Missing Grant

A front line of Rakeem Christmas, Jerami Grant and Chris McCullough would be quite impressive and formidable.  The Orange could have had the line up if Grant had not jumped early to the NBA last June.

That would have provided a front line with a lot of length, quickness and vertical space, perfect for Jim Boeheim's zone defense.  Grant was improving offensively last season, and with the improved offensive skills for Christmas plus the arrival of McCullough, there would have been a lot of ability to score up front.  It would get crowded at times, but I think McCullough would have been comfortable drifting a little further away from the hoop.  Plus, with the foul trouble Christmas has had each game, there definitely could never be too much depth up front.

The presence of Grant would not help the perimeter situation; with the exception of Cooney who draws a lot of defensive attention, most of the perimeter players are seeing good three point opportunities frequently.  But I think the addition of Grant on the back line would allow for more steals and force turnovers, and that would improve the fastbreak opportunities.

I had mentioned back in June that I thought it was a mistake for Grant to leave early.  I believe he left a lot of money on the table.  I would imagine that his family is not in dire financial need, as his father is former NBA player Harvey Grant.  Another year of college would have given him more time to improve his draft stock and more playing time per game to work on his skills.

An early season injury hampered Grant's start this year in the NBA.  He is healthy now, and playing for the worst team in the NBA in the Philadelphia 76'ers (and one of the worst in NBA history). He's playing 9-12 minutes a night, which isn't bad... but he could be playing 35+ minutes for Syracuse.  And again, I'll go back to my original statement... it's all about the money.  He was worth more if he stayed.

I wish I could argue that Tyler Ennis should have stayed. Without a doubt he would be helping the Orange out early this season. He would bring in another perimeter shooter, and he would run the offense, and let Kaleb Joseph mature and learn.  Ennis did tend to have a tendency to play it safe too much, and I think he missed opportunities to push the ball, but the results last year were pretty good.

Financially, Ennis made the right move. He is not getting the playing time, but he is getting the practice time.  He definitely would have improved with more playing time at Syracuse, but his draft stock wasn't going to change significantly in my opinion.

2013-2014 Historical Context

The 2013-2014 season started better than any Syracuse fan could ever have hoped, winning a school record 25 games and catapulting the Orange to a #1 ranking.  It also crashed and burned at the end of the season, losing six of the last nine games of the year, including a first round exit in the ACC Tournament and a 2nd round exit in the NCAA.

The team did finish with 28 wins, which is an impressive total.  However, they did exceed that total in four of the previous five seasons. Jim Boeheim has put his program at such a high standard, that 28 wins is now below par.

However, the purpose of this article is really to focus on how the players individual career accomplishments ended.

C.J. Fair, as a fourth year senior, reached the loftiest heights.  He did lead the Orange in rebounding the last three seasons.  The last player to lead the team three years in a row was John Wallace.  Jerami Grant was a better rebounder, but he played in two less games and had fewer minutes.  Only Jon Cincebox, Rudy Hackett, Derrick Coleman and John Wallace have accomplished that before.  Though in Fair's case, I think it was more the lack of competition that gave him the title three years.  Fair also lead the Orange in scoring his last two seasons.

Fair finished as SU's 15th all-time leading scorer with 1,660 points, just behind Eric Devendorf.  He was the 16th best rebounder, putting him near Paul Harris and Arinze Onuaku.  Fair was way down the list in assists, at #72. He finished as the 249th most accurate 3 pt shooter, and 29th on the all-time list in terms of 3 point baskets made.  And to round it out, he was 43rd all time in free throw shooting percentage.

Tyler Ennis finished as 49th all time in assists, five less that Rick Jackson and 2 more than Dave Bing (though in Bing's case they only had assists as a statistic his senior year).  Ennis was 44th all time in 3 point shots made, and 19th all time in 3 point shooting percentage.  Ennis was clutch in free throw shooting all season, and finished at 18th all-time at SU.

