As Freshman Rebounders Go

Anyone who has watched Syracuse freshman Paul Harris play this season quickly realized that he is a terrific rebounder. Despite starting only one game this year, he is second on the team in rebounds with 229, and had a masterful 15 in the loss to Notre Dame the other night. Harris came to Syracuse with extremely high fan expectations (far too high in my opinion at the time), and it is rumored he would have gone straight to the NBA if new rules had not prohibited it.

The new rule probably is fortunate for Harris. While he shows sparks of defensive brilliance, and outstanding rebounding, he has often seemed totally lost in the offensive scheme and has demonstrated little shooting ability 10 feet and out. He has shown he is an explosive scorer near the hoop, and there is a lot of promise in this young man, and it appears we are fortunate to have him gracing the Orange uniforms. A few years in college basketball should help him adjust and develop his offensive game.

How good has Harris’ freshman year been? He hasn’t been a starter, so his stats may look askew. He has only 7.2 rebounds per game. I say only, because that’s still an impressive number as a freshman. Only five Syracuse freshman have ever exceeded that mark and they were all starters:

Carmelo Anthony 10.0 rpg
Dale Shackleford 8.8 rpg
Derrick Coleman 8.8 rpg
Roosevelt Bouie 8.1 rpg
John Wallace 7.6 rpg

In terms of total rebounds, Harris is still fifth behind the following: Anthony 349, Coleman 333, Billy Owens 263, Shackleford 256 and Bouie 242.

Harris’ stats are deflated because he has not been a starter nor played starter minutes. I figured I would check all Syracuse freshman since 1982-83 (the first season I have minutes played information), and see which freshman had the best rebound per minute. I multiplied the number by 35, since a start player would play about that many minutes per game if given the opportunity, and that makes the numbers more intuitive I think (it doesn’t change the results). I also restricted the list to freshman who played at least 300 minutes. Harris has 229 rebounds in 693 minutes of playing time. That works out to 11.57 rebounds per 35 minutes played, which is by far the best number any Syracuse freshman has had (at least since 82-83, and freshman couldn’t play prior to 73-74 anyhow). The top seven Syracuse freshman rebounders per 35 minutes played is as follows:

Paul Harris 11.57 (229 total rebounds)
Derrick Coleman 10.02 (333)
Hakim Warrick 9.66 (168)
Wendell Alexis 9.61 (134)
Carmelo Anthony 9.60 (349)
Etan Thomas 9.01 (105)
John Wallace 8.96 (221)
Rony Seikaly 8.94 (198)

Coleman was always a terrific rebounder, and if you remember had 19 rebounds in the national championship game against Indiana. Alexis was somewhat of a surprise to me, though I do remember how often he and Rafael Addison used to come into games their freshman year and help out the Orangemen. Alexis sat behind Tony Bruin and Andy Rautins’ dad Leo, so it was tough getting his playing time. Carmelo didn’t have any upperclassmen in his way, so he got all the playing time he needed.

In fact, if you look at the top five Orangemen in terms of rebounds per 35 minutes played, regardless of class, Harris would be #4 on this list. Mr. Derrick Coleman, the NCAA’s all time leading rebounder, holds the top three positions with 12.04, 11.95, 11.86. Harris would be fourth with his 11.57, and then Rony Seikaly comes in fifth at 10.81, and Owens sixth at 10.69.

Of course, it is important to remember that when you extrapolate statistics, you are making assumptions that may not hold true. Averaging 21.7 minutes per game, Harris can expended a lot of energy in short bursts, and that could help to inflate his rebounds per minute. If he were to play 35 minutes per game, he could likely tire and be less effective per minute, though still getting more total rebounds.

Just to look into the ‘what if’ scenario a little further, I figured out what Harris’ scoring would be if he played 35 minutes a game (same caution holds as mentioned above). He would have 14.2 points per 35 minutes played, which would be good for 8th on the all time Syracuse freshman list. The top five freshman in scoring per 35 minutes played are:

Carmelo Anthony 21.4
Lawrence Moten 18.9
Sherman Douglas 16.6
Rafael Addison 16.0
Eric Devendorf 15.8

The surprise on that list was Douglas. For those of us old enough to remember the General, he came out of no where his sophomore season to lead the Orangemen to the national championship game. Yet, if we had looked at the numbers the year before, you could see was quite productive in his minutes played, limited because of the great Pearl Washington ahead of him.

