Should Syracuse Fans Expect the Freshmen to Score A Lot in 2022-23?

One of the big questions for 2022-2023 season is where will the Syracuse offensive production come from.  The Orange are losing three of its top four scorers with Buddy Boeheim, Cole Swider, and Jimmy Boeheim leaving.  The team is likely to have to rely on some freshman to do some scoring, assuming no big acquisitions through the transfer portal. Is it realistic to expect freshmen to score?

Since the 2012-2013 season, there have been 31 scholarship freshman on the men's basketball team.  Nine were starters (29%), and eight scored 9+ a game (26%); six scored 10+ a game (19.4%).  Those eight were:

Tyler Ennis 12.9 ppg
Chris McCullough 9.3 ppg
Malachi Richardson 13.4 ppg
Tyler Lydon 10.1 ppg
Tyus Battle 11.3 ppg
Taurean Thompson 9.3 ppg
Oshae Brissett  14.9 ppg
Joe Girard 12.4 ppg

• Of course, really scoring totals are more a function of opportunity and necessity.  Even on really bad teams someone has to score, and if there are capable scorers already in place, freshman are not going to be called upon to play and/or score.  So take those numbers for what they are; just a reflection of what did happen, not what will happen.

While looking this up, probably the most similar situation to 2022-2023 was the 2017-2018 season.  That team lost four of its top five scorers (John Gillon, Tyler Lydon, Andrew White, Taurean Thompson), and the two bench players were weak scorers (Frank Howard and Paschal Chukwu).  Five incoming freshman (Matthew Moyer, Oshae Brissett, Marek Dolezaj, Bourama Sidibe, and Howard Washington).   That team struggled like heck to score, but played terrific grinding defense.  Moyer/Dolezaj and Brissett started, and Brissett turned in one of the best freshman scoring seasons for the Orange, but the team did lack scoring with only three guys who reliably scored: Battle, Howard, and Brissett.  The only new transfer on that team was Geno Thorpe, and he didn't contribute.

2022-2023 is not as barren as 2017-2018 in regards to returning players.  Two starters are returning, not just one (Joe Girard and Jesse Edwards).  There are four returning bench players not just two, and of those Benny Williams does have a very high upside.  There is also no returning player the caliber of Tyus Battle, so temper expectations with that in mind.

Oshae Brissett - By the Numbers - 2019

Oshae Brissett ended his freshman year on a high note, leaving fans with high expectations for 2018-2019.  Unfortunately, Brissett did not improve over the summer, and appeared to regress in many ways, particularly with his three point shooting and free throws.  

Here are the numbers for Brissett's developing career:

Oshae Brissett

976 points scored for #64 all-time at Syracuse.  He is currently right behind teammate Frank Howard (992 points).  If Brissett does return for his junior season, he will most certainly be the 63rd Syracuse player to score 1,000 points in his career.

581 rebounds for 37th all-time.  Preston Shumpert had 589, Lawrence Moten 590.

95 assists for 90th all-time.  He's in the same company as Andre Hawkins (96) and Sonny Spera (90).

85 three point field goals made for 31st all-time.  Teammate Elijah Hughes has 87 for his career , and Malachi Richardson had 79.

56 blocked shots for 39th all-time.  That is similar to Donte Green (57), Kueth Duany (57) and Jerami Grant (55).

76 steals for 67th all-time.  He is tied with Rakeem Christmas, and just behind Tyler Lydon (77).

30.69% three point shooting percentage for 52nd all-time.  The nearest shooters to him are Tony Bland (30.9%), Lazarus Sims (30.65%) and Michael Carter-Williams (30.4%).

73.6% free throw shooting percentage, for 44th all-time. His poor shooting in 2018-19 dropped him significantly, down from 18th from last year. He is about the same as John Wallace and DeShaun Williams.

Brissett has led the Orange in rebounds back-to-back seasons.  The last to do that was C.J. Fair in 2012-13 and 2013-14.  His 7.5 rebounds per game was the lowest for a team leader since Fair's senior year.

Brissett led the team in three point percentage as a freshman with 33.1%; he was the worst on the team in 2018-19 at 27.0%.  That is the second lowest three point percentage in Syracuse history, minimum 100 attempts.  Trevor Cooney's freshman year was lower at 26.7%.

Syracuse Orange Basketball - By The Numbers 2018-19

The Syracuse Orange basketball team ended the season on a sour note losing in the first round of the NCAA tournament.  On the bright side, they did comfortably make it into the tournament, earning an eight seed.

Here's some team level numbers to remember the year by:

Syracuse was 18-11 in games Frank Howard played.  2-3 in games he did not.

Syracuse was 5-1 in games that Marek Dolezaj started.  15-13 in games he did not.   Four of his starts were ACC games.

