2011-12 versus 2009-10

The 2011-2012 season ended painfully, with an Elite Eight loss to Ohio State.  The pain of the loss was not so much the particular game, which in itself was horribly officiated on both ends of the court. No, the pain was watching a tremendously accomplished Syracuse team compete without one of its key players in Fab Melo.  That squad was one of the deepest squads in Syracuse history, but the depth at center was not present.  There was a big drop off between Melo and Baye Keita, and there was no real backup to Keita.

I never wrote a recap on this blog about last season, because it was too difficult to do. It also was eerily similar to two seasons prior, the 2009-2010 season, where an equally great team lost its center, Arinze Onuaku, for the post season. That also cost that team in the post season.

Those two teams were great squads on the hill, both achieving #1 rankings at some point in the season, both winning the Big East regular season, and both earning #1 seeds in the NCAA tournament.  They had different paths to those seeds.  The 2009-10 squad started the season unranked, went 8-2 versus top 25 teams, and climbed to #1 by March 2^nd.  The 2011-2012 squad started the year with high expectations with a pre-season rank of #5, and never dropped below that all season, rising to #1 by December 17^th.  They would go 6-1 versus top 25 teams.

There is no doubt that the 2011-2012 squad accomplished more. They went 34-3, reached the Elite Eight, and tied the Big East season mark with a 17-1 record. The 2009-2010 squad was impressive at 30-5, reaching the Sweet Sixteen and going 15-3 in the Big East. But you have to acknowledge that last year’s squad accomplished more.

The question I want to propose is which team was better? If the two squads were to meet on the court, who would win?

The 2009-10 squad went seven players deep with no other player appearing in half the games.  This was a team with well-defined roles for all the players, and with a lot of NCAA experience.  There were two fifth-year seniors in Andy Rautins and Arinze Onuaku, and a fourth-year junior in Wesley Johnson.  Rick Johnson was a junior, Scoop Jardine a third-year sophomore, and Kris Joseph a sophomore.  Brandon Triche was the only inexperienced player as a true freshman.

This squad was extremely proficient at running the half-court offense with Andy Rautins running most of the offense.  Syracuse’s inside-out game was outstanding, with Onuaku and Jackson pounding the ball inside with high precision (67% and 59% respectively).  Johnson and Joseph were extremely adept at driving to the hoop and skying about the rim.  Rautins, Triche and Jardine were all good ball handlers, and because of Rautins’ adeptness at making the three point shot from deep range, teams had to focus on him on the perimeter and on the big men inside. This gave open shots to Triche, Johnson and Jardine, and Syracuse was extremely good at making the three point shot.  Between those four, they made 41% of their three point shots (202 of 498).   

The team had four good free throw shooters in Rautins, Johnson, Jardine and Joseph.  Rautins was extremely good in making 82% of his charity shots.   The team was prone to some careless turnovers from Jardine, and some overly aggressive passing from Rautins.

However, it was the team’s defense that made them a #1 team.  Their ‘Shut It Down’ defense would clamp down on opposing teams, and prevent them from scoring for 5 to 8 minutes of the game.   Onuaku and Jackson were not especially tall, but they were very wide bodied and took up a lot of space along the baseline at 235 lbs and 265 lbs respectively.  Triche (6’4”) and Rautins (6’5”) were tall and rangy up front, preventing easy looks from opposing players inside.  Johnson and Joseph were explosive from the wings intercepting passes and taking off down the court.   The team was not particularly adept at shot blocking, but very good at maintaining its defensive positioning, and good at rebounding.

Let’s go forward two years to the 2011-2012 team.  Syracuse would go 9-10 players deep each game.  A very explosive backcourt with a four man rotation of Brandon Triche, Scoop Jardine, Dion Waiters and Michael Carter-Williams. It was also a very experience backcourt with Triche a junior (and three year starter), Jardine a fifth-year senior, and Waiters a sophomore.  Jardine and Waiters were very adept at tipping passes and running the fast break, something Syracuse did extremely well. 

Kris Joseph provided the interior offensive game with his drives to the hoop, though the lane was not nearly as clear as he had found it two years prior. Syracuse did not have any great three point shooters, but they had five guys who could make about 35% of their shots in Jardine, Triche, Waiters, Joseph and James Southerland. 