I will be curious to see how Paul Harris develops and grows the next couple of years, especially with the graduation of Syracuse’s front line: Demetris Nichols, Darryl Watkins and Terrence Roberts. He’ll have ample opportunity to get his playing time next year and show what he can really do on a regular basis.

For now, we can just sit back and watch him provide his rebounding spark against the opposition in the upcoming NCAA tournament.

All Big East

The Big East just keeps getting worse and worse each year with the number of guys it puts on its first team. 11 players named to the first team. The Big East has always been bad on their math. Even in the early 80s they used to traditionally name six guys to the All Big East first team, usually with the distinction that Player of the Year was in addition to the five other guys. Then it grew to seven. Now eleven. It sure does take away from the honor doesn’t it?

Ten more guys made the Big East Second team. So, if you’re one of the top 21 players in the Big East, you’re on the first team or second team.

Thankfully the Big East has dropped having a Big East Third team. Guess they decided it might be a little too obvious is they started putting guys like Matt Gorman on an All Big East team.

They also put eleven guys on the all Rookie team. So I’m wondering what the qualification is to be on that squad? My guess is you were either a starter, or one of the top two reserves on your team. It seems to me they’ve honored every freshman they could have. I guess it’s a real slight if you are not on this team.

Congratulations to Demetris Nichols who made the first team. I’m pretty sure he would have made the first team even if it was five or six guys. If fact, there were five guys who were unanimous: Nichols, Herbert Hill, Roy Hibbert, Jeff Green, and Aaron Gray. Sounds like a great five… they should’ve stopped right there. I realize they wouldn’t be recognizing any guards, but the Big East has precedent for leaving a position off the first team. When Etan Thomas was a sophomore and junior, there were no centers on the Big East First Team; so he was voted the best center in the league, but did not make first team.

Nichols is the 15th different Orangeman to be named to the Big East First Team (overall they’ve had 25 recognitions).

Also congratulations to Eric Devendorf for getting honorable mention, and Paul Harris for making the All Rookie Team.

I also thought it was interesting that several players on the First Team are on their first All Big East selection. Demetris Nichols made his first selection, along with Russell Carter, Colin Falls, Herbert Hill, and Frank Young. That doesn’t happen too often. It also means it will be interesting who wins the Most Improved Player award… you have five guys who never were even honorable mention, and now are first team. That’s quite an improvement.

Regarding the new Syracuse Uniforms… they are hideous. Why couldn't Nike have picked Georgetown, UConn or Duke instead. Then I could mock them and tease their fans. Uggggh.

Nova Loss

I’m not sure if there is ever a good loss, but I was not disappointed in the loss the Orange had to Villanova. I thought the team showed it had grown over the course of the season, and showed some poise down the stretch. In the last few weeks, they seemed to finally have grasped the concept of working the ball inside out, looking for the open shooters and mixing that with strong moves to the hoop. They seemed to have improved their overall zone defense. Sooner or later it was inevitable that Andy Rautins would cool down, and it was good to see Eric Devendorf snap out of his shooting slump to carry the team.

Yesterday we saw one of the most impressive dunks I’ve seen in a while, when Paul Harris brought it home to end the first half. I’m not sure if a replay does it justice. And we almost saw one of the most miraculous come backs in basketball history. Syracuse was down by 6 points with five seconds to go, and no time outs… and they had a chance to win the game.

A few observations:

I’ve been saying for a while now that I think the Orange had to finish the regular season 6-0 to lock an NCAA berth. I think I still believe that; finishing 5-1 isn’t locking us into the tournament. I think 5-1 with the win over Georgetown is very helpful… but not a lock. Yes, we are 21-9, and 10-6 in the Big East. And if they did the selection right now, I’m fairly certain that we would be in. However, I believe a first round loss in the Big East Tournament would put us on the bubble.