The Orange were 3-8 versus AP Top 25 teams.  The 11 games against ranked teams ties the school record set in 2005-06 and again 2015-16.

The Orange were 1-5 versus AP Top 5 teams.  The 6 games against top 5 teams ties the school record set in 1995-96, and again in 2017-18 (last year).  

The following is a list comparing 2018-19 statistics to the other 42 seasons in the Jim Boeheim era:

• 808 field goals made were the 2nd fewest in the Boeheim era (2014-15 is lowest with 763)
• 42.40% field goal percentage was the 2nd lowest (2017-18 is lowest at 41.7%)
• 68.5% free throw percent was 23rd lowest (1987-88 is lowest at 60%)
• 274 three point field goals was 3rd most ever (2015-16 is highest with 315)
• 824 three point attempts is 2nd most ever (2015-16 is highest with 876)
• 33.3% three point percent is 23rd highest ever, right in the middle of the pack (1986-87 is highest with 40.3%)
• 408 assists is third lowest (2017-18 is lowest with 395)
• 1176 rebounds is 8th lowest (1984-85 is lowest with 1,064)
• 424 turnovers is 7th lowest (2013-14 is lowest with 306)
• 162 blocked shots is 9th lowest (1994-95 is lowest with 141)
• 2,370 points is 7th lowest (2014-15 is lowest with 2,096)
• 69.7 points per game is 4th lowest (2017-18 is lowest with 66.6)
• 12.0 assists per game is 3rd lowest (2017-18 is lowest with 10.7)
• 34.6 rebounds per game is 2nd lowest (1984-85 is lowest with 34.3)
• +3.7 Point differential per game is 5th lowest (2017-18 is lowest with +2.8)

The last time the Orange has a negative point differential was 1968-69.  That was also the team's last losing season.

Syracuse set the NCAA Single Game home attendance record of 35,642 versus Duke on 2/23/2019.

Tyus Battle's 17.2 ppg was the lowest for the team leader since C.J. Fair had 16.5 ppg in 2013-14.

Oshae Brissett's 7.5 rebounds per game was the lowest for the team leader since C.J. Fair has 6.4 in 2013-14.

Frank Howard's 2.9 assists per game was the lowest for the team leader in school history.  The previous record was 3.1 by Ross Kindel in 1976-77.

Tyus Battle's 76.3% free throw shooting was the lowest for a team leader since Damone Brown's 75.0% in 1998-99.

Syracuse Basketball - Influx of International Players

The Syracuse Orange will have a school record six international players on the basketball team this season.  This will include four scholarship players with sophomore Oshae Brissett (Canada), senior Paschal Chukwu (Nigeria), sophomore Marek Dolezaj (Slovakia), and sophomore Bourama Sidibe (Mali), plus two walk on players with senior Ky Feldman (Israel) and senior Antonio Balandi (Burkina Faso).

Oshae Brissett

This breaks the previous school record of five, which was only last season 2017-2018, with the aforementioned players minus Balandi.

Previous to the recent history, the school record had been three international players, which occurred six times, starting with 1984-1985 (Joel Katz, George Papadokas, Rony Seikaly), 1995-1996 (Marius Janulis, Elvir Ovcina, David Patrick), 2007-2008 (Devin Brennan-McBride, Donte' Greene, Kristof Onganaet), 2010-2011 (Kris Joseph, Baye Moussa Keita, Fab Melo), 2011-2012 (Joseph, Keita, Melo), and 2015-2016 (Chukwu, Feldman and Chino Obokoh).

The game continues to be more international and so it really should be no surprise to the increased influx of players with international backgrounds. 

Back in 2015, I had named my Syracuse all-international team. With the influx of talent the past couple of seasons, I may revise it as follows, moving Brissett onto my first team:

PG Tyler Ennis
SG Kueth Duany
SF Leo Rautins
PF Oshae Brissett
C  Rony Seikaly

Reserves:
G  Marius Janulis
F  Donte' Greene
C  Fab Melo
C  Baye Moussa Keita
F  Kris Joseph

Dolezaj and Chukwu are knocking on the door.  A solid season from Chuckwu would likely supplant him for Keita.  I don't think Dolezaj could move into the list this year, but as he is only a sophomore, I expect big things down the road could make the difference.

Career and Season Records from 2017-2018

Syracuse fielded a young squad in 2017-2018 with juniors Frank Howard and Paschal Chukwu, sophomore Tyus Battle, and freshmen Matthew Moyer and Oshae Brissett the starters.  Fellow freshman Marek Dolezaj, Bourama Sidibe and Howard Washington completed the bulk of the playing time.

A young squad is unlikely to have many players moving up significantly in the all-time career categories, but there were some things to note.

