Limited Opportunities for the Big Upset

The unranked Syracuse Orange pulled a big home upset on Saturday, beating #6 Florida State 82-72.  This was the first time since February 2008 that Syracuse pulled an upset and beat a Top 10 team in the Carrier Dome. 

That seems like a long time and it is; nearly nine seasons.  However, it is not due to multiple failures.  There just are not that many opportunities against Top 10 teams at home during that time span, and even fewer where Syracuse was the underdog.

Paul Harris

Since February 2008, there were nine occasions where a Top 10 team came to the Carrier Dome.  

Syracuse was the underdog in only three of them.  So really, only three opportunities in the past nine seasons, before Saturday, to pull the big upset at home.  Those are rare opportunities.

Syracuse has in part been a victim of their own success.  Six times they met a Top 10 team at home and the Orange were higher ranked.  The Orange went 4-2 in those six games.

Here are the nine games:

January 2016: Unranked SU lost to #6 North Carolina

March 2015: Unranked SU lost to #2 Virginia

February 2015: Unranked SU lost # 4 Duke

December 2013: #2 SU beat #8 Villanova

December 2011: #4 SU beat #10 Florida

January 2011: #3 SU lost # 7 Villanova

February 2010: #4 SU beat # 8 Villanova

January 2010: #4 SU beat #7 Georgetown

January 2009: #8 SU lost to #9 Louisville

So we had to go back to February 2008 to see the Orange upset #8 Georgetown in the Carrier Dome by a score of 77-70. Sophomore Paul Harris led the way for the Orange with 22 points that day.

Inevitable Win

The Orange were destined to beat a top 25 team this season; it simply was a question of when it would occur. The team has a lot of talent, streaks of playing well, and it was just a matter of time before it all came together for the right game.  Florida State, ranked #6 in the country, happened to be that opponent as the Orange took them down 82-72.

Jim Boeheim has been coaching Syracuse for 41 seasons now.  Over that time span, only twice have the Orange failed to beat a top 25 team in the season.  The first time that occurred was way back in 1977-1978, and the reason they did not beat any top 25 teams was that they did not play any.  Hard to fathom isn’t it.  The Orangemen were not in a conference, and none of their traditional rivals were ranked that year, at least not when the Orangemen played them.  The Orange could have played some ranked teams in the NCAA tournament, but they were upset in the first round by Western Kentucky.

The last time Syracuse did not beat a top 25 team was the 1980-1981 season, when the Orangemen went 0-2.  Those were the early years of the Big East, and the conference was only on the rise.  The Orangemen lost to #4 Maryland 83-73, and #3 DePaul 91-69.  The Orangemen would win the Big East Tournament that year, but because the conference had not yet earned an automatic NCAA berth, the team did not get invited to the tournament. They would go on a strong NIT run, and would lose to Tulsa in the NIT Final in overtime 86-84. 

The Orange have also beaten a top 10 team every season since 2006-2007.  The win against the Seminoles yesterday gives the Orange ten consecutive seasons where they have beaten a top 10 team. In 32 of Boeheim’s 41 seasons, Syracuse has beaten at least one top 10 team.  Three times they failed to play a top 10 team, and six times they did but failed to beat one.

Playing With Numbers

The Orange have struggled in the 2016-2017 season, losing their first six games against Power Five Conference (P5) schools, before beating Miami the other other night. The Orange are 9-6 on the season, with Tyler Lydon and Andrew White leading the scoring.

The team win/loss breaks down as follows:
P5 Teams (1-6)
Non-P5 Teams (8-0)
Against Former Big East schools (1-4)

By Day of the Week:
Sundays 0-1
Mondays 1-1
Tuesdays 3-1
Wednesdays 1-1
Thursdays 0-0
Fridays 2-0
Saturdays 2-2

By Month
November 4-2
December 4-3
January 1-1

When Tyler Lydon and Andrew White start the team is 9-6 (they've both started every game)
When starts by:
Frank Howard 8-6
DaJuan Coleman 8-5
Tyler Roberson 4-2
John Gillon 2-2
Taurean Thompson 1-1
Tyus Battle 4-2

When lead in scoring by:
Tyler Lydon  1-3
Andrew White 5-3
Tyler Roberson 1-0
John Gillon 1-0
Tyus Battle 1-0

When Tyler Roberson has 10+ rebounds:  1-1
When Tyler Lydon has 10+ rebounds: 1-2
When DaJuan Coleman has 10+ rebounds: 0-2
When Frank Howard has 10+ assists: 4-0
When Lydon or White score 20+ points: 3-2

Of course none of this really means anything. Just something to muse over.