Jerami Grant finished his career 64th in rebounding and 99th in assists. He was 60th in 3 pt baskets made, and 86th in career free throw percentage (in the ball park of Conrad McRae, Otis Hill and Rakeem Christmas).

Baye Moussa Keita finished at 43rd in rebounding.and a woeful 97th in free throw shooting percentage (putting him in the range of Rony Seikaly and LeRon Ellis).

2014 NBA Draft for the Orange

Three starting Syracuse basketball players had an opportunity to be drafted in the 2014 NBA draft.  The draft went okay for Tyler Ennis, while both Jerami Grant and C.J. Fair have to be disappointed in the results.

I think Ennis made the right choice financially. His game was stellar for Syracuse at the college level, and I wish we had three more years of him with the Orange.  But I’m not sure his game would have improved significantly enough over the next year or two to make him better than the 18^th overall pick, and if he didn’t continue to develop in those years, this ‘potential’ would have decreased as the reality of who and what he was became more clear.  He could have actually dropped by staying around.  There are some strong points to his game, but he needs to improve his shooting, and he needs to prove he can consistently play up tempo if needed.  In 2013-2014 those were unknowns and thus ‘potentials’ he could build upon; but if he did not improve in those areas next year, that would cause him to drop.

Ennis has the guaranteed money for 2014-2015, at about $1.24 million (Forbes article)  for the next two years, and that could go four years if his NBA team wants him that long.  That’s $1.24 million this year, instead of no income, and $4.96 million over four years.  If he stayed around one more season and went 15^th in the draft in 2015, he would have made about $1.57 million a year, or $6.28 million over four years.  BUT, by going in the draft his year, he would be an unrestricted free agent in 2018-2019 and free to earn what he could get on the market, instead of making the $1.57 million he would have had going in next year’s draft at the hypothetical #15.  Assuming he is successful, he almost certainly would be making more money in 2018-19 in the first year of a free agent contract, than the $1.57 million.

You can use the math of any of the top picks, and I think realistically Ennis would never go higher than #10.  But when you take the impact of getting the $1.23 million this year guaranteed (which is money he would never be able to make up because his career will now be one year longer) and that his free agency will start one year earlier, it’s the smart move.

Jerami Grant , on the other hand, has to be regretting the move.  Assuming he was in good academic standing, he would have had an opportunity to be the central star on the 2014-2015 Syracuse Orange.  He came into the 2014 NBA draft with a ton of potential, but a lot of areas with need for improvement. He could jump explosively and leap quickly, he blocks well, rebounds well, and has a very long reach.  But he needs to dramatically improve his shooting, ball handling and defense.  The real skills he has in 2014 are not uncommon skills in the NBA; they are unteachable, which is what makes him attractive, but it’s not a unique skill set.

Grant ended up the 39^th overall pick.  He is not going to get a guaranteed contract, and he’s going to make less than $800k (possibly around $500k) if he makes the team at all. Philadelphia is a good fit for him because it is in a youth movement, but he left a lot of money on the table. If he does sign with the 76’ers and stays on the team, he will have earn about $2.5 million over his first four years of his NBA contract.   Grant has the athletic ability and potential to have moved into a lottery position in the 2015 draft, and he could have earned that amount of guaranteed money in his first season.    He could've earned $10 million over his first four years in the NBA, instead of $2.5 million, and he would be unlikely to make up that difference in the first year of his free agency.

Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim thought Grant could have made All-America next season, and I agree with that assessment.  

"As far as what he should do, I think, what I think if he came back, he would have had a good chance to make 1st-team All-American based on what he can do and what we would ask him to do next year," Boeheim said. "I think that would have helped his draft stock quite a bit. But players have to decide what they want."  

C.J. Fair made the right decision to stay another year in college. He was not going to be drafted in the 2013 NBA draft. He got another year under his belt to improve his game, and I hope he finished his degree.  The 2013-2014 season did not elevate Fair to a level where he got drafted.  He struggled to score once he became the primary scoring option for the Orange, and his perimeter shooting decreased as he was now a focus of the opposing defense.  Fair struggled at times to be the ‘go to’ man for Syracuse, and really wasn’t able to carry the team on his back many had hoped.  He was a good player last year, but not NBA draft worthy.  