The team was extremely good at shot block and altering shots, led by Fab Melo and his three blocks a game. They were also very adept as a team at stealing the ball, and with the ten man rotation, the players were always fresh; Joseph led the team in minutes played and that was about 32/game.   C.J. Fair did a little bit of everything to make sure the job was getting done.

The team did not run its half-court offense very well.  It relied on the fast break to generate most of its points.  However, the guards were very adept at taking their defenders one-on-one and driving into the paint to make things happen, particularly Waiters and Triche. Waiters was extremely explosive, and Triche very strong.  The team had four good free throw shooters in Triche, Waiters, Joseph and Fair.  It hurt that Jardine struggled at the line, since he played the point, but he would often get removed late in the game to prevent that situation.

The two teams would be an interesting matchup.  Up front would be a tough matchup both ways. Up front you would basically have Rautins/Triche/Jardine versus Waiters/Triche/Jardine.  The latter three would be more adept at driving the lane (particularly Waiters), and in pestering offensive players. The former three would be more adept at preventing players from getting into the lane, and in shooting deep (with Rautins).  I would have to give an edge to last year’s squad up front because of Waiters and the more experienced Triche/Jardine combo.  It would not be a huge edge.

The interior play is where I think the 2009-2010 squad would have a big edge. Wesley Johnson was the  Big East player of the year. He was explosive at getting to the hoop, and could pull outside for three.  Onuaku and Jackson were polished interior scorers, and they knew how to get offensive and defensive rebounds.  Joseph was a better player in 2011-12 than in 2009-10, but he struggled last year without other players to open the lane for him.  Christmas and Melo were very limited offensively (as was Keita); Fair would be the only other scoring threat inside, and he would pick up those garbage points. 

 

I think the size and experience of Jackson and Onuaku would take a lot of advantage over the inexperience of Christmas and Melo.  It’s true Melo would block some shots, but big body players are often good at avoiding the blocks by creating separation and going strong to the hoop. 

Both teams would be able to run the court, and run it well.  I don’t think fatigue would come into play for the 2009-10 squad, because they played their whole season with only 7 players anyhow.  I think the answers to two questions would determine the outcome.

1^st – could last year’s squad limit the second and third chance shots that the 2009-2010 team specialized in with its rebounding?

2^nd – could last year’s squad generate enough fast break opportunities to limit its exposure in the half court? 

For those who watched last year’s games, you would know that the team struggled all year to get rebounds, and prevent second chances.  I don’t see how the 2009-2010 squad would be any different, and they would probably get their fair share of second shot opportunities.

And I do not think last year’s team would generate enough fast break opportunities to offset  their half-court liabilities against a team that was ‘Shut It Down’ in the half-court defense. Basically, we would have a team that struggled in the half court set (2011-2012) trying to score against a team that specialized in stopping that exact same thing. 

I think 2009-2010 comes out on top. That’s not a knock on last year’s team. I thought the 2009-2010 team was going to win the National Championship. Their teamwork and unselfishness were outstanding (and much of that carried over to last year’s team).  That 2009-2010’s biggest weakness was they had no player outside of their top seven, and that came back to get them. 

You Cannot Play Them All

Jim Boeheim cannot win praise from his detractors, regardless of what he does.   You would think Syracuse was mired in an underperforming season with a record of 20-10 instead of being 33-2, ranked #2 in the country with a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament.  Fans love to second guess head coaches, and Syracuse fans are no different.

Historically Boeheim has gone only 7-8 players deep on his roster, preferring to keep his top talent on the court as much as possible.  This season, he has gone 10 players deep most of the season and yet he still gets criticized for not giving some players more playing time.

I like Brandon Triche’s game a lot. He is likely the team’s best three point shooter  and clearly their best free throw shooter.  He is the best rebounding guard on the team, and while not flashy, he is a solid point guard, and he is a three year starter with tons of experience.  Yet he sits a lot, and that is quite reasonable considering the best offensive talent on this team is the backcourt players.  You have to find time for Scoop Jardine and for Dion Waiters; Boeheim does an excellent job of getting them all playing time. 