Tyus Battle

Tyus Battle became the 62^nd player to score 1,000 career points; how now has 1,097 points.  He is 55^th all-time. If he scored 700 points again next year he could move up to 13^th and surpass Rony Seikaly.  Frank Howard entered the top 100, and is now 93^rd all-time with 734 points.  Barring injury he should easily get to 1,000 points next season.

Ohae Brissett’s outstanding rebounding effort his freshman year put him well into the top 100 career rebounders at Syracuse. He is tied for 70^th all-time with Andy Rautins with 327 rebounds.  Paschal Chukwu is also in the top 100, with 281 career rebounds, placing him 85^th all-time.

Frank Howard has moved himself up the charts, and is now 18thall-time in assists with 351.  He needs only 88 assists to move all the way up to 8^th all-time.  Battle is also in the top 100, at 71^st on the list with 134 assists.

Battle is 17^th all-time in three point shots made with 137 made shots.  He should move up to around 5^th all-time next year.  Howard is 29^th with 87 shots made, and Brissett is 37^th with 55.  Considering any player who has ever made a three point shot makes the top 100 list, Geno Thorpe comes in 75^th (with 4), Adrian Autry Jr, Marek Dolezaj and Howard Washington are tied at 83^rd (with 2), and Matthew Moyer is tied at 92^nd (with 1).

Paschal Chukwu is 21^st all-time in blocked shots with 105.  Brissett is 56^th with 29, Dolezaj 58^th with 28, Bourama Sidibe 74^th with 20, Howard 76^th with 19, and Battle 81^st with 15.

Frank Howard is 38^th all-time in steals with 123.  Battle is 51^st with 98, Brissett 87^th with 43, Dolezaj 95^th with 30, and Chukwu 96^th with 29.

Battle is currently the 6th best career freethrow shooter with 82.6%.  Brissett is 18^th at 78.7%. 

The Orange also had several notable individual season accomplishments.

Battle’s 712 points and 19.2 ppg were the most since Hakim Warrick scored 726 with 21.4 ppg in 2004-2005. 

Brissett’s 327 rebounds were the most since Rick Jackson had 360 in 2010-2011. Brissett’s 8.8 rpg was topped by Rakem Christmas in 2014-2015 with 9.1

Chukwu’s 91 blocked shots were the most since Darryl Watkins had 112 in 2006-2007.  His 2.5 blocks per game was equaled by Rakem Christmas in 2014-2015.

Brissett’s 174 made free throws were a freshman record, and the most by any Orangeman since Jonny Flynn made 180 in 2008-2009.

Tyus Battle set a school record for minutes played with 1,443;  Howard has the 2^nd most all-time with 1,422 and Brissett is 4^th all-time with 1,411.  Jonny held the previous record with 1,418 in 2008-2009.

On the downside, Oshae Brissett led the Orange with a 33.1% three point shooting percentage. That was the lowest percentage ever for a team leader, breaking the mark set by Lawrence Moten back in 1992-1993 with 33.6%.  Brisstt's effort was the 60th best 3 point shooting season for Syracuse out of 74 players who qualified.  Howard was 63rd and Battle 64th.  

Tyus Battle is only the third Syracuse player to be named All-ACC First Team. The other two were Rakeem Christmas in 2015 and C.J. Fair in 2014.

A few oddities too about the 2017-2018 Orangemen. They were widely reported throughout the season to have the tallest team in the NCAA. The starting five:  Howard 6’4”, Battle 6’5”, Moyer 6’8”, Brissett 6’8”, and Chukwu 7’2”.  Reserves Dolezaj 6’9” and Sidibe 6’10” definitely helped that average.  The shortest regular player on the squad was Washington at 6’3”.

Coach Jim Boeheim won his 1,027 game as a head coach for Syracuse, and was involved in 1,218 wins for Syracuse basketball as a player, assistant coach and head coach.  He won his 50th ACC game.  He coached in his 33rd NCAA tournament.

Oshae Brissett's Freshman Year

Oshae Brissett had quite an impact on the Orange his freshman season.  He was the 2017 All-Canadian High School Player of the Year, but even with that distinction, he was not that heralded, nationally, when he came to Syracuse.

Super frosh Oshae Brissett

He showed early on that he had a nose for the ball pulling 10+ rebounds in five of the first eight games.  He would have season high 25 point games in a win over Buffalo and a loss to North Carolina State. In the NCAA tournament he would lead the Orange with 23 point and 10 rebounds in the First Four victory over Arizona State.

Brissett would lead the Orange in rebounds, 3 pt %, and led the ACC conference in free throw attempts. He was second on the team in scoring with 14.9 points per game.

I think some of his accomplishments went unnoticed, at least from a historical context. The Orange players had to be ironmen in 2017-2018 due to a reduced roster. Brissett would play 1,411 minutes, for a 38.1 minutes per game average.  Both are by far records for a Syracuse freshman.  The previous records were 1,274 minutes with a 36.4 mpg average, both set by Carmelo Anthony back in 2002-2003.