At least Fair is an undrafted free agent and has the opportunity to try to find the right fit himself. 

Fair is a lesson to what could have happened to Ennis if he had stayed.  Fair did improve his senior year, but the ceiling for his potential also dropped as it became clearer what he could and could not do. 

Good luck to all three former Orange on their future professional endeavors, whether it is in the NBA, another league, or another business venture altogether.  

The Orange Beat Duke

The Orange are at 21-0, uncharted waters for the Syracuse basketball squad. They should also move up to #1 in the nation come Monday night, following #1 Arizona’s loss to California on Saturday night. 

The Syracuse / Duke game at the Dome on Saturday night was college basketball at its finest. Two well coached teams playing in front of an extremely hyped NCAA record crowd, in a tight well-played game. The two winningest coaches in men’s Division I history, with teams with collegiate All Americans, McDonald’s All-Americans, and highly touted freshman. Both teams committed only eight turnovers each in the game, and only a combined two in the second half. There was well executed offense and well executed defense. Add in a dash of the game being the first game between Syracuse and Duke in ACC conference play, and throw in a dramatic three point basket to send the game into overtime, and you have a great game. 

Both teams played very well. Here’s some of the numbers for Duke: 15 of 36 from three point range (41%); 18 offensive rebounds; 20 assists and only 8 turnovers; 89 total points; the opponent was held to only 3 three point field goals. If you told Mike Krzyzewski his Blue Devils would post those numbers, I am sure he would have felt his team won the game. And Syracuse Jim Boeheim would have been concerned about those numbers. 

Syracuse, however, had some impressive numbers of its own. The Orange shot 57% from the floor, had only 8 turnovers, a +5 rebound margin, only 8 turnovers, 9 blocked shots, and an impressive 26 – 32 from the free throw line. Those types of numbers will win most games. It was an interesting game. Krzyzewski’s game plan seemed to recognize that the Blue Devils would not be able to beat the Orange on the inside, and he was committed to working the three point offense. Duke ran that offense well, though it was surprising they did not challenge the Orange more inside. Then again, when you successful from the perimeter, and unsuccessful inside, it is alluring to keep going outside. I think Amile Jefferson was outstanding at cleaning up Duke’s perimeter misses, especially in the first half. Duke did struggle inside when it did try to run its offense there. A tip of the hat to the Orange who were smothering inside on their defense. Whenever Duke thought they had an open opportunity, the Orange (primarily Rakeem Christmas) were there to block or alter the shot. 

Defensively, Duke had problems all day with the Orange inside. Jabari Parker and Amile Jefferson both picked up 4 fouls costing them valuable playing time in the second half, and both ultimately fouled out. And when Jefferson or Parker were not on the court, C.J. Fair and Jerami Grant had a field day. Krzyzewski was stuck in a hard place; Jabari Parker likely faced the toughest front court he’s seen, and struggled with it. In three weeks, the rematch should be interesting, as both teams do have areas they can improve upon, and they have adjustments they can make. 

The Orange are playing at a very high level right now. The win against Duke was a combination of all five starters playing well, and the bench contributing enough to let most the starters get some rest. C.J. Fair had a career high 28 points, and proved he was worthy of Naismith consideration. When the Orange needed him to score, he scored. He recognized and took advantage of the defensive mismatches when he saw them. A brilliant game. 

Jerami Grant just continued to keep his stock rising. He had an outstanding day on the boards, with a total of 12 rebounds, and Duke was hard pressed to stop the long limbed explosive leaper. They fouled him several times, and Grant made them pay for every single foul by making 10 out of 10 free throw attempts. I was concerned when he picked up his third foul early in the second half, but he played smart and did not pick up another. 