A faction of the fan base criticize Boeheim because he does not play Michael Carter-Williams more.  MCW plays in most games, about 3-7 minutes of time.  Considering there are three talented guards ahead of him in terms of experience, and current talent level, I think it says a world about how good Boeheim thinks he is by getting him that time.  He is getting some seasoning and experience, and being handled well by being put into situations he can succeed, and being held from situations where he can fail.  I think it will be invaluable for him come next season; and if the need arose this season, he would play more.  My guess is MCW will be a start for Syracuse and in the NBA someday.  Right now, that is not his role.

Other fans question why Boeheim doesn’t play to his strength and run a three guard offense. That is looking at only half the picture.  A three guard offense would definitely help the offense; there is no doubt about it.  However, what is the greatest strength of this team? It’s zone defense, a defense so good that a lot of fans in forums call it the best Syracuse defense they have ever seen.  Syracuse cannot play that zone with three guards; that would require Triche or Waiters to play the wing and guard a forward, which could be disastrous.  Do you really want to take away the best asset of the team, their zone defense, in order to get more playing time for a guard?  And going to man-to-man is not the solution; the team does not practice that well enough to effectively use it and Boeheim and his staff recruit players ideal for zone defense, not for man-to-man.

I have seen many fans question why Trevor Cooney was redshirted, when the team could clearly use his three point shooting.  Boeheim cannot currently find enough time for a talented Michael Carter-Williams on the court, and you want him to find time for Cooney?  Furthermore, we do not even know how good Cooney is with defense or ball handling at this point in his career.  I do not know how you would find reasonable playing time for him, and having him lose a season as the fifth guard makes no sense.

Rakeem Christmas is the interesting player in the mix. I know some fans are looking at Christmas’ Kansas State effort of 11 rebounds and 3 blocked shots as evidence that Boeheim should have played him a lot more.  Those numbers are huge, and should not be taken lightly.  I do think Christmas is far more comfortable at center than forward.  I also think Christmas is a better rebounder than Melo, in fact, much better, and likely a better offensive player.  Christmas has been playing organized basketball for years, where as Melo only a few season, and I think Christmas is more comfortable with the ball in his hands. He is by no means an offensive juggernaut.   Christmas is okay at defense in the center position, but does not have the dominating shot blocking, the body size, nor the zone understanding that Melo does.   So there is a loss of defense without Melo, which would be expected as Melo was the Big East Defensive Player of the Year.

I think Boeheim and his staff want Christmas to develop into a power forward, a role Christmas is not comfortable with now.  I think Christmas is likely failing his defensive assignments as a forward, and is not the offensive threat that Joseph, Fair or Southerland is, so he is the fourth forward behind  three other veteran forwards.  I would like to see a couple more minutes out of Christmas each game, and he does have a very quick hook from Boeheim.  However, in a best case scenario, Christmas was not going to get too many more playing minutes at the forward position. 

Southerland needed the playing time to open up the Syracuse perimeter game, and he has developed his rebounding and defensive skills.  Fans love C.J. Fair, and Fair usually brings that spark to the table, along with adding in all the statistics stuffing needing to help the team.  Kris Joseph is the best scoring forward on the team, and the most experienced player on the team. 

You could have played Christmas instead of Baye Keita at center, but remember they want to develop Christmas a forward which will help him in his pursuit of a professional career, and Keita can only play center.  Keita needs to develop too, and Syracuse needed Melo on the court as much as they could.

I think minor changes could have been made at various points in the season, but they would have been minor, and with no impact on the season results.  Remember, Syracuse is 33-2. 

Some tidbits of information:

Rakeem Christmas has now started five games at center, and he has had rebound totals of 9, 1, 7, 7 and 11.  Fab Melo averages only 5.8 rebounds a game.  Of course, shot blockers are often out of rebounding position, so you trade off one ability for another.

James Southerland has scored 43 points in the four post season games, shooting 8 of 17 from three point range, and chipping in 24 rebounds, and 8 blocks. 

Where as C.J. Fair disappeared to? The man was a stat sheet stuffer all season.  In the postseason run, Fair is 2-17 from the field, including misses from point blank range, and open 10 foot jumpers.  He has 17 rebounds, but 11 came against UNC Asheville; only 6 in the other three games combined.   This has coincided with him starting, but that cannot be the reason as he did not suffer when he started three games during Melo’s first suspension.

Triche found his shooting touch as the regular season ended, but he has struggled in the post season. He is 1 of 10 from three point range, and surprisingly 4 of 10 from the free throw line.

