Navy, though David Robinson was showing the world that he was a great player.  The Orangemen would finish the year ranked #9.

In 1987 the Orangemen were ranked #1, following their loss to Indiana in the NCAA Championship the year before.  The Orangemen had a lot of talent with junior Sherman Douglas leading the offense, and senior Rony Seikaly dominating the middle.  Sophomore Derrick Coleman and Stephen Thompson would provide the front court presence and Matt Roe the outside shooting.  The Orangemen would go 11-5 in the Big East, 26-9 overall.  They would win the Big East Tournament, easily beating Villanova in the finals, and would earn a #3 seed.  The Orangemen would unfortunately be upset in the second round in an upset to Rhode Island with an ailing Sherman Douglas struggling to play.  The Orange would again finish the year ranked #9.

Finally in 1989 the Orangemen were again ranked #1.  Senior Stephen Thompson moved to point guard, with sophomore Dave Johnson playing the other guard position.  Syracuse’s front court included senior Derrick Coleman, sophomore Billy Owens and junior LeRon Ellis.  The Orange struggled with Thompson and the point, and freshman Michael Edwards would move to the point, with Thompson moving back to the shooting guard.  The Orangemen would go 26-7 with a 12-4 record in the Big East. They would win the Big East Regular season championship, but lose in the Big East Tournament Finals in a close game to UConn.  They would earn a #2 seed, but lose in the Sweet Sixteen to Minnesota. They would finish the year ranked #6.

Those three seasons all had the Orangemen play very well in the Big East, winning a regular season championship or tournament championship each time.  They made the BET finals each time, and earned a good seed in the NCAA.  All three teams bowed out of the NCAA shockingly early (2^nd or 3^rd round).   So those teams were successful by most season standards, but they failed to live to the lofty pre-season.

So what can we expect in 2011-2012?  There are a lot of unknowns for the Orange, mixed in with a lot of pluses.  They do return a lot of talent from the previous season, and they do have a very experienced team.  It is also a very deep team with eleven guys who could see significant playing time (though that surely will shake down to nine).

The Orange could have an explosive offense with the ability to pound the ball inside, slash to the hoop, or score from the perimeter.  Defensively they could once again have the dominating Orange zone defense, with a lot of length and speed.

There are some questions that will need to be answered to find out what the Orange can really do.

Rick Jackson:  Can the Orange replace big Rick Jackson? Jackson provided consistency last year, dominating the boards all season long, and locking down the defense in the low post.  Players like Jackson are rare, an individual who had the strength, drive and hustle, along with the maturity of a senior.  Rakeem Christmas could replace Jackson, but that is an awful lot to ask of any player, much less a freshman.

The Centers:  Last year Fab Melo was disappointing most of the season, and Syracuse was saved by the fact that Baye Keita came out of nowhere to provide a spark in the middle.  Will Melo display the promise that he had coming out of high school? Will the NCAA game slow down for him, and will he be able to stay out of foul trouble.  If Melo doesn’t improve, the loss of Jackson will be more apparent, and it will put a lot of pressure on Keita.

Scoop Jardine: Which Scoop Jardine will the Orange see most of the time? Will he be a leader on the court, and run the offense for a whole forty minutes, or will he continue to have an over abundance of ‘Scoop moments’, along with forgetting about his teammates in crunch time and trying to do it all himself?

Team Chemistry: What type of team will the Orange have? Will it be a cohesive unit like the Rautins-Johnson team of two years ago, or a fragmented teams of super egos? There is a lot of talent coming in from the freshman class, and a lot of returning talent, all of whom are going to want playing time.  Are the players going to be able to work together, or is each going to try to show off his talent any chance he gets ala a Donte Greeen?

The Orange should have a very good season, and I would be surprised if they are not a 3 seed or higher come tournament time. The experience on the team cannot be overstated; it is very important for developing the ‘basketball IQ’. 

I know I eagerly await the season tip off. Go Orange!

What to Expect in 2010-2011?

The 2010-2011 season is almost upon us, and as is the life in collegiate basketball, the churn of the team continues. Last season was a magical ride, that ultimately ended too early, but had the Orange running at the top echelon of collegiate hoops for the bulk of the competitive season.

Last season was a surprise, and many factors came together to make the team one of the strongest in Syracuse basketball history.

1) The emergence of Wes Johnson as a top tier NCAA basketball player. Coach Jim Boeheim was telling everyone how good Johnson was in practice in 2009-2010, and how good he thought he would be. Yet no one wanted to believe the Hall of Fame coach, despite Boeheim having a long history of understating how good the new players were. Johnson ended up being better than I believe Boeheim even believed he could be.

