Showing posts with label NBA Draft. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NBA Draft. Show all posts

Saturday, June 28, 2014

2014 NBA Draft for the Orange

Three starting Syracuse basketball players had an opportunity to be drafted in the 2014 NBA draft.  The draft went okay for Tyler Ennis, while both Jerami Grant and C.J. Fair have to be disappointed in the results.
I think Ennis made the right choice financially. His game was stellar for Syracuse at the college level, and I wish we had three more years of him with the Orange.  But I’m not sure his game would have improved significantly enough over the next year or two to make him better than the 18th overall pick, and if he didn’t continue to develop in those years, this ‘potential’ would have decreased as the reality of who and what he was became more clear.  He could have actually dropped by staying around.  There are some strong points to his game, but he needs to improve his shooting, and he needs to prove he can consistently play up tempo if needed.  In 2013-2014 those were unknowns and thus ‘potentials’ he could build upon; but if he did not improve in those areas next year, that would cause him to drop.

Ennis has the guaranteed money for 2014-2015, at about $1.24 million (Forbes article)  for the next two years, and that could go four years if his NBA team wants him that long.  That’s $1.24 million this year, instead of no income, and $4.96 million over four years.  If he stayed around one more season and went 15th in the draft in 2015, he would have made about $1.57 million a year, or $6.28 million over four years.  BUT, by going in the draft his year, he would be an unrestricted free agent in 2018-2019 and free to earn what he could get on the market, instead of making the $1.57 million he would have had going in next year’s draft at the hypothetical #15.  Assuming he is successful, he almost certainly would be making more money in 2018-19 in the first year of a free agent contract, than the $1.57 million.

You can use the math of any of the top picks, and I think realistically Ennis would never go higher than #10.  But when you take the impact of getting the $1.23 million this year guaranteed (which is money he would never be able to make up because his career will now be one year longer) and that his free agency will start one year earlier, it’s the smart move.

Jerami Grant , on the other hand, has to be regretting the move.  Assuming he was in good academic standing, he would have had an opportunity to be the central star on the 2014-2015 Syracuse Orange.  He came into the 2014 NBA draft with a ton of potential, but a lot of areas with need for improvement. He could jump explosively and leap quickly, he blocks well, rebounds well, and has a very long reach.  But he needs to dramatically improve his shooting, ball handling and defense.  The real skills he has in 2014 are not uncommon skills in the NBA; they are unteachable, which is what makes him attractive, but it’s not a unique skill set.

Grant ended up the 39th overall pick.  He is not going to get a guaranteed contract, and he’s going to make less than $800k (possibly around $500k) if he makes the team at all. Philadelphia is a good fit for him because it is in a youth movement, but he left a lot of money on the table. If he does sign with the 76’ers and stays on the team, he will have earn about $2.5 million over his first four years of his NBA contract.   Grant has the athletic ability and potential to have moved into a lottery position in the 2015 draft, and he could have earned that amount of guaranteed money in his first season.    He could've earned $10 million over his first four years in the NBA, instead of $2.5 million, and he would be unlikely to make up that difference in the first year of his free agency.

Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim thought Grant could have made All-America next season, and I agree with that assessment.  

"As far as what he should do, I think, what I think if he came back, he would have had a good chance to make 1st-team All-American based on what he can do and what we would ask him to do next year," Boeheim said. "I think that would have helped his draft stock quite a bit. But players have to decide what they want."  

C.J. Fair made the right decision to stay another year in college. He was not going to be drafted in the 2013 NBA draft. He got another year under his belt to improve his game, and I hope he finished his degree.  The 2013-2014 season did not elevate Fair to a level where he got drafted.  He struggled to score once he became the primary scoring option for the Orange, and his perimeter shooting decreased as he was now a focus of the opposing defense.  Fair struggled at times to be the ‘go to’ man for Syracuse, and really wasn’t able to carry the team on his back many had hoped.  He was a good player last year, but not NBA draft worthy.  

At least Fair is an undrafted free agent and has the opportunity to try to find the right fit himself. 

Fair is a lesson to what could have happened to Ennis if he had stayed.  Fair did improve his senior year, but the ceiling for his potential also dropped as it became clearer what he could and could not do. 

Good luck to all three former Orange on their future professional endeavors, whether it is in the NBA, another league, or another business venture altogether.  

Friday, June 25, 2010

Johnson and Rautins Taken in the 2010 NBA Draft

Congratulations to Wes Johnson and Andy Rautins, both who were chosen in the NBA Draft last evening. Johnson was the #4 overall pick, taken by the Minnesota Timberwolves. He will be joining former Syracuse player Jonny Flynn, taken with the sixth overall pick last year. Rautins was taken in the second round with the 38th pick overall. His father Leo was the 17th pick in the 1st round of the 1983 draft, taken by the Philadelphia 76’ers. Johnson and Rautins are the 53rd and 54th Syracuse players ever drafted.