Dion Waiters struggled for much of the season at the free throw line, but has shot 16 of 18 from the charity stripe in the post season.   He has also made 25 of 45 shots during that time frame, and has had only three turnovers.

Scoop Jardine has made seven of his eight free throw attempts in the post season, and has 17 assists the past three games. However, he has also had 14 turnovers the past three games, which has to stop.

Kris Joseph, who has logged more playing time than any other Syracuse player this post season, has continued his month long shooting problems. Joseph is 8 for 31 in the post season from the field, including 2 for 13 from three point range.  He was held reboundless against Cincinnati and had only one rebound against Kansas State yesterday. 

All Big East Selections 2012

I cannot complain about the Syracuse All Big East Team selections.  I had guessed three Syracuse players would make the list earlier today, possibly four, and Syracuse ended up with three.

 

Kris Joseph earned All Big East First Team selection, becoming the 22^nd Orangeman to earn that selection.  Scoop Jardine earned Second Team recognition, and Dion Waiters Third Team.

 

I thought Fab Melo may get a nod as a Third Team or Honorable Mention because of his defensive presence, but with an eighteen team league, and only 21 selections made, that is a lot of competition.

 

I would hate to be a South Florida fan. Your team is 12-6 in conference, 19-12 overall with an RPI of 43, and you are not considered a lock for the NCAA by the national media experts.  Then you get no players receiving any recognition in the All Big East First, Second, Third or Honorable Mention selections. Meanwhile Pitt (5-13 Big East, 16-15 overall), Villanova (5-13, 12-18), Providence (4-14, 15-16) and DePaul (3-15, 12-18), all land one player on one of the selections. Only Rutgers (6-12, 14-17) was shut out like South Florida.

 

Syracuse has done historically well in the All Big East selections.  They have 78 selections overall, far more than anyone else, with Connecticut second with 64.  And the Syracuse selections have historically been high recognitions. 35 times a Syracuse player has made first team; Georgetown is next with only 23.  23 times a Syracuse player has made second team; Connecticut is next with 20. 

 

The selections have been warranted. Syracuse is by far the winningest program in Big East history with 401 victories; Georgetown is next at 374. Syracuse has won 10 Big East Regular Season titles, matched only by UConn.

 

There have been some notable oversights in history, most recent being last year when Rick Jackson failed to make First Team, despite being the defensive player of the year and leading the conference in scoring.  But all in all, the coaches do well in their selections.

30-1! A Season for the Ages

The Orange wrapped up the regular season in style, sweeping the Louisville Cardinals with a 58-49 victory at the Carrier Dome.  Fittingly, in a season where the team really plays as a team, senior point guard Scoop Jardine was held scoreless, and was happy about it.

 

Syracuse is 30-1, establishing a new benchmark for wins in a regular season, besting their record of 28 set two years ago. The school record for total wins in a season is 31, set in 1986-1987, and the team should pass that mark with their post season activity.  Their one loss in the regular season is the fewest ever since post season activity began, and regardless of how their season ends, they will finish the year with their fewest losses since at least 1934-1935 when the team went 15-2.

 

The Orange finished 19-0 at home, only their second undefeated season in the Carrier Dome. The previous effort was from the 2002-2003 national championship team.

 

The games also marked the 71^st time the Carrier Dome has had a crowd in excess of 30,000 fans.  Syracuse has now run their record to 48-23 in those games, including winning 11 of the last 14 big crowd games.

 

The Big East Tournament looms ahead, and the Orange are fortunate to get the double round bye. We will not know the Orange opponent until the end of day Wednesday. It will certainly be a team that is playing well, and playing for its post season life.  It will be another tough game.

Syracuse completed this season 5-0 against top 25 teams. The Big East was down compared to the past few seasons, and Syracuse has played its fewest top 25 ranked teams since the 2001-2002 season. However, the postseason action will certainly bump that number up a few places.  And though the number of ranked Big East teams was not as high as it has been the past few years, that does not mean the Big East was an easy schedule. Far from it.

 

First of all, comparing any league to the level the Big East played the past few seasons is a ridiculous standard. Secondly, ask talented teams like Pitt, Villanova and UConn about how difficult they thought this schedule was. If you are not ready to play each and every game, you will end up on the losing side of the ledger.

