Shooting Woes

The Orange seemed stunk in a season long slump with their three point shooting, with a 20.9% accuracy for the season. The Syracuse team has not been shy about shooting beyond the arc, having taken 129 shots over the first 8 games, an average of 16 a game.  Unfortunately, they are making about 3.3 a game.

Trevor Cooney has been the lightning rod for the most criticism.  In part that is fair, as he is a junior, one of the most seasoned players on the team, and came to Syracuse with a reputation of being a perimeter shooter.  His bombing of Notre Dame last season showed he could do it when he lit up the Fighting Irish for 9 three point baskets on 12 attempts on his way to a 33 point night.  Cooney has hit only 13 of 46 attempts this season, for a success rate of 28.3%.

Cooney is, however, the best three point shooter on the team.  I am not just talking from a observation perspective.  Statistically, his 28.3% is the best on the team... and by a large margin. Here is the rest of the crew:

B.J. Johnson:   5 of 23 for 21.7%

Kaleb Joseph:   3 of 14 for 21.4%

Michael Gbinje:   3 of 21 for 14.3%

Ron Patterson:   2 of 18 for 11.1%

As a group, that foursome is 13 of 76 for 17.1%.  

All hope should not be lost.  It is highly unlikely that the Orange as a team are that bad at shooting the three, and things should come around.

Here are a list of the five worst three point shooters in Syracuse basketball history, minimum 30 attempts:

Paul Harris:  22 of 98 for 22.4%

Damone Brown:  20 of 89 for 22.5%

Elvir Ovcina:  37 of 153 for 24.2%

Louis McCroskey:   36 of 141 for 25.5%

Josh Wright:  34 of 120 for 28.3%

To give some perspective of how bad those five were as three point shooters, consider that Stephen Thompson, one of the all time great Orangemen, but a horrendous three point shooter, is only 9th worst at 30.3% (26 of 86).  So the five worst shooters are pretty bad.  

Right now, ALL five Syracuse perimeter shooters would be worse than #5 Josh Wright, and four would be worst than Paul 'I couldn't hit the broadside of a barn' Harris.  So unless Jim Boeheim coincidentally recruited the five worst shooters in Syracuse history at the same time, it is highly unlikely the shooting performance is indicative of their actual ability.

Trevor Cooney is an enigma. He is a 34% career shooter, and has been a disappointment for all three seasons, with high expectations based on Boeheim's comments about his ability.  Opposing defenses are keying on him, but even when he gets open, his shot is not falling. 

We would expect the Orange shooting to start to regress to the mean at some point. They aren't likely to ever be a great perimeter shooting team, but they should be in the 30-33% range, at a minimum. Just keep taking the shots.

Or, perhaps give walk-on Carter Sanderson more playing time (playfully said).  Sanderson is a graduate student at Syracuse, and is on the team because he still had a year of eligibility left after completing his undergraduate work at Lipscomb University.  Sanderson made 32.4% of his three point shots at Lipscomb, 55 of 170.  

Anyhow, there will be a brighter future in the team's shooting. I just hope it is sooner than later.

Goodbye to a Big Threesome

Syracuse finished the season strong, and with the entire starting squad slated to return along with most of the bench and some talented incoming freshman, Syracuse was looking very good for the 2009-2010 season. Some experts had Syracuse projected as a top 5 team for next season. That quickly changed as the weeks following the season rolled by as the three top scoring players and starters Jonny Flynn, Eric Devendorf and Paul Harris all declared themselves eligible for the NBA draft. Syracuse went from a league favorite to a possible rebuilding season.

I don’t harbor any of the three players ill will and wish them the best of luck in the professional endeavors. Flynn’s value was probably never going to be higher than it was at the end of this season, and he has some favorable projections for his NBA draft position.

Devendorf would have been a fifth year senior, and considering his penchant for getting into trouble off the court, I can see him wanting to get out while the going is good. I understand that Harris has a family already, and the lure of a professional contract, even non-NBA, is better than no paycheck as a college student.

I have heard a portion of fans saying that Syracuse is going to be better off next year without these guys, and that is nonsense. There’s a reason that Flynn played more minutes this season than any player in Syracuse basketball history; there was not a worthy point guard replacement on the team. Yes, next year Scoop Jardine will be around and Brandon Triche arrives on campus, but neither are proven players. Furthermore Flynn was the best point guard since the Pearl / Douglas era.

Devo had his problems on the court (too many turnovers, no defense, no rebounding) but he was a clutch shooter, an emotional plus on the court, and had the ability to generate his own offense. That’s a tough commodity to replace.

Harris was the team’s leading rebounder, despite the fact that he was maddingly inconsistent in his effort. There is no doubt that Syracuse played better basketball when Harris played well. He was always a turnover away from making me shake my head, or a blown defensive assignment away from being pulled off the court by coach Jim Boeheim. But he was nevertheless a strong presence on the court.

I would love to have any of these guys back. That’s 43.1 points per game the Orange are losing, along with nine seasons of experience (never to be overrated), and the three best free throw shooters.

Now all is not doom and gloom. There is a lot of talent returning in veterans Andy Rautins, Rick Jackson, Arinze Onuaku, along with the return of Scoop Jardine, Kris Joseph, and Mookie Jones, and the arrival of Wesley Johnson, James Sutherland, and Brandon Triche. And of course, Jim Boeheim always seems to do well with the unproven teams.

Just for exercise (and for those who are curious), I checked on some notable teams that lost some significant players: the 1973-1974 squad, 1985-1986, 1994-1995 and 2001-2002. For those of you who are astute enough, you’ve already realized those were the squads the seasons before Syracuse when to each of it’s Final Fours.

The 1973-74 squad was led by senior point guard sensation Dennis DuVal with his 20.6 points a game, and 3.4 assists per game. Senior Fred Saunders would score 9.8 ppg along with 9.8 rebounds per game, and senior center Bob Dooms would add 4.7 ppg and 5.0 rpg. The Orangemen would also lose some important role players with Scott Stapleton and Tom Stundis.

Now the cupboards were not bare for the Orangemen that year. The teams best shooter Jimmy Lee was returning, and the team’s best player Rudy Hackett would also be back. Sophomore Jimmy Williams would emerge as a solid point guard and Chris Sease would play admirably in the other forward position. And it was not like the 1974-1975 team was dominant; it wasn’t. It was a good team, that got very hot during the NCAA tournament, made the clutch shots, and miraculously found itself in the Final Four.

The 2001-2002 team had a ton of talent, but imploded after being ranking #7 in the nation, and failed to make the NCAA tournament. Preston Shumpert was incredibly talented, but problems between him and the talented but troubled DeShaun Williams would tear the team apart. The Orangemen would lose it’s top two scorers and 36.6 ppg, along with staring point guard James Thues (he transferred). So coming off an NIT season, and losing three starters is not a good sign.

But of course, 2002-2003 was no ordinary season. The arrival of three very talented freshman (Carmelo Anthony, Gerry McNamara, and Billy Edelin) and the growth of Hakim Warrick made the team one of the most formidable squads the Orangemen ever had. And of course, a National Championship occurred.