It’s not that we need to add to our resume. It’s that a loss to St. John’s or UConn would damage that resume. Neither of those two teams are quality opponents, so a loss would be a bad loss. If I were on the committee, I’d want to know Syracuse is going to take care of business, and a loss there would not be an indicator to me. It would also leave the Orange at 6-4 over their last 10 games; that’s not bad, but it’s not a plus. The number of quality wins on the Syracuse resume is low: Marquette, Villanova and Georgetown. Especially when compared to the poor losses: Wichita State, Drexel, St. Johns, UConn.

We could still make the NCAA with a first round loss, but I think it would be from the bubble position. A first round win moves us to at least 22-10, with no worse than 7-3 in our last ten games, and a loss at that point would be to a quality team (in all likelihood). So, winning the first round should lock it in for us.

Demetris Nichols had a good chance at being the Big East Player of the Year, but I think he lost it with the end of the game yesterday. It’s a tight race this year, with none of the top five players really separating themselves from the pack. If Nichols had made both of the technical free throw shots, and then made the three point shot to win the game… that would have clinched the award for him. It would’ve been a great player pulling off the miracle ending to a big game. He’s made many big shots this year, but I think he needed that moment to do it. The fact he failed to deliver, as harsh as that may be, will likely be held against him, and I think that puts the ball back in the court of a front runner for Pitt or Georgetown.

Eric Devendorf looked great on the court yesterday, playing mostly in control. It was good to see him actually succeed when he put the team on his back; he’s tried that a few times this season but with little success. He still had his five turnovers, and he did miss ten shots, but it was a great effort for Devo. It was the first time since the 2003-04 season that two different Orangemen have scored 30+ points in a game in one season (Hakim Warrick and Gerry McNamara did it that season). It’s also the first time an Orangemen has scored 30+ points in a road game since Warrick did it against Nova in February 2005.

Terrence Roberts is playing extremely inspirational basketball. I’ve questioned his toughness before, but its amazing the toughness and grit he’s shown the past couple of games. Playing on one knee, and only 24 minutes of playing time he pulled down 8 rebounds (four offensive), and showed some solid defense. Now he did go 0-2 from the free throw line ( that’s 54-108 50% for this season, 167-347, 48.4% for his career ), and he took another three point shot and missed (Why does he even try? For his career he’s now 5-25, 20%). But Roberts is going out on a positive note… and that’s how a lot of people will remember him.

Andy Rautins finally had his hot streak snapped, and was 2-11 from three point range. However, for those who think he offers little else on the court, he still played tremendous zone defense, and had four assists with only one turnover.

Did I mention Paul Harris’ dunk? Wow. If anyone has been paying attention, Harris is only 10 rebounds off the team lead. Not too bad for a guy who hasn’t had nearly the minutes many thought he should.

Nova shot 29-32 from the free throw line. You’re not going to win too many games when the opponent shots that many free throws and makes 91% of them.

I’m trying to keep an open mind about Syracuse having new uniforms. I’m not optimistic on what I’ll think. And if any color but Orange is the dominant color, I’ll be extremely disappointed. I am getting tired about everything always being about money. I’d like to see a college actually do something for another reason. Perhaps, maybe for educational purposes, pride, history, tradition, etc. I can think of a lot of reasons… the monetary focus needs to be toned down several notches.

Don’t think it can be done? Hey, this blog is written for free, and I hope you find it has some quality to it. And there are several other blogs out there regarding Syracuse basketball, all of them with quality, and most of them done by fans who have a passion for the game and for the team. So money does not need to drive everything.

Go Orange!

RY

When You're Hot You're Hot

When you’re hot your hot. Over the last four games, Andy Rautins has been on fire from three point range. The lanky sophomore is 17 of 28 from three point range (60.7%). That’s an amazing four game clip. And he’s been consistent… it’s not like one or two big games in that four game stretch. Rautins has gone 4-5, 5-8, 3-6 and 5-9 from outside the arc in that stretch.