 

The Orange are 30-1.  That is absolutely remarkable; I do not care who you play. That record is a testament to the players and to the Syracuse coaching staff.  It speaks well of the leadership of the team leaders Scoop Jardine and Kris Joseph. And it speaks well of the character of their teammates who bought into what they were selling.

 

The Big East post season accolades should be very interesting.  Several factors will come into play with Syracuse players getting consideration: (1) how much do the coaches recognize the top players focusing on the team effort instead of personal glory; (2) how much weight does the 17-1 conference record carry; (3) how much will the deep play of Syracuse and the lack of ‘go to’ players split the votes for Syracuse players?  And of course, in an eighteen team league, it’s tough to get any recognition with that much competition.

 

I think Jim Boeheim should win the Big East Coach of the Year. The Orange were expected to finish tied atop the Big East, but they greatly exceeded anyone’s expectations on how they did it. If you throw in the backdrop of the Bernie Fine situation, and the short term Fab Melo suspension, you have a coach who won the conference, overcome obstacles, and overachieved. What more can you ask? I know Buzz Williams (Marquette) and Mike Brey (Notre Dame) had outstanding seasons, each with their own story, but Boeheim should win it. He won’t. It will be Brey or Williams.

 

Syracuse’s zone defense has been the story throughout college basketball all season, and Fab Melo’s importance to that defense was undeniable, as evidenced by the impact on the team when he was missing for three games.  I think the team sacrificed individual offensive glory for the team defense, and I think coaches recognize that. I think Melo does win the Big East defensive player of the year.

 

If Melo is going to win the defensive player of the year, he has got to be a lock on the Most Improved Player.  The improvement in his game from last season to this season is well documented, and well known.  I would be shocked if he does not get this recognition.

 

The Big East Sixth man award will be interesting. First of all C.J. Fair and Dion Waiters will split the votes between one another. I personally do not consider Fair a sixth man.  He does not start the game, but he does replace Rakeem Christmas very early in the game, and he keeps that position for the rest of the game.  It is not as if Boeheim uses Fair to give Joseph a breather at any point.  Rather he uses Southerland to give Joseph and Fair a breather.  Fair is really a starter who just does not happen to start. Waiters on the other hand is a sixth man. He splits time at both the point and shooting guard positions, and may partner with either Triche or Jardine on the court. He often plays more minutes than either of them, but not always. I would vote for Waiters as the Sixth Man, and I think he will win it; but the split vote and a perception that he is not really a sixth man could hurt him.

 

The All Big East Team selections are the biggest mystery to me.  I would suspect that Joseph, Jardine and Waiters will all make selections to one of the teams, and I would hope Jardine and Joseph make first team. Melo might squeak in on the third team. We’ll have to see when results are released this week.

 

However the post season accolades go, it has been a great regular season, and now it’s time to gear up for some post season fun!

 

Let’s Go Orange!

The Season is Over

Syracuse earned their loss tonight to Marquette. Syracuse consistently made poor decisions all game, was sloppy with its ball handling and lacked the hustle of its opponent. It’s a shame to see the season end that way, a bad taste to have to sit in the fans and players mouths for the summer. The ‘unfinished business’ will remain that way.

I’ll give Marquette credit for its game plan. They executed their ball movement well, with sharp crisp passes. They double teamed Rick Jackson all night and stymied the Orange offense.

I feel bad for Rick Jackson. I hate to see a senior’s career end, particularly on a night where he is having a bad game. Jackson was clearly frustrated all night, and though his shooting wasn’t bad (3 for 6), he only had 6 attempts, and he had only four rebounds. The box score is showing he has 3 turnovers, but it seemed like more.

Scoop had more than his share of ‘Scoop moments’ tonight. Lord knows what he was thinking at the end of the first half when he jacked a three point attempt with 19 seconds to go, and the Orange had the opportunity to run the clock down for one shot. Instead SU missed, and Marquette scored. He is being credited with only 3 turnovers too, but it surely seemed like more. You knew he was going to rush a three point attempt at the end when the Orange were down by three… and he did, even though he was guarded, there was plenty of time, and the Orange had no rebounding position.

The foul calls seemed lopsided but I don’t recall seeing bad calls or missed calls. I think it was a case of the more aggressive team drawing more fouls. Marquette consistently beat the Orange down the court; they did it at least twice after the Orange made a basket. Shameful for Syracuse!