The 1994-1995 squad was one with some high expectations, that lost in overtime in the NCAA tournament. The Syracuse backcourt had the talented Michael Lloyd (12.5 ppg, 5.2 apg), along with the effortless Lawrence ‘Poetry in ‘ Moten (19.6 ppg, 3.3 apg, 4.2 rpg). Senior Luke Jackson played small forward and brought another 11.2 ppg and 4.2 rpg. That’s a total of 43.1 ppg lost.

Syracuse did have John Wallace foregoing the NBA draft and coming back for his senior year, and Big John would carry the Orangemen to the title game with 22.2 ppg, 8.7 rpg, and 42% three point range shooting. The emergence of Todd Burgan was not unexpected, he had shown flashes of his talent his freshman year as one of the top reserves, and junior college transfer Jason Cipolla teamed with sophomore Marius Janulis to provide some excellent perimeter shooting. The real key was the emergence of fifth year senior Lazarus Sims as the dominant point guard. Sims did not score a lot (only 6.3 ppg), but he was a great ballhandler and play maker, with 7.4 apg.

But the most comparable situation for the current Syracuse squad was the 1985-1986 squad. The Orangemen were led by Pearl Washington with 17.3 ppg, 7.8 apg, and 2.5 rpg. The Pearl was dynamic on the court, and had the special quality of being able to create plays for his teammates, and also able to generate his own offense. If you compare Flynn and the Pearl, statistically they’ll be very similar, with Pearl better assist totals. Clearly too great college point guards; Pearl was better, but that is no knock on Flynn.

The Orangemen had Rafael Addison at shooting guard. As much as the loss of Devo may hurt the Orange, the loss of Raf was a bigger one for the Orangemen. Addison scored as many points as Devo, but without a three point shot. Raf was deadly from the 16-18 foot jump shot, and I’m sure he would’ve made his share of threes. Both Raf and Devo shot about 79% from the free throw line, but Raf played defense and rebounded, and was actually better at handling the ball. Devo was better at making his own plays on offense, but if you have a great point guard on the court (which both did), you don’t have to make your own plays too often. Raf’s scoring was down his senior year due to a leg injury at mid season, so both guys struggled with a bum leg of some sort. At 6’7” Raf had a few inches over Devo at 6’3”.

The third Orangemen to leave the 1985-86 squad was Wendell Alexis. Alexis was quiet on the court, but he pulled down 7.4 rpg, and scored 15.2 ppg, second on the squad. He was a terrific free throw shooter at 81% and was pretty good at running the court. Harris was a better rebounder, but Alexis was a better all around player, and was rarely a liability on the court.

So you pull three starters off the 1985-86 team, including your top three scorers, so it’s tough to predict what will happen the next season. Well, what happened was an unknown sophomore Sherman Douglas emerged as an outstanding point guard, fourth year senior Greg Monroe stepped into the starting lineup and provided excellent perimeter shooting, ball handling and leadership, and a skinny freshman Derrick Coleman showed that he could pull down a rebound or two (or more). Center Rony Seikaly, who had always been inconsistent (remind you of a current center?) developed some consistency and in the post season he stepped his game up several notches to be a dominating inside player. The Orangemen would come within a Keith Smart shot of winning the national title (Hakim Warrick was only 4 at the time and unable to block the shot).

So, who knows what to expect for 2009-2010? I have no idea. It is disappointing to lose the three big scorers from this season (along with Kris Onganaet and his hustle), but the Orange do have some talent returning, and a lot of experience, and a coach who has seen a game or two. It should be a fun year.

Career & Season Milestones 2008-2009

Syracuse had a veteran team in 2008-2009, and a successful season, and the combination of those two factors do help players gain certain statistical achievements.

Points Scored for Career

Eric Devendorf: 1680 Career Points, 14th all time. He has a chance at Lawrence Moten’s school record of 2334 points. He would need 655 points, or about an average of 18.7 points a game his senior year.

Paul Harris: 1253 points, 34th all time, right behind Tony Bruin with 1294 points

Jonny Flynn: 1211 points, 38th all time, 1 point behind Wendell Alexis. Flynn is 52% of the way to Moten’s record, so if he kept at his current pace and stayed at Syracuse for four seasons, he would break Moten’s record.

Arinze Onuaku: 896 points, needs 104 to get to 1000 points. He is 60th all time in Syracuse scoring; Rick Dean is ahead of him with 912 points.

Andy Rautins: 697 points, 82nd all time. He is 5 points behind Mel Besdin. Andy would need 334 points to tie his dad Leo, with 1,031 career points. Andy should reach that mark; he scored 387 points this season.

Career Rebounds

Paul Harris: 832 career rebounds, 14th all time. He needs fifteen to catch Etan Thomas. Harris has no chance of break Derrick Coleman’s record, but an excellent opportunity to finish 2nd on the Syracuse career list, needing 263 rebounds to surpass Rony Seikaly (Harris had season rebound totals of 248, 286, and 298 in his first three years).

Arinze Onuaku: 640 rebounds, 24th all time. He is 8 behind Marty Byrnes.

Rick Jackson: 324 rebounds, 58th all time. He is 9 behind Gerry McNamara.

Kris Onganaet: 309 rebounds, 63rd all time.

Eric Devendorf: 277 rebounds, 67th all time. He is 9 behind Ron Payton.

Andy Rautins: 209 rebounds, 86th all time. He is 3 behind Ernie Austin, and 320 behind his father, so Leo will be able to keep that honor away from his son.

Jonny Flynn: 198 rebounds, 88th all time. He is 6 behind Ross Kindel.

Career Assists

Jonny Flynn: 439 assists, 7th all time. He is 100 behind Eddie Moss for 6th place. Flynn is currently not on pace to break Sherman Douglas’ school record of 960, but it is something in his reach if he increases his assist production to about 8.6 assists per game (which would tie a school record).

Eric Devendorf: 374 assists, 14th all time. He is 7 behind Billy Owens.

Paul Harris: 254 assists, 31st all time. He is one behind John Wallace.

Andy Rautins: 176 assists, 49th all time. He is one behind Marty Byrnes, and 247 behind his father Leo, so once again dad looks to be able to hold onto that position.

Kris Onganaet: 75 assists, 81st all time.

Rick Jackson: 55 assists, 96th all time. He is one behind Fred Saunders for 95th.

Arinze Onuaku: 53 assists, 99th all time. He is one behind Rich Cornwall.

Three Point Field Goals

Eric Devendorf: 208 three point field goals, 3rd all time. He should catch Preston Shumpert for 2nd needing only 42 to pass him. However, Gerry McNamara seems safe at #1 with 400.

Andy Rautins: 184 three point field goals, 7th all time. He needs 6 to catch Marius Janulis, and should also pass Preston Shumpert needing 66 to accomplish that. Rautins trails Devendorf by 24 three point field goals; he had 20 more than Devo in 2008-2009, so it will be close to see who finishes second all time at Syracuse.