It does beg the question, though, what is going to happen to the Orange when Rautins has an average night? It’s unreasonable to expect him to continue at a 60% clip (though I’m sure his few remaining critics will bash him next time he goes 1-4). During this four game losing stretch the Orange would likely have lost to St. Johns and Providence if Rautins had made one less three in each game, and both the South Florida and UConn games were close until about 3 minutes to go. In both those cases, if Rautins hadn’t been hot, Syracuse could have been trailing with about 3 minutes to go, and that changes the entire complexion of the team.

Over the same four game period, Eric Devendorf has shot a horrendous 14 of 50 from the floor (28% !!). Demetris Nichols has made some big shots, but he’s mired in a 16 for 48 slump (33%). I guess hope is there is Rautins starts to shoot more human, that Devo and Nichols might both pick up their scoring.

Cuse Country points out that the current configuration of Devondorf, Rautins, Nichols, Harris and Watkins is likely the best Syracuse combination on the court. I agree with that, and I do think it has the best chemistry. Boeheim has struggled all year with how to get Harris on the court, and the key really is that the 6’3” Harris (there’s no way he’s his listed 6’5”) is a much better power forward than any other position, and the loss of Roberts is opening opportunities for Harris, in many ways.

First of all, Harris is only effective if he can drive to the hoop. With Harris, Roberts and Watkins all on the court at the same time, that’s three Syracuse players and three defenders all hovering around the hoop. Far too much congestion. So if you take Roberts off the court, there’s some space beneath the hoop for Harris.

Second, when you have three shooters on the court like Rautins, Devo, and Nichols, the defense has to spread to cover them. That opens up the interior even more for Harris to operate. It also allows players like Rautins to make a nice cut to the hoop through a clear lane (and he made a beautiful move today that Harris promptly rewarded him for). So Harris as a ‘point forward’ seems to work well.

Third, with three perimeter players already on the floor, you need to have some inside guys, which means Josh Wright is off the court, allowing Harris to play 'point forward' and handle the ball more, something he is comfortable with.

As Orange fans we’ll have to be very concerned about the six man rotation Syracuse currently has, especially since Harris and Rautins aren’t used to playing more than 25 minutes a game. But it is an exciting unit, and right now, I’d rather watch them lose with this unit, then win ugly games with the old configuration (well… maybe I won't go that far).

Single Season Leaps

Demetris Nichols is having a great season, and his scoring is up significantly from last season. He’s scored 511 points this year, as opposed to 466 points last season. If the Orangemen play about 8 more games, he’ll get to 662 points, which would be a 196 point increase from last season. It begged the question to me, what is the record at Syracuse for the biggest point increase from one season to another?

There have been fifteen players in Syracuse history to have increased their scoring by 300 or more points from one season to another. Five of those were guys in their senior seasons:

Ernie Austin 348 point increase (445 senior year, 97 points junior year)
Greg Monroe 344 (490, 146)
John Wallace 341 (845, 504)
Danny Schayes 318 (496, 178)
Bob Kouwe 302 (349, 47)

Of that fivesome, John Wallace stands out as very impressive. Think about it: he scored 16.8 ppg as a junior, was a possible first round NBA draft choice, and came back to school and increased his scoring by 341 points (not to mention taking the team to the brink of a national championship). His increased scoring (5.4 ppg) and 8 additional games (that’s what you get for making a deep tournament run) accounted for the difference. Austin and Kouwe both had injuries their junior year, and Monroe and Schayes were on the bench behind seniors.

Four guys made huge scoring transitions from their sophomore year to their junior year:

Greg Kohls 536 point increase (574 points junior year, 38 points sophomore year)
Dave Johnson 418 (621, 203)
Demetris Nichols 360 (466, 106)
Preston Shumpert 333 (662, 329)
Otis Hill (482, 195)

Kohls has the record for the biggest single season increase; 536 points would be a great season by itself, and he increased his scoring by that amount.