Johnson is the highest Syracuse draft pick since Carmelo Anthony was taken with the 3rd overall pick in the 2003 draft. He joins an elite group of Syracuse players taken with one of the top 4 picks of the draft; the other four were Anthony (3rd, 2003), Dave Bing (2nd, 1966), Derrick Coleman (1st, 1990) and Billy Owens (3rd, 1991).

Rautins and Johnson are the first Syracuse duo drafted in the same year since Etan Thomas (12th pick) and Jason Hart (49th pick) were both taken in 2000. It is the highest two players have been taken out of Syracuse, since 1991 when Owens was taken #3 and LeRon Ellis taken at #22. Syracuse last had three players in a draft was in 1986, when the draft went more than two rounds. Pearl Washington was #13 (1st round), Raf Addison #39 (2nd round) and Wendell Alexis (#59, 3rd round).

Three is top number of players ever drafted out of Syracuse in one year. Besides 1986, it has happened twice before. In 1983 Leo Rautins went in the 1st round, Erich Santifer in the 3rd round and Tony Bruin in the 7th. And in 1981 Danny Schayes went in the 1st round, Eddie Moss in the 4th and Marty Headd in the 9th.

Andy Rautins is the fifth Syracuse player drafted by the New York Knicks. Gary Clark was first, as a 3rd round pick in 1957. Marty Headd (9th round), Howard Triche (6th round) and John Wallace (1st round, 18th overall pick) were the other players.

In the Jim Boeheim era (1977-present), there have been 34 players drafted by the NBA. 16 of those were first round picks, 10 were second round picks, and 8 were taken in the now defunct 3rd through 9th rounds.

On the purely trivial side, Wes Johnson is the second Johnson from Syracuse ever drafted in the NBA. Dave Johnson was taken in the 1st round in 1991. Andy Rautins is the also second Rautins taken from Syracuse; his uncle George Rautins was drafted in 1975 by the Buffalo Braves out of Niagara University.

Both Johnson and Rautins have a strong upside to their game. Johnson, who made tremendous improvements after arriving at Syracuse, should be very interesting to follow in the NBA. He’s a rare combination of a great athlete who has an outstanding perimeter shot. If he learns to put the ball on the floor, he could be down right scary for opposing defenders.

Rautins improved significantly each year in college and was an outstanding perimeter shooter last season, despite being targeted by opposing defenses. He is also an outstanding passer who has a great feel for the game. Rautins is not as athletic as other draft picks, and may lack some of the lateral quickness, but you know that he’ll keep working on improving in those areas. And that international experience will continue to help him. This is a kid who came to college highly unnoticed, blew out his knee, and yet still managed to find time to put on 25-30 lbs of muscle, improve his quickness, improve his all around game dramatically, while impressing enough NBA scouts to get drafted.

Thursday, June 25, 2009

Flynn Goes Sixth in NBA Draft

Congratulations to Jonny Flynn, who became the 52nd Syracuse Orange basketball player to be drafted by the NBA. Flynn was the 6th overall player taken tonight when the Minnesota Timberwolves took him in the first round.

Flynn is the highest drafted player from Syracuse since Carmelo Anthony was drafted as the third overall player in the 2003 NBA Draft. Derrick Coleman holds the distinction of being the only Orangeman drafted with the top pick of the draft, when the New Jersey Nets took him in 2003. Flynn is the 15th Orangeman taken in the first round of the draft.

Flynn also earns the distinction of being the second highest drafted guard in Syracuse history. Dave Bing went to Detroit with the second overall pick in 1966.

Dave Bing 2nd (1966)
Pearl Washington 13th (1986)
Jack Kiley 13th (1951)
Sherman Douglas 28th (1989)
Dennis Duval 30th (1974)
Lawrence Moten 36th (1995)
Jason Hart 49th (2000)
Erich Santifer 55th (1983)
Jimmy Lee 79th (1975)
Greg Kohls 99th (1972)
Eddie Moss 50th (1981)
Marty Headd 198th (1981)

There’s some notable names on that list, especially Washington and Douglas. Of course, success in college does not necessarily translate to success in the NBA, and draft picks often reflect what NBA coaches think of that potential, but still it is very high accolade for Flynn to be sixth overall.

Despite the fact that Syracuse had some ‘down’ years in the mid 2000s, the NBA draft still liked the Orange. This decade saw the following:

Etan Thomas 12th (2000)
Jason Hart 49th (2000)
Damone Brown 44th (2001)
Carmelo Anthony 3rd (2003)
Hakim Warrick 19th (2005)
Demetris Nichols 53rd (2007)
Donte’ Green 28th (2008
Jonny Flynn 6th (2009)

The number of players drafted from 2000-2009 may not jump out at you, but look at the number of Syracuse players drafted in the first two rounds, for each decade:

1950s – 1 player
1960s – 1 player
1970s – 3 players
1980s – 8 players
1990s – 7 players
2000s – 8 players

If we narrow that to just the first round:
1950s – None
1960s – 1 player
1970s – 1 player
1980s – 4 players
1990s – 5 players
2000s – 4 players

So the 2000s are looking very kindly, from an historical perspective to the Orange who have been drafted.