Jonny Flynn: 101 three point field goals, 15th all time. He needs 4 to tie Jason Cipolla.

Paul Harris: 22 three point field goals, 39th all time. He needs one to catch Michael Lloyd.

Mookie Jones and Kris Joseph both have 7 three point field goals, 46th all time. They are one behind Ramel Lloyd.

Kris Onganaet: 5 three point field goals, 51st all time.
Jake Presutti: 3 three point field goals, 56th all time.

Other Career Notes

Eric Devendorf is 7th in career turnovers with 331. Jason Hart holds the record with 436 which is within Devo’s grasp. Let us hope he doesn’t get it.

Arinze Onuaku is 14th all time in blocked shots with 113, and Rick Jackson is 15th with 104.

Eric Devendorf is 5th all time in 3 point shooting accuracy (minimum 100 attempts) at 37.8%. Andy Rautins is 10th at 35.9%. The worst ever was Elvir Ovcina at 24.2%. Paul Harris needs to attempt two more 3 point field goals to qualify; when he does that he’ll be the worst ever at 22.5% (and Harris would hold that record even if he made those two attempts).

Eric Devendorf is 14th all time in free throws made with 306.

Single Season Rankings

Harris’ 298 rebounds was the 18th best rebounding total for a season.

Johnny Flynn’s 180 free throws made was the 5th best single season ever for Syracuse. His 237 attempts was 10th best.

Arinze Onuaku set the school record for field goal percentage in a season with 178 of 268 made, or 66.7%, breaking the mark held by Roosevelt Bouie of 65.4% set in 1979-1980. Rick Jackson had the 6th best shooting season ever, with 139 of 223, or 62.3%.

Jonny Flynn set the school record for most minutes in a season with 1418 minutes, break John Wallace’s 1995-1996 record of 1379.

Flynn had the 4th best minutes/game mark with 37.3 minutes/game. Billy Owens owns the school record with 38.0 minutes/game, set in 1990-1991.

Flynn has the 5th best assist totals for a season with 254. Sherman Douglas holds the school record with 326 (Douglas is also #2 & #3 on the list). Flynn’s total was the 2nd most ever for a sophomore.

Flynn tied the school record for most games started in a season with 38, which has now been accomplished by 12 players.

Andy Rautins 102 three point field goals was 4th best ever for Syracuse. Gerry McNamara holds the record with 107.

Flynn had the 4th worst turnover total in school history with 129. Sherman Douglas holds the record with 139 in 1988-1989.

Flynn’s 663 points was the 11th best point total for a season, and the most points ever for a sophomore season.

Flynn’s 6.7 assists per game was the 6th best average for a season. Sherman Douglas holds the record with 8.6 per game.

There are 43 Syracuse players who have had more than 100 assists in a season where they also recorded turnovers. Jonny Flynn’s assist/turnover ratio of 1.97 is 10th best ever. Sherman Douglas holds the school record with a ratio of 2.85. Eric Devendorf has the 3rd worst season ever with a ratio of 1.01. Andy Rautins was 26th best, with a ratio of 1.53.

And then the really bad record: Arinze Onuaku obliterated the Syracuse season record for worst free throw shooter (100 minimum attempts) at 29.8% (37 of 124). The previous record was Terrence Roberts at 42.1%. Onuaku was so bad that if we lowered the standard to 50 attempts he still would hold the record (the previous record was 38.3% at that standard). Using the 100 minimum standard, Onuaku would still have broken the record if he had made an additional 15 free throws.

Onuaku has pulled ahead of Terrence Roberts for the worst career free throw shooter (minimum 200 attempts). Onuaku is at 38.7% (122 of 315), while Roberts was at a ‘lofty’ 42.1%. If Onuaku were to make the next 100 free throws he attempted, his career percent was only be 53%.

On the bright side, the greatest field goal percentage for a career for Syracuse (minimum 200 attempts) is 68.5% by Jeremy McNeil. Onuaku has a career percentage of 64.1%, which is second best ever.

Team Notes

Syracuse as a team had the 5th most wins ever in school history, with 28. In part this was because of tying a school record 38 games played (which was also accomplished in 1986-1987, 1988-1989, and 1995-96). That is what happens when you win preseason tournament, go four deep into the Big East Tournament, and play 3 NCAA Tournament games.

Syracuse finished the regular season ranked 13th in the AP polls. That is the 12th best finish for the Orangemen ever, and their best poll finish since 2004-2005 where they finished 11th.

Coach Jim Boeheim finished the year with 799 wins. His first win of 2009-2010 will give him #800.

Inspired!

Wow! What a game. If you could not stay up to 1:40 am EDT last evening, you missed one of the greatest games in basketball history. Six overtimes.

The final score was 127-117 Syracuse over Connecticut. But the Orange never led in any of the previous five overtime periods. Syracuse showed early in the season in the Florida and Kansas games that they would not fold under pressure, and they have kept that true to form this entire season. What a welcome change from the past few years.

I have been harsh on Jonny Flynn's playmaking this season, and I believe rightfully so. But in the last few games, I have seen Flynn develop from being a great player to being a great point guard. He is now dishing the ball off to his teammates, allowing them to take the better shots, and keeping everyone involved. He is elevating his play, and that is bringing the team with him.

So many highlights from last night. Arinze Onuaku... you know all Orange fans were burying their faces in their hands when he went to the line with 30 seconds to go in regulation and he had to make two. And the big guy came through with two free throws.

Devendorf's last second shot for the win... nothing but net. I think the officials made the correct call in taking away the basket due to time expiring... but it could not have possibly been any closer. I do have an objection with the officials not calling charging on Thabeet for plowing over Jonny Flynn on the pick on the inbounds (though I can understand them not wanting to make that call at the end of the game).

Andy Rautins hitting a clutch 3 to tie the game with 12 seconds to go in the 3rd overtime period. It must be something in the Rautin gene pool that allows heroics in third period overtimes (reference: Leo's tip in winning basket in the 1981 Villanova triple overtime win). And Andy's three point shot to start the 6th overtime period basically ended the game.

Flynn's 34 points and 11 assists are strong numbers, but 67 minutes and 16-16 from the free throw line are the numbers that really jump out.

Paul Harris... what an up and down night for Paul. 56 minutes, 29 points, 13-14 from the free throw line. Here's the huge stat: 22 rebounds. Some of those 22 rebounds were his own missed shots (of which he had many at point blank in overtime), but still a great effort from Harris.

For a few minutes of overtime, Syracuse had to play against UConn and Thabeet without any center or power forward on the team. Onuaku, Onganaet and Jackson had all fouled out. I was concerned that was the end for the Orange, but they still hung in there.

You've got to wonder what was going through Justin Thomas's mind when Devendorf fouled out and Thomas, a walk-on, had to go onto the court. He played 18 minutes all season, plus three more against Seton Hall Wednesday night. He ended up playing 7 minutes, every one of them crucial, against the #4 team in the country, last night. I'm guessing Jake Presutti was praying that neither Rautins or Harris would pick up their next foul, their fifth, or he would have been on the court too.

