An Undeniable Pattern

Demetris Nichols has been an enigma to me for the past three years. He physically looks like an NBA caliber player, has the athletic grace and a 6’8” frame. He’s reported to be an excellent perimeter shooter, which I’ve seen glimpses of. Each fall he gives us a sneak peak of how good I think he should be.

As teams shift from non-conference games to their conference schedule, you can expect to see some drop in a player’s individual performance. Tougher games are played on a regular basis during conference play, and there’s more wear and tear on the players. Nichols, however, seems to take that to the extreme.

Over his combined sophomore and junior seasons, in 34 non-conference games, Nichols has averaged 10.5 points per game, 4.7 rebounds, and 1.1 assists. During the same time period in 28 Big East games, Nichols averaged 7.7 points per game, 3.6 rebounds, and 1.0 assists. Over a 27% decrease in total points, and a 25% decrease in rebounds are somewhat larger than what you might expect to see. But its probably not too much outside the norm in drop off.

However, it is the disappearance of his shooting touch in Big East play that is absolutely mind boggling. Over his sophomore and junior seasons, in non-conference games, Nichols shot 45.3% from the floor, 38.5% from the 3 point range and 54.2% from the two point range. Those are pretty good numbers.

In Big East play over the same time period, Nichols shot 37.2% from the floor, 26.7% from three point range and 47.3% from two point range. The first two numbers are terrible. More amazing though, is that his three point shooting drops 11.8 percentage points. That his a huge difference. To give you some perspective on the three point field goal shooting change, in 2005-06 Gerry McNamara shot 33.9% in non-conference and 32.8% in Big East play, Eric Devendorf shot 38.7% in non-conference and 36.6% in Big East play.

So what to attribute Nichols drop in shooting each year? Fatigue? A style of play that does not suit him? More aggressive defenses? Psychology? Winter blues?

More surprisingly is the undefended shot, the free throw. Over the last two seasons, Nichols shot 71.0% from the free throw line in non-conference games. In Big East play, that plummeted to 61.9%. A drop of almost 10 percentage points on uncontested shots!

It had looked like 2006-07 was going to be different. Nichols was playing so well in the non-conference games. He averaged 19.8 points a game, shot a blistering 48.8% from three point range, and a McNamara like 89.4% from the free throw line. In December, he was peaking with 6 straight games with 20+ points, averaging 25.8 ppg during that stretch, including an impressive 31 points against Drexel on December 19th.

Nichols looked extremely confident in play, was making all the right moves. I wasn’t even concerned after the first Big East game against the Pitt Panthers. Pitt has outstanding defense, and while Nichols shot wasn’t falling, he still showed a lot of solid play on the court, including those special nuances you like to see your superstars make.

But now we’re three games into the Big East season. Yes, there’s still a long ways to go, but after three games, Nichols Big East stats are looking awfully familiar. He’s shooting 33.3% from the floor, 25.0% from three point range, and his free throw shooting once again dropped to 62.5%. Those are huge drops.

It’s only three games; statistically speaking that means nothing. I keep telling myself that. Yet, it’s following the Nichols career trend. And when you keep seeing a pattern repeat itself, you’re foolish to ignore it. I can’t explain why Nichols struggles in Big East play. I know its not all about the defense, because a large drop in free throw shooting isn’t caused by defense (fatigue plays into that, and strong defense can lead to fatigue, but not to that extreme).

Demetris, I haven’t given up on you yet. I still think you can be a star for Syracuse. Prove your historical numbers wrong, prove this analysis wrong, and show us you’re the play I had always hoped you would be. It was nice to get another glimpse in autumn, but while being Mr. October is great for baseball, its not what we want in basketball.

RY

Roberts Free Throw Quest

Terrence Roberts missed the St. Bonaventure and Hofstra games with his knee injury, and then didn’t get an opportunity at the line versus Pitt, so he’s been on hold with his quest for free throw shooting history.

An ironic twist occurred along the way against Marquette. The Orange as a team had a bad night at the charity stripe. The team was 0-6 from the line in the first half, on their way to a 21-35 night from the line. The game entered the final minute with the Orange having a slight lead. Marquette did the smart thing and fouled Roberts rather than let him score. And what did Roberts do? Well, the owner of a career 46.7% free throw shooting percent, calmly made both of his free throw shooting to basically seal the win for Syracuse.