Rakeem Christmas was a difference maker in the game. He showed up and was aggressive on both ends of the court. Defensively he shut down the Blue Devils with 6 blocked shots and two steals. On the offensive end of the court he made 2 out of 4 shots, and had four offensive rebounds. Baye Keita and Christmas, the two headed monster, had 9 points, 6 blocked shots and 16 rebounds in 45 minutes of play. That type of contribution from our center position will go a long way in winning games. 

Trevor Cooney was shadowed all night and had a tough time getting open for three point attempts. No problem for Cooney as he mixed up his game and drove the lane for layups, and pulled up for mid range jumpers. Twice in the game he had a chance for a three and twice he nailed it. Cooney also is displaying more confidence with his ball handling and provided Ennis relief on the full court presses from Duke. 

Tyler Ennis played like Ennis does every game. Flawlessly running the offense with 9 assists and only 2 turnovers. He threw Duke for a loop when he decided to score himself, rather than work the ball, and I am sure that helped to loosen the defense up on the inside for the rest of the game. 

Michael Gbinije had 12 minutes of solid basketball where he provided some good defense and three assists. Tyler Roberson had five minutes of time in the first half where he presented himself well. He had a nice drive along the baseline which drew the defense to him, and finished off a fast break with an impressive dunk.

You know it was a great game when Jim Boeheim flashed a big smile after Duke's Rasheed Sulaimon drained the 3 point shot as time expired, sending the game into overtime.  It was an epic game and Boeheim realized it. He had coached 1,255 games at Syracuse, and he knew this one was a special one.

Syracuse Beats Nova

Syracuse and Villanova met for the 71st time this afternoon, and the Orange displayed some championship caliber basketball in winning the game 78-62. 

Syracuse looked to be in trouble early as Villanova was hitting all their three point shots and Syracuse was struggling to find an offensive rhythm.  The Wildcats went on a run and led 25-7 with 11:00 minutes to go in the first half.  

Syracuse would turn the game around at that point with some smart offense and hard nose defense, going on a 20-0 run to take the lead 27-25.  It started with Trevor Cooney getting an open look and hitting a 3 point shot, and when Tyler Ennis made a layup with 4:52 to go in the half, Syracuse had the lead. Villanova would tie it up at 27, but when Cooney made another three to put Syracuse up 30-27, the Orange would never relinquish the lead again.

This game showed an great gut check by the Orange.  They never panicked despite falling behind by 18 points to a highly ranked team, instead methodically played their game and worked their way back into the game.  Tyler Ennis had another excellent game at running the offense; he had only two assists, but logged another game with no turnovers.  The young man knows how to protect that ball!

Trevor Cooney came up big when he got going. I was getting frustrated early in the game as it appeared that Cooney was never going to get open, shades of the St. John's game earlier this season.  But Cooney kept his movement going, and the Orange helped with some screens, and Cooney would hit five of eight three point shots he took.

C.J. Fair had another solid game; nothing singularly outstanding, but he kept the offense flowing, kept the defense honest, and made some clutch three point shots to make the Wildcats pay for leaving him on the perimeter.

A big key for this game was the re-emergence of the Baye Keita that we have known that past few seasons. He was hustling around the court, making some crucial rebounds and creating a noticeable defensive presence.  He displayed an outstanding high post pass to Michael Gbinije beneath the basket to help fuel the second half, and another nice perimeter pass to Trevor Cooney for one of Cooney's treys.

DaJuan Coleman appeared to be limited by an injured knee; I hope that does not come back to hinder his season as the Orange do need their three headed center of Coleman-Christmas-Keita.  Jerami Grant had another solid game; he didn't have any highlight real plays like we have become accustomed to, but he did make 11 points.

Overall the Orange hit 29 of 35 free throws, which could have given Villanova a chance if they otherwise had missed.  

I keep waiting for a quality opponent to stifle Tyler Ennis, but it has not happened yet.  The young man is having an amazing season running the offense for the #2 team in the country.