Who knows what the Orange will be able to do tonight. They are young men, but the emotional drain has got to be significant. The big men actually should not be too physically tired. Jackson played only 29 minutes, Onganaet 28 minutes, and Onuaku 28 minutes. But the guards will definitely be the ones to watch.

I think the win last night easily moves the Orange into a #4 seed in the NCAA tournament, regardless of how they do this evening. We'll see.

GO ORANGE!

Thoughts on Wrapping up the Regular Season

I am very happy with how the Orange finished out their regular season. They held tough with a good Villanova team, and then they won the final four games of the regular season to finish 23-8. The last four games were really promising. They beat St. Johns, Rutgers and Cincinnati, which in itself would not impress anyone. However, it is the way they beat those teams that was so rewarding.

The Orange played solid defense in those three games, and they ended up playing hard until the end of each of the games, putting all the games in the blow out category. That is what good teams are supposed to do; bury the teams weaker than them, instead of letting them hang around.

The win against Marquette, a top twenty team, on the road, to end the season was an especially nice touch. It is very nice being in that comfortable position knowing that the Orange are virtually guaranteed an NCAA berth, and now they are just playing for the seeding position. A welcome change from the past two seasons.
Syracuse had only one ‘bad’ loss all year and that was to Cleveland State. That game is not going to hurt them as it is probably considered more of a fluke with the half court shot beating them. The Georgetown loss does not look good now, but they were a top 10 team at the time. Syracuse beat every other team they should beat this season. I had written in the preseason if they went 22-9 with their schedule I would find that very impressive, and then ended 23-8. So no complaints here.

Jonny Flynn made the Big East Second Team, and I have no problem with that position. The Big East got smart and went back to a reasonable First Team, Second Team and Third Team selection, instead of the incredibly bloated ten man teams the past three years. Flynn is the best basketball player at Syracuse, and definitely one of the best guards in the league. He is not a great point guard, as I have written a few times this season, but he is absolutely a great player.

The happiest moment for me in the Marquette game was the three point shot by Rautins to seal the win in overtime. Why? That play showed me a maturing process for Jonny Flynn as a point guard. Flynn drove the lane and drew the defenders. 99% of the time this season, Flynn was going to force that shot. Instead he did the correct move and he dished the ball out to Rautins who was wide open because his defender had slipped down to cover Flynn. If Flynn is going to start playing like a point guard and making those smart decisions, then the Orange become a far tougher team to beat.

As good as Flynn and Eric Devendorf are, the fate of Syracuse falls into the hands of Andy Rautins and Paul Harris. Rautins is probably the most ‘valuable’ player on the team this season. He shot 40% from three point range in the games Syracuse won and 30% in the eight they lost. When Syracuse gets Rautins involved in the offense, it opens up the rest of the court, making it easier for Flynn, Devendorf, and Harris all to get to the basket. And Rautins has shown he is very adept at passing that ball to the cutting player or to the open player down in the post. As offense flows through Rautins, the team plays more ‘team ball’, and less one-on-one.

Harris’ rebounding is the other crucial factor for the Orange. When Harris shows up to play and works to get his rebounds, the Orange are a tough team to beat. They are 9-2 when Harris had double digit rebounds, 14-6 when he does not. Rebounding is mostly a motivational issue, and I do not know why Harris has a tough time staying motivated for rebounding on a regular basis. But I do know that when he does, the opposition gets limited shot opportunities and the Orange play well.

Syracuse’s free throw shooting as a team is actually very comforting. Throw out Arinze Onuaku’s numbers, and Syracuse shoots 70% as a team. Flynn shoots 79% from the charity strip, Devendorf 81% and Harris 73%. Rautins is only 68%, but he has had limited free throw opportunities this season.

Onuaku is of course a well documented poor free throw shooter. He shot 30% from the line for the regular season, and an astonishing 17% (10-60) in Big East play.
Rautins is on the flip side for conference play. Rautins hit 100% of his free throws in Big East play. But despite playing 469 minutes in conference play, Rautins only took five free throw attempts during that time. That’s one free throw every 93.8 minutes of play. That is probably reflective on the fact that he took only 28 shots inside the three point arc in conference play, and the Big East lets the players play tough inside. But still, an amazing number to me.

I do not know how far the Orange can go this post season. I think winning the Big East Tournament would be far tougher than making the Final Four. To win the Big East Tournament, Syracuse would likely have to beat along the way Louisville, Connecticut and Pittsburgh. There are very few teams that good in the country, and Syracuse would be very unlikely to face three teams of that caliber in the NCAA tournament.

I don’t think the Orange have what it takes to win the NCAA tournament. Their inside game is not strong enough to face some of the other top teams. However, the Orange have shown a strong ability to win the close games, and they did beat Kansas and Memphis in hostile environments. I know if I were another team, I would not want to draw Syracuse as an opponent in the tournament. Syracuse is a very experienced team with their top 7 players consisting of one senior, 3 fourth year juniors, another junior, and two sophomores. In today’s college basketball, that is a lot of experience.

Where The Orange Stand

The overtime win against Georgetown yesterday was another classic Syracuse/Georgetown game, going down to the wire with a lot of dramatic action and heroic efforts. The win was crucial for the Orange stopping a slide that saw Syracuse losing six of their last seven games. While the win against the tumbling Hoyas is not as impressive as it would have been a month ago, it is still a big win.

Syracuse is now 19-7 for the season, 7-6 within the Big East conference with five games to go. The strong out of conference schedule and the success against that schedule is looming as extremely important for the Orange right now. But the NCAA selection committee looks at how you do in your last ten games, and that, with other factors, is going to become very important right now.

Syracuse is above .500 in the Big East, but they are 0-5 against the six teams ahead of them in the standings, and 7-1 against the nine teams below them. That pretty much says the Orange are situated in the conference rankings right where they belong. Being the 7th team from a conference is not an ideal situation to be in, though with the depth of the Big East, it is a good position right now. However, the last five games are going to be very important.

Syracuse is currently 2-5 in road games. Their last five games are against Villanova, @ St. Johns, Cincinnati, Rutgers, and @ Marquette. Two of those teams are ahead of Syracuse in the standings: Villanova and Marquette. Syracuse cannot afford to lose to any of the three teams below them: St. Johns, Cincinnati and Rutgers. If they won those three and lost to Villanova and Marquette, they would be 22-9 going into the Big East tournament, 10-8 in the conference, 5-5 in their last 10 games, and 3-6 on the road. I’d be afraid of those last two numbers, and I think it would require them to win at least a couple of games in the Big East tournament to show they are NCAA tourney worthy, enough to get them off that bubble. In this scenario, one and done, or one win and then out in the Big East tournament, could leave the Orange on the bubble… and I know from past history I do not want to be there.

However, a win at Marquette on March 7th would be huge, as it would be a quality road win against a top 20 team to close out the regular season, it would make them 4-5 on the road, and 6-4 in their last 10. That would put them in the NCAA tourney regardless of how they perform in the Big East tournament. Likewise a win against Villanova, instead of Marquette, would also be important and improve the resume greatly.