The future for the Orange should be bright. Dion Waiters is going to be one heck of an offensive player in the future; if he can learn to play solid defense he’ll be outstanding all around. James Southerland showed flashes tonight. He has a summer to grow and mature some more. C.J. Fair was hampered by fouls tonight, and was pretty much a non-factor, but we have all seen his ability to stuff the stat sheet all year long.

The team frustrated me all season long with their sloppy play at times, and tonight is really a fitting ending to the season.

15-0

The 2010-2011 version of the Syracuse Orange have entered a very elite group of Syracuse teams that started out 15-0. This year’s team is only the fifth squad to accomplish that feat in the 111 year history of Syracuse basketball.

It will be interesting to see how good this squad becomes. They were definitely an overrated team early in the year (to quote a Hall of Fame coach we all are quite familiar with!), and they managed to stay unbeaten in spite of themselves. The team started to gel, and now has impressive runaway wins over Michigan State, and Big East foes Providence and Notre Dame.

This years squad is definitely a versatile group of players, with a deeper than usual bench filling in for different roles. Now that James Southerland has the confidence in his perimeter shot and has shown some spots of inspired defense, the missing pieces of the squad are starting to get filled in. I would still like to see Scoop Jardine pass the ball more often and be a little more careful with it, despite his nine assists the last game. Better defense from Dion Waiters would be great (though he is improving), and a good 20 minute effort in some game, any game, by Fab Melo would really inspire me. The fact that Kris Joseph is hitting his 3's is very encouraging for the long term progress of this team.

But they team is playing shutdown defense like they did last year, and quickly converting to their transition game for easy baskets. And the team is crashing the board very well, something that has not always been a trademark of Syracuse teams. I think the top squads like Pitt and UConn will give the Orange a real test because they are so familiar with our zone defense and don’t typically get rattled, but I do like how this team is playing.

15-0 is very tough, as evidenced by the exclusive five member club. Last year’s team, which I think was much better than this year’s team, only went 13-0 before losing their first game. And I thought last year’s team had an excellent chance of winning the National Championship before the Arinze Onuaku injury finally came to hurt them in the Butler game.

So, how have the other four 15-0 teams finished?

The 1999-2000 squad was the last team to start 15-0, and they started off the season 19-0, a school record for most wins to start a season. This wasn’t the best team in Syracuse history, but like this year’s squad, was an outstanding defensive team. Etan Thomas, two time Big East Defensive Player of the Year, anchored the middle of the defense. Add in Jason Hart to harass the opposing guards and Ryan Blackwell to guard the post players, and it was a tough team to score on. The team would end up 26-6, winning the Big East regular season championship, and losing in the Sweet Sixteen.

1986-1987 team unexpectedly started 15-0 behind an unknown point guard named Sherman Douglas. The team had lost Pearl Washington, Rafael Addison, and Wendell Alexis from the year before, so expectations were not high. This team finished 31-7, as the Big East regular season champions. Douglas, along with Rony Seikaly, Derek Coleman, Howard Triche and Greg Monroe would make an impressive run through the NCAA tournament, only to lose to in the National Championship game to the Indiana Hoosiers.

The 1925-1926 team was led by the Three Musketeers: All-American junior Vic Hanson, and his classmates Charlie Lee and Gotch Carr would start out 15-0. They would lose their first (and only game) on February 24th at Penn State 37-31. A few weeks later they would play the Nittany Lions again, easily beating them 29-12 to revenge the victory. The squad was awarded the National Championship by the Helms Foundation for their 19-1 season.

The 1917-1918 team was the first one to start out 15-0, and they went to 16-0 behind All-Americans Joe Schwarzer and Bob Marcus. The team was a dominant defensive presence, and would enter the last game of the season undefeated. In a very physical game, Penn would beat the Orangemen 17-16. Penn would score only 2 points from the floor, the rest from the free throw line, as Penn’s Sweeney went 15-16 from the free throw line. Meanwhile, Syracuse’s Schwarzer, normally an excellent free throw shooter was only 5 of 13. The Orangemen were still awarded the National Championship by the Helms Foundation for their outstanding 16-1 record.

All five of these teams were outstanding defensive teams with strong rebounders and excellent guard play. Let’s see how far the 2010-2011 edition can go.