Thursday, November 16, 2006

Season Milestones

The new basketball season is upon us, and because of the BCA, its already 4 games old. The Orange have an impressive collection of talent this season, a lot of question marks, and an lot of upside potential. This season will play out, and we’ll find out how good they really can be as a team.

How about the personal accolades? Let’s take a look at the numbers, and see what guys may achieve this year regarding the SU record books.

How likely is it that Paul Harris or Mike Jones might reach some freshman milestones? The single season scoring record for a Syracuse freshman is 778 points by Carmelo Anthony in 2003; that’s unlikely to be challenged as neither Harris nor Jones will be counted on to lead this team in scoring. But could they make the top 10 freshman efforts?

Here’s the top ten freshman scorers for Syracuse:

Carmelo Anthony 778 points
Lawrence Moten 583 points
Billy Owens 494 points
Gerry McNamara 467 points
Pearl Washington 460 points
Derrick Coleman 453 points
Eric Devendorf 428 points
Dale Shackleford 331 points
Roosevelt Bouie 326 points
John Wallace 321 points

Based on his reputation, and some of the early season efforts, Harris could make a run towards the top of the freshman rebounding list. He won’t be a prolific as big men Anthony and Coleman, but Harris could have a serious shot at #3 Owens.

Carmelo Anthony 349 rebounds
Derrick Coleman 333 rebounds
Billy Owens 263 rebounds
Dale Shackleford 256 rebounds
Roosevelt Bouie 242 rebounds
John Wallace 221 rebounds
Rony Seikaly 198 rebounds
Louie Orr 194 rebounds
Lawrence Moten 192 rebounds
Hakim Warrick 168 rebounds
Otis Hill 168 rebounds

As for the assists, I would expect Harris to crack that top ten, though Pearl should be secure at #1. Kindel and Monroe both make the top ten even though they weren’t starters, and Devendorf was a shooting guard; if you’re a freshman guard with significant playing time, the assists will come.

Pearl Washington 199 assists
Jason Hart 184 assists
Michael Edwards 168 assists
Adrian Autry 164 assists
Gerry McNamara 155 assists
Billy Owens 119 assists
Eric Devendorf 82 assists
Ross Kindel 79 assists
Carmelo Anthony 77 assists
Greg Monroe 71 assists

Eric Devendorf had the 7th best scoring season for a freshman. How could he stack up to the other sophomores in terms of their career stats after two years? Lawrence Moten, the schools all time leading scorer would have 1,101 points after his sophomore season. Devo would need 673 points this season to catch up to Moten; very unlikely to occur. However, 572 points to reach 1,000 is plausible; Billy Owens and Sherman Douglas both exceeded that total their sophomore season (Douglas leading the way with 659). To crack the top 10 career efforts after his sophomore season, Devo would have to score 342 points; that amount would be disappointing for him and would surely be a certainty. If Devo duplicated his freshman season, he would have 852 career points, good enough for 6th on this list.

Career scoring totals after the sophomore season:

Lawrence Moten 1,101 points
Billy Owens 1,096 points
Gerry McNamara 1,001 points
Pearl Washington 930 points
Derrick Coleman 927 points
Rafael Addison 826 points
Sherman Douglas 805 points
Erich Santifer 798 points
Carmelo Anthony 778 points
John Wallace 770 points

As for assists, Devo would need 93 assists to crack the top 10; he had 82 last season. Devo had 50 3 point baskets last year, 3rd best for a freshman. He’s already the 20th most three point shots at SU. If he simply repeats his frosh season, he’ll be #13 all-time. Likely he’ll improve upon last year, and will break the top 10.

In terms of the senior class, Demetris Nichols has 681 career points, Terrence Roberts has 669 points, and Mookie Watkins has 366 points. Nichols and Roberts will surely make 1,000 points, needing 319 and 331 points respectively; they both should do it. Watkins needs 634 points… he won’t make it.

Roberts has 450 career rebounds; he’ll need 331 to catch Louis Orr for #10. TRob could make that top 10, but it would require a solid season from him. Watkins has 365 career rebounds; he won’t make the top 10.

Only five Orangemen have had a natural triple double (10+ points, rebounds and assists in a game). Paul Harris has show the ability to score and rebound… he could get a big assist game and get that rarity.

Coach Jim Boeheim will add to his Syracuse record 729 wins. He already has 4 this year, getting him to 733… he needs 21 to get to 750, almost a surety with his routine habit of winning 20+ a year.
The last Syracuse basketball player to win Big East Player of the Year was Hakim Warrick, only two seasons ago. The last Orangeman to win Big East Rookie of the Year was Melo in his fabulous freshman season. The last Orangeman to win Big East Defensive Player was Etan Thomas in 2000. And in 2003, Hakim Warrick became the last Orange player to win Most Improved Player of the Year.
If I were a betting man, I'd say Harris has a good chance at the Rookie of the Year, and possibly the defensive player of the year.


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