Winning the last five would be great for Syracuse, and it is well within their reach. That would take them to 24-7 going into the Big East tournament, 12-6 in the conference,7-3 in their last ten games, and 4-5 on the road. They are going to have to play some defense, get some offensive cohesion, and improve their teamwork.

The Georgetown game saw Johnny Flynn join the 1,000 point club for Syracuse, becoming the 51st player to reach that level. Paul Harris reached that mark earlier this year, now at 1,123 points, 43rd all time. Eric Devendorf is ten points from becoming the 20th player to reach 1,500 career points. The game also saw Arinze Onuaku pass Carmelo Anthony on the all time scoring list (though it took Arinze three seasons to accomplish what Melo did in one).

As reported in earlier blogs, Onuaku is toying with some Syracuse records. He is the all time worst free throw shooter in Syracuse history, and with his 33% shooting this year (33 of 99), he is securing that position. His career total is now 118 for 290, 40.7%, keeping him well ahead (or behind) of Terrence Roberts (48%). Onuaku is on the verge of shattering the single season free throw shooting record, with his 33% shooting. The previous mark, for someone with over 100 shots, is 42.1% by Terrence Roberts who went 56 of 133 in the 2005-2006 season.

On the positive side, Onuaku is still on pace to set the single season field goal accuracy. He is 127 of 188 from the field, at 67.6%, ahead of Roosevelt Bouie’s 65.4% in 1979-1980.

Other items of note: Devendorf is now 7th all time in three point field goals. Flynn is at 19th, and Andy Rautins is 10th all time.

Flynn is now 14th all time in assists. Devendorf is just behind him at 15th.

Let’s hope there is a lot to cheer for in the last five conference games this year.

2-0, Many to Go

The Orangemen are off to a 2-0 start. Manhandling LeMoyne was expected, and Richmond was a good early season challenge. I think like a lot of fans, I would have hoped for an easier win; partly because it would have been easier to watch, but also because it would have been an indicator of how much better Syracuse was this season than last.

The expectation clearly would be that the Orange would be better this year. The team lost only one player from last year, 1st round pick Donte’ Greene. Losing the talent of a first round pick can hurt a team. But look at what the Orangemen gained for this season: an extra year of experience and maturity for Jonny Flynn, Paul Harris, Kris Ongenaet, Arinze Onuaku and Rick Jackson ; the healthy return of Andy Rautins and Eric Devendorf; the arrival of highly tauted freshmen Kris Joseph and Mookie Jones. That’s a lot of significant plusses versus the one minus. So without even playing a game, we could feel confident they were better than last year.
The team is better, but the schedule this year is significantly tougher too. The conference schedule is absurdly difficult, and the non-conference schedule is one that Dick Vitale would not complain about. So Syracuse is going to lose some games this year, and likely some non-conference games.

That is what made the win over Richmond so crucial. Syracuse cannot afford the bad losses this year, and a loss to Richmond, at home, would have been a bad loss . That does not mean that Richmond was not a difficult team to play; they were. Their motion offense can be difficult to handle defensively, and they had some guys who can shoot threes, and Atlantic 10 teams had beaten Syracuse three times in a row.

There were things I was happy to see in the Richmond game. Eric Devendorf played like the Devo we knew pre-injury. He played with emotion, he took and made some crucial shots, and he took over the game at the right moment and time. He also showed the typical Devo careless turnover (seven of them) and some shaky defense at times. His contributions on the court greatly exceeded his errors.

Jonny Flynn showed he can still score and drive the lane. He made some impressive three point shots early on. And 27 points is a good night, no matter who you play. Arinze Onuaku was a stud inside, making every shot with ease in the first half, and most in the second (though missing a few gimmes). Kris Joseph showed some flashes of talent in his time on the court, and Ongenaet provided his usual quiet but necessary rebounding.

However, as nice as all those positives were, there was nothing new… no signs of growth for the team. We’ve seen Devo, Flynn and Onuaku play that way before, routinely. This was a game the team likely would have lost last year, but with Devo and Rautins on the court, we had expected (at least I did) that the meltdowns so prevalent last year would be less likely this year. Now, it is only two games into the year, so there is not a lot to look at for growth; I am just saying that we have not seen any yet.

Syracuse settled for playing on the perimeter far too much, shades of last year. Onuaku was unstoppable inside, and yet Flynn stopped feeding him the ball with about seven minutes to go in the first half. Why?

Devo wore his emotions on his sleeve as he always has, and rose his level of intensity in the second half. But I did not feel it was that contagious to his teammates. I would like to see Onuaku get fired up some time. I realize he could serious injure someone if he were out of control, but how about a scowl or a shout now and then? Paul Harris decided to be ‘no show’ Paul for the Richmond game. He played Jekyll and Hyde last year with his intensity vacillating game to game, and he just wasn’t there that night.

All summer we kept wondering how coach Jim Boeheim was going to spread the playing time at the guard position. We all knew that Jonny Flynn was too tired last year having to play every minute of every game down the stretch. With Rautins and Devo back, Harris able to play the guard, and freshman Mookie Jones also able to play time there, Flynn was clearly going to get his break. Instead, Flynn played 39 of the 40 minutes. Now historically, Boeheim has always ridden his point guards; Sherman Douglas and Pearl Washington almost never left the game. But the constant theme last year was how tired Flynn was, so I expected a change.

Rautins and Devo both got their playing time, with 26 and 31 minutes respectively. Syracuse played a lot of three guard offense, with Rautins taking the forward defensive position. I’m sure we will see a lot of that this season.

Jonny Flynn is a decent free throw shooter, making 78% of his shots last season. But also similar to last season, Flynn missed the crucial free throws down the stretch. Not enough to cost Syracuse the game, but enough to allow Richmond to hang around and have a shot at it. The ball is going to be in Devo, Flynn and Rautin’s hands down the stretch; Flynn’s going to have to starting making those.

Rautins was very cold from the perimeter, going 0-5 from three point range. He was taking the three point shots from long distance, and his shots were consistently long. I’m confident he’ll start making them, but it would have been nice to have seen him make them now.
Syracuse has a very deep bench, and Boeheim only went eight players deep. Freshman Mookie Jones did not even play, and Rick Jackson played only nine minutes. Again, Boeheim almost always goes to a short bench in close games; I am just surprised the Jones did not get into the game in the first half.

Syracuse is lacking a strong scoring presence from the forward position. Harris can score, but he prefers to do it by having the ball in his possession and driving from the perimeter like a guard; Syracuse does not need another guy who can drive from the perimeter. Ongenaet only gets garbage shots. They need a guy who can slash to the hoop without the ball and get the feed, and I have not seen that yet. I’m hoping Kris Joseph will be that guy.

But hey, it is only two games. Syracuse is 2-0; they’ve done what they need to do at this point. The positives we expected were there. There is a lot to build upon and still a lot of potential for the team. I’m very confident the NCAA tournament is in their future, and the team will be a lot of fun to watch.