2) The re-emergence of the shutdown zone defense, something that was not seen operating in its full beauty since the 2002-2003 season. The improvement in the zone defense itself should not have been a surprise as the change in personnel alone signaled an improvement would occur in the zone. Eric Devendorf never pretended to play defense, and Paul Harris never understood the nuances of playing zone defense. Jonny Flynn, as talented as he is, was more suited for man-to-man defense, and undersized for the top of the key in the zone defense. Those three were switched out for a 6’4” Brandon Triche at the top of the key, 6’5” Andy Rautins who was a master of zone defense, and 6’7” Wes Johnson whose natural athleticism and understanding of the game allowed him to fill that back end of the zone well. Rick Jackson and Arinze Onuaku were both a year older and more mature, and the extra year of playing in the Boeheim zone only benefited them. So we knew the zone would be better; I don’t we think could have anticipated that it would have been a phenomenal defense. That was the surprise.

3) A selfless team led by two selfless players in Rautins and Johnson. The 2009-2010 team made the extra pass, played a style of basketball the rewarded teammates for hustling down the court. The team moved the ball well around the perimeter and inside-out, resulting in some outstanding interior shooting by Jackson and Onuaku, and some excellent perimeter shooting by Rautins, Johnson, and Triche.

4) Experience, experience, experience. Syracuse did have three new starters in the squad in 2009-2010, but Rautins was a fifth year senior, and Johnson a fourth year junior, both with plenty of collegiate experience. Jackson was in this third year of the program, and Onuaku in this fifth. Scoop Jardine came off the bench as a third year sophomore. Kris Joseph was in his second season as a reserve with plenty of experience his freshman year, leaving only Brandon Triche as the inexperienced player. This team had a lot of experience, particularly in the correct positions.

5) An easier schedule in 2009-2010 than in 2008-2009. Now don’t get me wrong; last season was a very difficult season, and Syracuse was outstanding in playing that season. Last year they played 10 games versus top 25 teams, and the Orange went 8-2, including 6-0 versus top 10 teams. The only losses to top 25 teams occurred when Arinze Onuaku was no longer effectively in the squad. In 2008-2009, they played 15 games versus top 25 teams; that is an absurb number, and the Orange went a respectable 7-8. They played 4 games against top 5 teams, going 1-3.

Clearly, a lot of things went well for the Orange last season. Addition by subtraction. Maturation/improvement from all the key players; that doesn’t always happen. I team that bought into the ‘team concept’ and played outstanding team defense.

The coaching staff is back, and that constant had led to the ongoing success in the Boeheim era. The single concept of Jim Boeheim being there every year is absolutely vital for the program’s continued success. Keeping the key assistants in Mike Hopkins, Bernie Fine and Rob Murphy is also vital.

Syracuse is bringing in some top flight talent, which is a change from last year where there were no top 50 recruits in SU’s starting lineup. Syracuse does have some experience coming back, which again will help them out. Scoop Jardine will be a fourth year junior, and Rick Jackson a pure senior. Kris Joseph will be in his third year, and was third in minutes for the Orange last year. Many, including myself, are expecting Joseph to continue to elevate his game. Brandon Triche now has a year of collegiate basketball under his belt, and Mookie Jones is now in his third year with the program. James Southerland had a year of practicing against Onuaku and Johnson last year, so I am eager to see how he has improved.

The incoming freshman are highly touted. Fab Melo is being counted on for some valuable minutes at the center. Replacing Onuaku will be very difficult, and Melo is a different style player, and only a freshman. Freshman centers are often the least disciplined players in their first years, having to make the biggest adjustments, so it will be asking a lot for Melo to be star in year one. But he could be. Baye Moussa Keita, a lanky but athletic freshman, will back him up.

Syracuse will be a little bit smaller at the top of the key with Jardine (6’2”) replacing Rautins (6’5”); but Jardine is not inexperienced at the zone. Freshman Dion Waiters, at 6’4”, should be a nice piece of the zone at the top, if he understands the concept.

The loss of Onuaku in the back of the zone will hurt a lot. Arinze took up a lot of space horizontally, and had tremendous strength. Rick Jackson will likely play some center this year, and has a similar build, but that removes size from Jackson’s former position. Melo, at 7’, would definitely fill up space, but he will have a lot to learn. Joseph at 6’7” should be a good replacement for Johnson. Sophomore James Sutherland and freshman CJ Fair, both at 6’8”, should be able to provide some wingspan on the back of that zone.

If the returning players from last year can convince the new players to buy into the concept that won so many games last year, and some of the players continue to develop, 2010-2011 can be another exciting year.