And while I don’t expect the trend to last, Roberts has gone 5-6, 83% from the line in the last three games he’s played. Not quite Gerry McNamara numbers, but that would put him in the Eric Devendorf class. Of course six free throw attempts statistically means nothing… but Roberts easily could have been 0-6.

So for the season, TRob is up to 24-54 from the free throw line (44.4%), and his career percentage is skyrocketing (well, not quite) to 138 of 293, or 47.1%.

As a side note, the rapid improvement of Darryl Watkins at the free throw line has simply been amazing this year. Watkins was a career 48.2% free throw shooter entering this season. Yet, he has managed to go 35 of 50 for 70% for this season, and even improved to 8 of 12 for 75% in his first two Big East games. Mookie, my hat is off to you, and may you continue shooting it well from the free zone.

RY

BCS - No Time for Playoffs

I looked at my calendar this morning and saw that today is January 8th, 2007. A full seven days after New Years day, the day traditionally the major bowl games were played on. And what is so significant about today's date? Well, the BCS is playing its mythical national championship game tonight.

One full week after major bowl games were historically played. One of the biggest arguments that the NCAA and respective member universities used to make was that they couldn't have a playoff system because it would disrupt the studies of the student athletes with games running into the next semester.

Interestingly enough, they could have played semi-final games on New Years Day, giving a traditional 7 day gap between games, tonight's national championship game would still have been on the same date, with the same impact on the student's academic schedule.

That still would have left Boise State out in the cold; they weren't on anyone's top 4 list. Those four by consensus would've been Ohio State, Michigan, Florida and USC. I had mentioned my own solution a few weeks back, and my solution wouldn't have had a game playing on January 8th. And Boise State would've had a shot in that scenario.

If Ohio State wins tonight, I would concede them the national championship... two undefeated teams, one a tougher schedule. However, if OSU were to lose this game... I'm not conceding it to a one loss Florida team that struggled against FSU down the stretch.

Pre-Conference Schedule Records

The pre-conference schedule is done for Syracuse this year, with the Big East season starting Thursday night for the Orange. I’m sure a lot of Orange fans such as myself are glad it’s done; it has not been a start to a season that we’re accustomed to from Jim Boeheim’s squads.

I went back to determine how Boeheim’s teams have done in previous seasons in the “pre-conference” games; I’ve defined a pre-conference game as any non-conference game that occurs before the start of the Big East season plus any non-conference games that occurred in the first week of the Big East season; I excluded the first year of Big East play where there were only 6 Big East games for the Orangemen. Including this year, Syracuse is 260-27 over 27 seasons in pre-conference games. That’s a winning percentage of 90.6%.

Here’s the breakdown by year.

A few things to note. From the 1984-85 season to the 1993-94 season, Syracuse was an amazing 94-2 in the preseason games. I don’t care who you’re playing; that’s great. During that time frame they played in the Big East / ACC Challenge, along with some other tournaments, so not all the games were “creampuffs”. The only two losses during that time frame where to North Carolina and Arizona, both in the 1987 Great Alaska Shootout.

Even more amazing, from the 1988-89 season to 1993-94, the Orangemen didn’t lose a single pre-conference game, going 57-0. That includes memorable win over Indiana in 1988, Missouri in 1988, Duke in the 1989 ACC/Big East Challenge, Indiana & Iowa State in the 1990 Maui Classic, NC State in the 1990 ACC/Big East Challenge, Florida State in 1991, Tennessee in 1992 and 1993, and Arizona in 1994. So for those critics of Jim Boeheim, please review that list again.

In the 27 seasons of Big East play, Syracuse has only twice lost more than 2 games in the pre-conference schedule. In 1996-97, they went 8-4. That team would end up 19-13 overall, 9-9 in the Big East, and would lose in the first round of the NIT. Not one of the better Boeheim teams.

The other team is this year’s squad, at 11-3 as previously mentioned. I don’t know what that means, but not a good sign. The pre-conference schedule this year has had several setbacks to slow down the team’s progress. Darryl Watkins broke his nose, Terrence Roberts hurt his knee, several players missed games due to viral illness, and Eric Devondorf struggled through some off the court personal tragedies. So the team really hasn’t had too much time to be focused and cohesive. Unfortunately, the Big East season is now here, so they’ll have to put it all together in the big games.