Let’s go Orange!

Fast Start

The Orange are off to a nice 2-0 start in the Big East with wins over St. Johns and South Florida. These were games that Syracuse was expected to win, but no win is easy within conference play.

A solid effort from all five starters today, and a good mix of zone defense and man-to-man defense from the team. Free throw shooting as a unit continues to scare me, though the primary ball handlers Flynn and Greene have been doing well. Some balanced scoring with 8 guys in double digit scoring in two games is another positive sign, though with a shallow bench and a high scoring style of play, the starters are going to get plenty of opportunities to score.

Donte’ Greene is off to a fast start scoring in conference play with 43 points. 8 fouls in 66 minutes of play has me concerned (a 12 fouls in his last 94 minutes), along with 7 turnovers. On a team short on reserves, Syracuse needs Greene on the court as much as possible.

Arinze Onuaku has been a very pleasant surprise in the early going of conference play. 18 of 25 from the floor for 39 points, and 25 rebounds. Very nice start big guy. Syracuse has not had a dominant big center since Etan Thomas in 1999-2000.

Paul Harris has shown a nice mix of skills, with 7 assists in the St. Johns game, and 13 rebounds and 20 points in the South Florida game.

Jonny Flynn has 13 assists and 5 turnovers in the first two games. A very strong start for the freshman point guard. His backcourt mate Scoops Jardine looks like he is getting adjusted to his starting role and is providing some excellent support. 12 assists and 1 turnover in his first two Big East games; that is outstanding. Throw in nine rebounds and five steals, and Jardine is becoming a huge asset to the Orange.

The bench, all two of them, are struggling. Rick Jackson is struggling to get into the offensive flow. He showed tremendous ability earlier in the season, so a little more seasoning here should help. Kris Ongenet seems overwhelmed at his point by the more rugged play in the Big East. In his first 18 minutes of conference play he has picked up 8 personal fouls (earning a disqualification in the South Florida game with 5 fouls in 12 minutes), and he has only 1 rebound.

There is going to become a moment in the Big East season where Jackson and Ongenet are going to be counted on for some valuable productive minutes, so it is important for Syracuse to get these two guys going. Greene is walking a fine line with his foul trouble right now, and sooner or later, every player gets into some foul trouble.

It is only two games, and games against opponents that Syracuse should have beaten. It is however pleasing to see the Orange have done what they should have done; that does not always happen. Their first conference road game is at Cincinnati this Wednesday. This is another game the Orange should win, but you can ask Louisville how that goes. The Cardinals lost at home to Cincinnati in the Big East opener on January 1st, 58-57. So this will be another good test for the young Orangemen.

Go Orange!

2006-07 Milestones

The 2006-2007 season has been completed for a few weeks now. The senior class is widely recognized as an underachieving class, both in terms of NCAA accomplishments and personal growth. It is true that in the three seasons they were significant contributors the team was 0-2 in the NCAA tournament, and was excluded from the third. On the other hand, they did contribute in back-to-back Big East Championships.

But the season is over, so it is time we can reflect on how the players did in personal accomplishments.

Demetris Nichols finished as the schools 28th all-time leading scorer with 1,344 points, tying him with Bullet Billy Gabor. Terrence Roberts finished at #50, with 963 points. Eric Devendorf, after two seasons, has 945 points, 53rd all time. Darryl Watkins comes in at 86th with 633 points.

If Devo keeps up his pace, he’ll finish around 9th all-time.

Roberts finished as the 18th all time rebounder with 716. Watkins is 25th with 614, and Nichols 35th with 509. Freshman Paul Harris had 248 rebounds, good enough to place him 66th on the all-time career list. Devo comes in at 79th with 180, Matt Gorman at 9th with 142.

If Harris were to play four years at 248 rebounds a year, he’d finish 6th all-time at Syracuse; the reality is that if he stayed four years, he would likely increase his average, and would finish at #2. I think Derrick Coleman is safe at 1,537 for now (Coleman had 333 rebounds his freshman year).

Devo is currently 30th on the Syracuse all-time assist list with 227. The enigmatic Josh Wright comes in at 32nd with 216. Nichols is 55th with 132, Roberts 58th with 121, Andy Rautins 80th with 60, Watkins 84th with 61, and Harris is 87th with 57. Statistics were only an official statistics as of the 1965-1966 season, so there’s not a ton of history to compare against.

There have only been 70 players to make a three point basket for Syracuse, with the shot being introduced in the 1986-87 season. Nichols finished 3rd all time with 205 3 point field goals. Devo is 13th with 104, Rautins 17th with 82 and Wright 30th with 34.Gorman is 38th with 17, Roberts 46th with 5, and Harris is 57th with 1.

How does Harris’ freshman campaign stack up? His 248 rebounds is 5th all-time for a Syracuse freshman. He was third all time in free throws made, and 14th all-time in points scored with 302.

Devo had the 6th most assists ever for a sophomore, and was 8th in points, and 5th in 3 point field goals made. Rautins had the third most three point fields goals ever for a sophomore.

Wright has the 9th most assists ever for a junior (and he did not make the top 10 in most turnovers).

Nichols finished with the 8th most points for a senior and the 2nd most three point baskets by a senior. He increased his scoring from his junior season to his senior season by 197 points; that’s only good enough for the 20th biggest increase from a junior to senior season (if you were curious).

26 times a Syracuse basketball player has had 50+ 3 point fields goals made in a season. Three occurred this season as Nichols, Rautins and Devendorf all accomplished the feat. The only other time that has occurred? 2005-2006 with Gerry McNamara, Devo and Nichols accomplished the feat.

Nichols 41.7% from three point range last season was the fourth best in Syracuse history for players with 100+ three point attempts.

Nichols 85% from the free throw line was 9th best in school history for players with 100+ free throw attempts.

Harris was a rebounding machine, almost leading the team in rebounding despite playing about 22 minutes a game. He averaged 13.08 rebounds per every 40 minutes of playing time; 4th best total in school history (though minutes played was only tracked starting in the early 80s). Derrick Coleman holds the top three: 13.77 (junior), 13.65 (senior), 13.55 (sophomore). Harris does hold the freshman record; Coleman had held it with 11.45.

Finally, Syracuse University played its 1,700 men varsity basketball game last season. Jim Boeheim coached his 1,000th game, and reached 750 career wins.

As Freshman Rebounders Go

Anyone who has watched Syracuse freshman Paul Harris play this season quickly realized that he is a terrific rebounder. Despite starting only one game this year, he is second on the team in rebounds with 229, and had a masterful 15 in the loss to Notre Dame the other night. Harris came to Syracuse with extremely high fan expectations (far too high in my opinion at the time), and it is rumored he would have gone straight to the NBA if new rules had not prohibited it.