Six guys made the big jump their freshman to sophomore seasons:

Sherman Douglas 513 point increase (659 points sophomore year, 146 points freshman year)
Marty Byrnes 359 (377, 18)
Todd Burgan 350 (459, 109)
Rafael Addison 304 (565, 261)
Hakim Warrick 304 (518, 214)
Stephen Thompson 300 (492, 192)

As much as all these Orangemen made huge strides, no player in Syracuse history made as big a leap as Nick Paul. Paul increased his scoring by 209 points from his junior season to his senior season. That doesn’t seem so amazing does it?

Consider that Nick Paul played from 1918-1920. The typical scoring leader averaged 150 points in a season in about 15 games or so. Paul scored 216 points his senior season (1919-20) to lead the team in scoring; he had scored only 7 points his junior season. He had scored only 1 point his sophomore season. Paul scored 216 points his senior season, after scoring a total of 8 points in his college career up to that point. And while I haven’t been able to confirm it yet, I believe 216 points was a Syracuse single season scoring mark at that point in time. That is an amazing transformation.

That would be about as remarkable as Matt Gorman suddenly scoring 28 points a game his senior season.

Debunking the Myth

I see many references on the message boards that coach Jim Boeheim hates to play freshman. Well, quite simply, I’d like to quickly debunk that myth.

Coach Boeheim has consistently played the best players on the court, regardless of their class. Keep in mind, by “best”, I mean the player who is the most talented and positive impact on the team today. Many fans get that confused with “potential”, meaning how good the player could be. One thing Boeheim has not done much with, is the “would of, could of, should of” scenarios.

Boeheim has been the head coach at Syracuse for 31 years. During that time, he has started 22 freshman. Sixteen of them were starters for virtually their entire freshman seasons, and six split time with other teammates.

Roosevelt Bouie
Erich Santifer (16 gs)
Andre Hawkins
Pearl Washington
Michael Brown
Rony Seikaly
Derrick Coleman
Billy Owens
Michael Edwards (18 gs)
Adrian Autry
Lawrence Moten
John Wallace
Otis Hill
Jason Hart
Etan Thomas (12 gs)
Jeremy McNeil (21 gs)
Hakim Warrick (19 gs)
Craig Forth
Gerry McNamara
Carmelo Anthony
Demetris Nichols (15 gs)
Eric Devendorf

That was the list of the starters. That does not even account for the freshman who has significant playing time from the bench, which would include players such as:

Stephen Thompson
Dave Johnson
Gene Waldron
Tony Bland
Rafael Addison
Wendell Alexis
DeShaun Williams
Louie Orr
Eddie Moss
Billy Edelin
Ron Payton
Richie Manning

Does Jim Boeheim start seniors and juniors over freshman more often? Sure he does. It would be foolish to think he would do otherwise. Seniors are more experienced, typically bigger and stronger, smarter on the court, and therefore, you would hope, better players. Do you think Derrick Coleman as a freshman was equal to Derrick Coleman as a senior? If you had Derrick Coleman (senior) on your team, would you take him out of the starting lineup so Derrick Coleman (freshman) could start? Of course not.

Historically speaking, when the freshman is deserving of playing time over his teammates, he has received it.

RY

Guards... be the playmakers

I may have more to write tomorrow on the Syracuse / South Florida game. Here's my quick observation. With 9 minutes left in the game, Demetris Nichols has taken only 6 shots in the game. He scored 57 points the past two games combined, and he's only taken six shots this game. Yes, he is cold... but let me repeat he's taken only 6 six shots this game.

Eric Devondorf and Josh Wright, who've been cold for a month or so (or so it seems), have taken upon themselves to heave up 18 shots so far (making only six). Only four assists between them.

All I know is if a guy has been carrying you lately, ride him. Rautins was 4-7 early in the second half from three point range. Hasn't taken a shot in the last 10 minutes. Devo and Wright... you've got to make an smart effort to get the ball to Rautins, or to get Demetris free... or get the ball to Watkins down low.

Again, guards... make the play. Get the rest of the guys into the game.

We may very well win this game... we've been leading most of it, though close. Our guards aren't playing it smart though.