Speaking of the “big games”; detractors of Coach Boeheim like to point out to his ‘cream puff’ schedule for all his wins. As pointed out, he is 260-27 in his pre-conference games, however as I’ve also mentioned, some of those were against some very good squads. Boeheim’s teams were 366-208 in all remaining games during that 27 year period: those would be Big East games, non-conference games in mid-season (typically a solid major conference team), Big East tournament games, and NCAA & NIT games. Boeheim’s squads win 64% of those games too. That’s a pretty good winning percentage against quality teams, almost 2/3rds.

Boeheim has a pretty good recipe: basically win all the games he’s supposed to win, and then win 2/3 of the tough games. There are always bumps in the road; nobody wins them all. But he wins most of them.

RY

Statistics I'd Like to See

One of my pet peeves is to hear someone state that statistics are meaningless. Anyone familiar with this blog or my website OrangeHoops.org, would easily deduce that I do place value into the numbers of the game. I do not think that statistics tell the whole story, but you can certainly tell a heck of a lot about a player from his statistics, and given the right statistical information you can predict a lot of future performances.

Let’s say you have two college players. Player A scores 25 points a game with 10 rebounds, 7 blocked shots, and 5 assists a game, while shooting 60% from the floor and 85% from the free throw line. Player B scores 9 points a game, with 2 rebounds, 0.5 blocked shots, 1 assist a game, while shooting 35% from the floor and 50% from the free throw line. Assuming no injury is impacting Player B’s statistics, I don’t think anyone would argue that Player B is better than Player A, even though you had not seen either player perform. Clearly, the statistics have some meaning.

Similarly, if Player C scores 17.9 points a game, and player D scores 17.1 points a game, there’s no conclusion at all that can be reached about the value of those two players, other than the fact they both average roughly 17 points a game. In this case, they have little meaning.

I think there are three reasons why a segment of fans disregard statistical evidence. First, is what I would call the Jeter Effect. I plan to write more about this concept at some other time, but suffice it to say it is when you place extreme value on the intangibles of a player and credit him with every good thing that ever happened, and throwing out all statistical evidence because it doesn't measure the intangibles.

The second is a segment of our population is poor at math, and anything to do with numbers to them is inherently bad. There’s really no way to convince these individuals that numbers can be good (there’s probably some of them who would argue that I can’t tell that Player A is better than Player B given my scenario above).

The third reason is that we are often given the wrong set of numbers, or incomplete information. And basketball is full of false numbers. If you don’t look at statistics in the proper context, they give a false impressions. I’m amazed when fans are impressed by a NBA player scoring 40 points in a given game when he’s shot 18 for 48 for the night. Heck, you take 48 shots, you had better score 40 points! Now 40 points on a 20 for 26 shooting effort is quite impressive. Extremely impressive.

When Wilt Chamberlain scored his record 100 points, the overlooked statistic is that The Stilt shot 28-32 from the free throw line that night. That's absolutely amazing, for any player, much less a guy who shot 51% from the line for his career. He was also 36 of 63 from the floor that night, a solid 57%. His 100 point night was a truly amazing night, even for him. Anyhow, I am sidetracked at the moment.

Cuse Country did an excellent job a week ago showing how offensive rebounding can be quite misleading, so I won’t go too much into it here. But simply put, the number of rebounds in a game are a combination of an individual’s ability to get a rebound combined with the number of missed shots. If there were no missed shots in a game, there would be no rebounds. So if a team shots 60% from the floor there will be less opportunity for rebounds than if a team shoots 30% from the floor. And you do need to factor that in, somehow. Unfortunately, to my knowledge, nobody tracks that information in college basketball.

There are other statistics that I think could be useful in providing us all with a clearer picture of what a player has accomplished. And as such, here are the five statistics I would like to see in college basketball.

Earned Rebound Average (ERA): I figure there are roughly 25 missed baskets a game, by each team [We could use any number, but 25 will do; it is all relative]. So in a given game, there are approximately 50 opportunities for a rebound. The ERA would be [number of rebounds] / [missed baskets by both teams] * 50. So if Player A had 10 rebounds in a game where both teams missed a combined 42 shots, then he would have an ERA of 11.90.