The new rule probably is fortunate for Harris. While he shows sparks of defensive brilliance, and outstanding rebounding, he has often seemed totally lost in the offensive scheme and has demonstrated little shooting ability 10 feet and out. He has shown he is an explosive scorer near the hoop, and there is a lot of promise in this young man, and it appears we are fortunate to have him gracing the Orange uniforms. A few years in college basketball should help him adjust and develop his offensive game.

How good has Harris’ freshman year been? He hasn’t been a starter, so his stats may look askew. He has only 7.2 rebounds per game. I say only, because that’s still an impressive number as a freshman. Only five Syracuse freshman have ever exceeded that mark and they were all starters:

Carmelo Anthony 10.0 rpg
Dale Shackleford 8.8 rpg
Derrick Coleman 8.8 rpg
Roosevelt Bouie 8.1 rpg
John Wallace 7.6 rpg

In terms of total rebounds, Harris is still fifth behind the following: Anthony 349, Coleman 333, Billy Owens 263, Shackleford 256 and Bouie 242.

Harris’ stats are deflated because he has not been a starter nor played starter minutes. I figured I would check all Syracuse freshman since 1982-83 (the first season I have minutes played information), and see which freshman had the best rebound per minute. I multiplied the number by 35, since a start player would play about that many minutes per game if given the opportunity, and that makes the numbers more intuitive I think (it doesn’t change the results). I also restricted the list to freshman who played at least 300 minutes. Harris has 229 rebounds in 693 minutes of playing time. That works out to 11.57 rebounds per 35 minutes played, which is by far the best number any Syracuse freshman has had (at least since 82-83, and freshman couldn’t play prior to 73-74 anyhow). The top seven Syracuse freshman rebounders per 35 minutes played is as follows:

Paul Harris 11.57 (229 total rebounds)
Derrick Coleman 10.02 (333)
Hakim Warrick 9.66 (168)
Wendell Alexis 9.61 (134)
Carmelo Anthony 9.60 (349)
Etan Thomas 9.01 (105)
John Wallace 8.96 (221)
Rony Seikaly 8.94 (198)

Coleman was always a terrific rebounder, and if you remember had 19 rebounds in the national championship game against Indiana. Alexis was somewhat of a surprise to me, though I do remember how often he and Rafael Addison used to come into games their freshman year and help out the Orangemen. Alexis sat behind Tony Bruin and Andy Rautins’ dad Leo, so it was tough getting his playing time. Carmelo didn’t have any upperclassmen in his way, so he got all the playing time he needed.

In fact, if you look at the top five Orangemen in terms of rebounds per 35 minutes played, regardless of class, Harris would be #4 on this list. Mr. Derrick Coleman, the NCAA’s all time leading rebounder, holds the top three positions with 12.04, 11.95, 11.86. Harris would be fourth with his 11.57, and then Rony Seikaly comes in fifth at 10.81, and Owens sixth at 10.69.

Of course, it is important to remember that when you extrapolate statistics, you are making assumptions that may not hold true. Averaging 21.7 minutes per game, Harris can expended a lot of energy in short bursts, and that could help to inflate his rebounds per minute. If he were to play 35 minutes per game, he could likely tire and be less effective per minute, though still getting more total rebounds.

Just to look into the ‘what if’ scenario a little further, I figured out what Harris’ scoring would be if he played 35 minutes a game (same caution holds as mentioned above). He would have 14.2 points per 35 minutes played, which would be good for 8th on the all time Syracuse freshman list. The top five freshman in scoring per 35 minutes played are:

Carmelo Anthony 21.4
Lawrence Moten 18.9
Sherman Douglas 16.6
Rafael Addison 16.0
Eric Devendorf 15.8

The surprise on that list was Douglas. For those of us old enough to remember the General, he came out of no where his sophomore season to lead the Orangemen to the national championship game. Yet, if we had looked at the numbers the year before, you could see was quite productive in his minutes played, limited because of the great Pearl Washington ahead of him.

I will be curious to see how Paul Harris develops and grows the next couple of years, especially with the graduation of Syracuse’s front line: Demetris Nichols, Darryl Watkins and Terrence Roberts. He’ll have ample opportunity to get his playing time next year and show what he can really do on a regular basis.

For now, we can just sit back and watch him provide his rebounding spark against the opposition in the upcoming NCAA tournament.

Season Milestones

The new basketball season is upon us, and because of the BCA, its already 4 games old. The Orange have an impressive collection of talent this season, a lot of question marks, and an lot of upside potential. This season will play out, and we’ll find out how good they really can be as a team.

How about the personal accolades? Let’s take a look at the numbers, and see what guys may achieve this year regarding the SU record books.

How likely is it that Paul Harris or Mike Jones might reach some freshman milestones? The single season scoring record for a Syracuse freshman is 778 points by Carmelo Anthony in 2003; that’s unlikely to be challenged as neither Harris nor Jones will be counted on to lead this team in scoring. But could they make the top 10 freshman efforts?

Here’s the top ten freshman scorers for Syracuse:

Carmelo Anthony 778 points
Lawrence Moten 583 points
Billy Owens 494 points
Gerry McNamara 467 points
Pearl Washington 460 points
Derrick Coleman 453 points
Eric Devendorf 428 points
Dale Shackleford 331 points
Roosevelt Bouie 326 points
John Wallace 321 points

Based on his reputation, and some of the early season efforts, Harris could make a run towards the top of the freshman rebounding list. He won’t be a prolific as big men Anthony and Coleman, but Harris could have a serious shot at #3 Owens.

Carmelo Anthony 349 rebounds
Derrick Coleman 333 rebounds
Billy Owens 263 rebounds
Dale Shackleford 256 rebounds
Roosevelt Bouie 242 rebounds
John Wallace 221 rebounds
Rony Seikaly 198 rebounds
Louie Orr 194 rebounds
Lawrence Moten 192 rebounds
Hakim Warrick 168 rebounds
Otis Hill 168 rebounds

As for the assists, I would expect Harris to crack that top ten, though Pearl should be secure at #1. Kindel and Monroe both make the top ten even though they weren’t starters, and Devendorf was a shooting guard; if you’re a freshman guard with significant playing time, the assists will come.

Pearl Washington 199 assists
Jason Hart 184 assists
Michael Edwards 168 assists
Adrian Autry 164 assists
Gerry McNamara 155 assists
Billy Owens 119 assists
Eric Devendorf 82 assists
Ross Kindel 79 assists
Carmelo Anthony 77 assists
Greg Monroe 71 assists

Eric Devendorf had the 7th best scoring season for a freshman. How could he stack up to the other sophomores in terms of their career stats after two years? Lawrence Moten, the schools all time leading scorer would have 1,101 points after his sophomore season. Devo would need 673 points this season to catch up to Moten; very unlikely to occur. However, 572 points to reach 1,000 is plausible; Billy Owens and Sherman Douglas both exceeded that total their sophomore season (Douglas leading the way with 659). To crack the top 10 career efforts after his sophomore season, Devo would have to score 342 points; that amount would be disappointing for him and would surely be a certainty. If Devo duplicated his freshman season, he would have 852 career points, good enough for 6th on this list.