Brissett made 174 free throws, the most ever by a Syracuse freshman, again eclipsing the mark of 167 set by Anthony.  His 221 free throw attempts were second only to Anthony’s 238. 

Carmelo /Anthony

Brissett’s 327 rebounds were third most ever by a Syracuse freshman, trailing Anthony’s 349 and Derrick Coleman’s 333.  His 8.8 rpg average was tied for second best, again trailing Anthony, and tying Coleman.

Brissett scored the fourth most points ever by a Syracuse freshman with 553. He trailed Anthony’s  His 14.9 points per game is fifth all-time, trailing Anthony 22.2, Moten 18.2, Greene 17.7 and Jonny Flynn 15.7.    He scored more points per game as a freshman than stellar freshman Pearl Washington (14.4), Gerry McNamara (13.3), Billy Owens (13.0), Derrick Coleman (11.9), and Tyler Ennis (12.9).

778, Donte Greene with 620, and Lawrence Moten with 583.

His 37 games played trailed only Derrick Coleman and Billy Owens' 38 games.

Brissett was not the best freshman ever at Syracuse.  Carmelo Anthony rightfully earns that designation. Some of the other aforementioned freshman also had better seasons than Brissett. But it is notable that Brissett did have an excellent freshman year, and he can be mentioned with some of the greatest freshman to play for the Orange.

The Orange Offense 2017-18

The Orange basketball team has some unusual statistical oddities occurring this season. This is being driven by the reliance on three guys to do virtually all of the scoring: Tyus Battle, Oshae Brissett, and Frank Howard.

Hopefully Matthew Moyer continues to exploit the defensive coverage being given to him and he  keeps improving his value as a fourth scorer. A tip of the hat to Howard who recognizes that Moyer is getting weak coverage and giving him the ball in those situations.

The Orange have a three headed offensive attack right now with three guys averaged 15.4 ppg or more.  The 1993-94 team was the last team with three guys with 15+ ppg:  Lawrence Mote 21.5, Adrian Autry 16.7, and John Wallace 15.0.  The 2012-13 team, which made the Final Four had a leading scorer C.J. Fair with just 14.5 ppg, lower than all three scorers this year.  The 2011-12 team's leading scorer had 13.4 ppg (Kris Joseph), and 2010-11 had 14.3 ppg (again Joseph).

The downside is that the fourth leading scorer on this year's squad barely averaged 5.3 ppg (Pascal Chukwu).  I have to go back to 2004-05 to find a team where the fourth leading scorer was even remotely close to that low, and that was Terrence Roberts with 7.2 ppg.  Fourth leading scorer on the 2001-02 team was Hakim Warrick with 6.1 ppg.  Fourth leading scored on the 1989-90 team was Dave Johnson with 6.5 ppg.  You would have to go all the way back to 1948-1949 to find a Syracuse team where the fourth leading scorer averaged 5.4 ppg or less.

I'd expect Moyer and Marek Dolezaj's numbers to improve as the year moves on, and for them to end up in the 6-7 ppg range; I'd also expect our top three scorers numbers to start to dip as the others on the team start to score more.

But it is interesting from an historical perspective how unusual our point spread is right now.

Early Evaluation for 2017-2018

The Orange have played six games, and are sitting at 6-0.  It is still early in the season, but we do have a bod of work we can evaluate.

So what do I think of the Orange so far?

I think we will be a competitive team this year, which is all I really can ask for. We may get to our 20+ wins, and to the NCAA tournament, which would be a welcome return.

This team is unlikely to ever be proficient at making 3’s. There aren’t any pure shooters on the squad. But it is a team with a lot of athleticism, a lot of hustle, and a strong ability to drive to the hoop.

You can win a lot of games playing solid defense, crashing the boards and diving for loose balls. Jamie Dixon made a career at Pitt by coaching teams to do just that. Dixon never had an offense you would care for.

The exciting thing is that a few of our weaknesses and concerns from the summer currently are not being displayed. Our point guard play from Frank Howard has been solid through seven games; so much so, that Howard Washington has barely played, and Geno Thorpe hasn’t even backed up the point position.

We thought we had a black hole at center, and instead we have not one, but two centers playing the position well.  

We thought we wouldn’t have a solid #2 scorer, but Howard is providing that element right now. Oshae Brissett is showing that he will be #3. People thought that we would need Thorpe to be #2, and he has been a non factor.

We thought Marek Dolezaj would be a project for future years, and possibly even redshirt. Instead the kid is a key/vital element on the team.

We thought we would be playing a lot of three guard offense; that has barely been displayed.

Bottom line… there’s a lot we didn’t know about this team. It’s young, its inexperienced. We are looking at a small sample size. Yet, they keep checking the boxes off as the proceed game to game.

Go Orange!