Assists In the Paint (AIP): Assists were designed to help show how another player, especially a point guard, has helped set up his teammates for baskets. I would like to see assists broken down a few ways. One way would be to show Assists in the Paint. This is the number of assists a player has to players who have scored while they were inside lane (‘the paint’). I think an assist to a player taking a perimeter jumper is valuable, especially if the point guard has driven into the lane and pulled defenders off the perimeter shooter, but sometimes that feels ‘cheap’ to me. AIP would at least allow us to quantify the different types of assists a player gets.

Free Throw Assists (FTA): We have all seen the spectacular pass to the inside player who goes up for the basket and is fouled hard by the opposition, missing what would have been a sure basket. The player gets to the free throw line, but the player who passed him the ball gets no credit. I think the purpose of the Assist is to measure how well a player sets up his teammates; and clearly, in these situations, he set them up well, and he should be given some credit. I would not tie the statistic to whether or not the player makes the free throws [why penalize a guy because his teammate is poor free throw shooter?]; if the guy gets fouled in the act of shooting, the player passing the ball should bet an FTA. Can you imagine how many FTA Sherman Douglas would have had?

Defensive Plus / Minus (+/-): I’m stealing a concept from hockey here. Defense is extremely difficult to measure statistically. Guys who block a lot of shots often are well out of position and actually playing poor defense, while other guys are holding their ground and preventing the other team from scoring by playing smart defense. That never gets measured. You cannot really look at how a guy does statistically against the guy he is ‘matched up against’. First of all, that has no value in a zone defense… the defender is guarding an area, not a specific player. Second of all, double teams occur, players switch off, etc. A +/- would be the difference in points scored by a team against points given up by a team during the time the player is on the court. Sure, a player would be hurt by being on the court with bad defensive players, but it would give us an additional measurement of how he is doing. A basketball player is 1/5 of the defense when he is on the court, so he’s going to have some impact, plus or minus.

Free Throw Percent broken down by First & Second Effort: We know a guy shoots 70% from the free throw line. But what we do not know is does he usually make the front end of a one and one, or does he miss it. There’s a big difference between shooting 60% on the front end, and 80% on the back end, versus 80% on the front end and 60% on the back end.

Assume two players; both are fouled 100 times in one and on situations. Player E shoots 65% on first effort, 80% on second. He would make 65 free throws out of 100 first attempts (65% of 100), and then 52 out of 65 (80% of 60 second attempts). He would score 117 points and shoot 117 of 165, or 71%.

Player F shoots 80% on the first effort, and 60% on the second. He would make 80 free throws out of 100 first attempts (80% of 100), and then 48 out of 80 (60% of 80 second attempts). He would score 128 points and shoot 128 out of 180, or 71 %.

Both players shoot 71% from the line, but Player F scored 11 more points for his team, which his clearly more valuable.

Now I do not know what the difference between shooting the front end and back end of a one and one are. But I think I would believe there is a difference. The second free throw attempt the player has the confidence of making the first one, less pressure since a second shot is not dependent upon it, and the player is more relaxed since more time has passed since he was actively playing.

I’m sure there are more statistics we could come up with. Let me know if you have any. I would love to have access to these five. With today’s technology, I could go throw line by line of every Syracuse game and derive these numbers myself. But frankly, I don’t have the time. I think it would be revealing. These aren't the answers to everything, but sure do help to answer some questions.

At the least, it would help paint a better picture of what the player was actually doing on the court. Who knows, we may actually find out if Craig Forth was indeed a better player than Jeremy McNeil? Or if Paul Harris or Eric Devendorf is a better two-guard.

RY

Merry Christmas

Merry Christmas to you all. I hope everyone has a wonderful holiday, and Santa Claus is kind to you this season!

Devo's Okay

A lot of rumors have been floating around about Eric Devendorf regarding the lack of playing time he's had, his performance while on the court, and his demeanor off the court. Jim Boeheim respect's the privacy of his players, and is usually mum about their personal business, leaving it up to the player to decide if he wants it to be public knowledge or not. In absence of real information, this fuels the rumor mill for the Orange Fan Nation.

Well, Devo played well last night against Hofstra, and opened up to WTVH News on what's been going on.

RY