Career scoring totals after the sophomore season:

Lawrence Moten 1,101 points
Billy Owens 1,096 points
Gerry McNamara 1,001 points
Pearl Washington 930 points
Derrick Coleman 927 points
Rafael Addison 826 points
Sherman Douglas 805 points
Erich Santifer 798 points
Carmelo Anthony 778 points
John Wallace 770 points

As for assists, Devo would need 93 assists to crack the top 10; he had 82 last season. Devo had 50 3 point baskets last year, 3rd best for a freshman. He’s already the 20th most three point shots at SU. If he simply repeats his frosh season, he’ll be #13 all-time. Likely he’ll improve upon last year, and will break the top 10.

In terms of the senior class, Demetris Nichols has 681 career points, Terrence Roberts has 669 points, and Mookie Watkins has 366 points. Nichols and Roberts will surely make 1,000 points, needing 319 and 331 points respectively; they both should do it. Watkins needs 634 points… he won’t make it.

Roberts has 450 career rebounds; he’ll need 331 to catch Louis Orr for #10. TRob could make that top 10, but it would require a solid season from him. Watkins has 365 career rebounds; he won’t make the top 10.

Only five Orangemen have had a natural triple double (10+ points, rebounds and assists in a game). Paul Harris has show the ability to score and rebound… he could get a big assist game and get that rarity.

Coach Jim Boeheim will add to his Syracuse record 729 wins. He already has 4 this year, getting him to 733… he needs 21 to get to 750, almost a surety with his routine habit of winning 20+ a year.

The last Syracuse basketball player to win Big East Player of the Year was Hakim Warrick, only two seasons ago. The last Orangeman to win Big East Rookie of the Year was Melo in his fabulous freshman season. The last Orangeman to win Big East Defensive Player was Etan Thomas in 2000. And in 2003, Hakim Warrick became the last Orange player to win Most Improved Player of the Year.

If I were a betting man, I'd say Harris has a good chance at the Rookie of the Year, and possibly the defensive player of the year.

RY

High School Recruiting & the Orangemen

I hope Paul Harris is half as good as most Syracuse fans seem to think. You get the impression that anything less than a national championship, and Harris will be considered a failure (or more likely, many Syracuse fans will point at Jim Boeheim and say “See, with a great talent like Harris, and he still can’t win”... but that's another article for another time).

But this will probably be the last time you see me comment on Harris, or any other Syracuse recruit, prior to this upcoming season. For one thing, speculating on a high school kid, or a college frosh who has yet to see any court action has very little interest to me. Another is that its highly speculative, and history has shown me that there’s a lot of hype out there that doesn’t necessarily translate to success at the next level. And finally, I really only care about what a guy does accomplish, not what people thought he would do. There's already enough trash talk and hype in the media; I want some basis in reality.

Sure, a lot of fans will say that Harris is different. His credentials are impeccable. He’ll be the next Carmelo Anthony. Well, two comments there.

First, Harris does have amazing credentials, and some amazing physical capabilities. But then, so did Tony ‘Red’ Bruin, one of the top recruits out of high school, and an amazing vertical leap. Bruin was the MVP of the AAU Men’s junior championship before coming to Syracuse. Amazing credentials. There was talk of him going directly to the NBA, at a time when nobody went to the NBA from high school (unless their name was Darryl Dawkins). Red had a solid career at Syracuse, but never the career expected. Detractors will say that Bruin didn’t have a perimeter shot. Right, he did not and he never developed one. But you know what, Paul Harris doesn’t have one now either. That doesn’t mean Harris won’t develop one, but it doesn’t mean he will.

Or how about McDonald’s All-Americans Rodney Walker who did little at Syracuse before transferring? Or Billy Edelin, who’s off the court issues destroyed his career on the Hill. Ernie Austin was the top rated high school player in the country before coming to Syracuse, was outstanding on the freshman team, and yet off the court issues and injuries hampered his career.

Harris could be the next Dave Bing or Pearl Washington or Carmelo Anthony or Billy Owens. Guys who were as good as advertised (in Bing’s and the Pearl’s case, both were probably better than the hype… if that was even possible). But you just don’t know.

Which brings me to the second point. I see many references of Harris to Carmelo Anthony. I can understand why… high profile players coming to Syracuse, and Melo is in the recent history of SU fans. However, they are much different style players. But more importantly, really think about the SU team that won it all in 2003. That team was good, no doubt about it. Had tremendous poise, tremendous character. Perhaps more character than any Syracuse team I’ve ever seen; an unbelievable ability for a team to come back from behind, and to hold onto leads late in the game. And Melo was a big part of that (as was Gerry McNamara, Hakim Warrick, Josh Pace, Kueth Duany, Craig Forth and Billy Edelin). But the 2003 team rarely blew its opposition out; it was not a dominating team. The 2003 team was not the Big East #1 seed after the regular season; they went 13-3, but Boston College was better . The 2003 team did not win the Big East Tournament; they lost to UConn by 13 in the semi-finals, and Pitt won the tournament. The Orangemen made a fantastic run through the Big East tournament, playing tremendous basketball, outwitting, outplaying all their opponents, and baffling them with tremendous defensive efforts. And they deserve all their accolades.

But, its not as if the 2003 team was unbeatable, or that Melo made them the greatest team ever. They probably weren’t the best Syracuse team ever (I think the 1988 and 1989 teams were probably better, but had bad breaks / bad luck in the post season); they did win SU’s first tournament championship, and for that they get a great nod towards greatness. But if you want to talk about a collection of players and teamwork, well, some other SU teams could have been better. But we all know the best teams don’t always win the NCAA (North Carolina State and Villanova are the obvious answers there).

So, I’ll stop my digressing, and get back to the point. Even IF Harris was the next Melo, its not as if Melo made SU a dominanting team that scared the rest of the nation. If Melo didn’t do it… then why should you expect Harris to? Unfair to Harris isn’t it?

Two more comments on high school recruiting. Lawrence Moten, generally recognized as one of the best all-around players at Syracuse, a tremendous player from the first day he stepped on the court, was basically unknown to most fans before he played. All he did was become SU’s all time leading scorer and the Big East’s all time leading scorer.

It’s well recorded that Sherman Douglas had only one scholarship offer to a major division 1 school. He didn’t have too bad of a career at SU. One jump shot away from a National Championship; at the time of graduation, SU’s all time leading scorer, and the NCAA’s all-time leading assist man (since broken).

And of course, there are high school legends who go on to infamy. Wilt Chamberlain and Lew Alcindar were legends early in high school, and never disappointed anyone. But it’s a short list of players who were Parade All-Americans and eventually made it to the national basketball hall of fame (and John Thompson made it because of his coaching, not his playing).

So best of luck to Paul Harris. I hope he turns out to be a great player. But, I’ll be celebrating him for what he does do at Syracuse… not for what he might do, or what he could have been.

If you are interested in recruiting news, my blog won’t be the place to go. Try sites such as RivalsHoops.com or ScoutHoops.com. I rarely go there, but it could be for you.

Let’s go Orange!