Now, if we look at the period of 1986-1996, what are really the ‘glory days’ of the Boeheim era, the numbers do change a little bit. There were 11 players drafted in the first two rounds during that period, including seven in the first round, and Coleman as the number one pick overall. Other college teams can boast bigger numbers (Duke once had five first round picks in one year), but from an Orange perspective that was the best era.

But back to Flynn. Congratulations, and best of luck in the NBA.

Saturday, June 28, 2008

Greene goes 28th

Congratulations to Donte' Greene for being selected in the 1st round of the NBA draft last Thursday, by the Memphis Grizzlies. His time in Memphis was very short, as he ended up being traded to the Houston Rockets overnight.

Greene was probably somewhat disappointed as he did not end up being a lottery selection, as was originally projected by many back mid season. Yet, being a first round pick is going to put some nice change in his pocket, so I don’t think he will be too disappointed.

Greene is the 15th former Orangemen to be selected in the 1st round of the NBA draft, the 51st Orangemen ever drafted, and the first Orangeman drafted in the first round since Hakim Warrick was the 19th pick in 2005 by the same Memphis Grizzlies. With the assumption that Greene does make the NBA roster and play next year for Houston (or any other NBA team), he will be the 36th former Syracuse player to play in the NBA.

The first were Bob Shaddock and Lew Spicer in 1947; Shaddock would play a mere two games with the Syracuse Nationals, and Spicer four with the Providence Steamrollers. The first Syracuse player to be a regular in the NBA was Bullet Billy Gabor in 1949. Gabor would make an impact in the NBA being named to the all rookie team his first season, make the NBA All-Star team in 1953, and win the NBA Championship with the Nationals in 1955.

The greatest Syracuse player in NBA history is Hall of Famer Dave Bing, who was the 2nd overall pick in the 1966 draft by the Detroit Pistons. Bing would score 18,327 points in his 12 year NBA career, averaging 20.3 ppg and 6.0 assists per game, and play in seven NBA All-Star games.

Danny Schayes played more games than any former Orangemen in NBA history with 1,138 games over 18 seasons. Schayes started for a few seasons, but really found a solid role as a reserve center, with his ability to play smart basketball, make the free throws and jump shots, and grab rebounds as needed.

Derrick Coleman is the only Orangemen drafted number 1 overall in the NBA draft, going to the New Jersey Nets in 1990. Now Coleman was a bust as a number one pick; he never reached the stardom predicted for him, and he had the talent and ability to be a great NBA player. That is not to say Coleman was a bust in the NBA. He did have a solid fifteen year career, averaging 16.5 ppg and 9.3 rebounds a game. Those aren’t bad numbers, and he was the NBA’s Rookie of the Year in 1991, and on the All-Star team in 1994. They’re just not the numbers expected from the number one overall pick.

Other Orangemen have gone on to productive NBA careers. Sherman Douglas played 12 years, averaging 11.0 ppg and 5.9 assists per game, showing that he could master the alley-oop pass in the professional leagues as well as he did at college.

Louis Orr played 8 seasons averaging 9.8 ppg, Billy Owens played 11 seasons averaging 11.7 ppg, though injuries hounded him throughout his career. Rony Seikaly played a solid eleven seasons scoring 14.7 ppg, along with 9.5 rebounds a game. And John Wallace played 7 seasons, averaging 7.6 ppg.

Greene is going to join 6 current Orangemen who are in the NBA (or at least on the fringes of it). Carmelo Anthony is starring out in Denver, and barring injury, will easily be Syracuse’s second best NBA player ever, and possibly even the best (time will tell).

Jason Hart is going into his eighth season, now with the Utah Jazz. Etan Thomas as been a solid player for the Washington Wizards, and should be back from his injury this year. Hakim Warrick almost had Greene as a teammate down in Memphis; instead Warrick will need to battle a slew of new players brought in by draft day trades. Darryl Watkins and Demetris Nichols are both struggling to stay on NBA teams; Watkins played nine games last season, and Nichols played 14.

It will be interesting to see how Donte' Greene’s ends up. He is clearly not ready today, and NBA scouts took note as his stoke dropped as draft day approached and his workouts were not as impressive as other players. A few months ago I suggested that going professional was perhaps not a bad idea for Greene, since he risked having his stock plummet with another season at Syracuse if he did not learn to rebound or play defense. Considering that his stock dropped anyhow, I would have to recant that, and say that Greene would definitely have been better off staying at Syracuse one more year, and improved his overall draft position.

Donte', thank you for your time at Syracuse, and good luck in the NBA.