Howard and P5 Games

I have been simply baffled by the Jekyll and Hyde performance of Syracuse point guard Franklin Howard this season.  His performance against P5 schools is dramatically worse than his performance against non-P5 schools.  

I understand that it is a tougher level of competition.  However, his performance against non-P5 schools is simply outstanding.

In the seven wins the Orange have against non-P5 schools, Howard has averaged 24.5 minutes of play. In that time he has game averages of:

8.9 points per game

9.1 assists per game

2.1 turnovers per game

3.2 rebounds per game

2.3 steals per game

4.3 assists/turnover ratio

9-17 three point shots (52.9%)

In the five games against P5 schools, all losses, Howard has averaged 22 minutes of play.  His averages are:

5.6 points per game

2.8 assists per game

2.8 turnovers per game

1.4 rebounds per game

1.8 steals per game

1.0 assists/turnover ratio

2-13 Three point shots (15.4%)

It's not like there is a one game aberration distorting the statistics.  He has played poorly in all five P5 games, and well to outstanding the remaining games.

Frank Howard

Clearly he has the physical tools to excel.  Four games with 11+ assists is not a fluke.  

In part his stats would be dragged down with his teammates also underperforming.  Of course, we get into issues of cause and effect there. Are Howard's stats down because his teammates are underperforming, or are Howard's teammates stats down because Howard is underperforming.  Obviously... it's both, but to what extent?

The 'cupcakes' are easier games.  I understand that.  But keep in mind that this year's team has scored 90+ points against four of those cupcake teams.  The 2015-2016 team never scored 90 points.  Nor did the 2014-2015 team.  The 2013-2014 and 2012-2013 teams each did it only three times  The last Orange team to score 90+ points in 4 games was 2011-2012, and that was a very special team.

So this year's team has the potential to be very special on offense, but they aren't delivering routinely.

I am hoping Howard can improve and grow into strong play against P5 teams. The ACC schedule starts after the next game, and that will be all he sees for the remainder of the year.

Happy Veterans Day 2016

On this Veterans day, as I have done each year past, I would like to thank all those who have served our country, putting their lives on the line to do those tasks that need to be done. The Orange basketball team has had its share of veterans over the decades. And has been tradition at OrangeHoops, I would like to recognize those former basketball Orangemen who did serve. I acknowledge this is not a complete list; only those I know of (each year I add a few more). I imagine more Orangemen were in the service that I am omitting; if so, please post a recognition here! Also please feel free to recognize any other veterans in the comments.

In World War I, the following served:

Albert Ackley
Bradley Barnard
Ross Bibbens
Meyer Bloom
Jim Casey
Ed Cronauer
Charles Fasce
Russ Finsterwald
Loyal Greenman
Ken Harris
Ted Huntley
Bernie Kates
Ken Lavin
Nathan Malefski
Danny Martin
Harry Martin
Walter ‘Dutch’ Notman
Walter Peters
Elias Raff
Billy Rafter
Horace Ruffin
Courtland Sanney
Clifford Steele

In World War II, the following served:

Jim Ackerson
Earl Ackley
Lou Alkoff
John Baldwin (Balsavich)
John Balinsky
John Beaulieu
John Beck
Gene Berger
Milton 'Whitey' Bock
Leo Canale
Dick Casey
Larry Crandall
Wilbur Crisp
Dan DiPace
Les Dye
Bud Elford
Alton Elliott
John Emerich
Bill Estoff
Bob Felasco
Paul Ferris
Billy Gabor
Ed Glacken
Joe Glacken
Marc Guley
Mark Haller
LaVerne Hastings
Lew Hayman
Bill Hennemuth
Bill Hoeppel
Tom Huggins
George Jarvis
Ed Jontos
Walter Kiebach
Jim Konstanty
Christian Kouray
Stan Kruse (Kruszewski)
Glenn Loucks
Guy Luciano
Saul Mariaschin
Bob Masterson
Paul McKee
Don McNaughton
Tom McTiernan
Francis Miller
Joe Minsavage
Andy Mogish
Roy Peters
Hank Piro
Paul Podbielski
Edward Pond
Phil Rakov
Joe Rigan
John Schroeder
Bill Schubert
Bob Shaddock
Wilmeth Sidat-Singh
Red Stanton
Mike Stark
Chester Stearns
Bobby Stewart
Joe Sylvestri
Charles Taggart
Ray Tice
Joe Weber
Ray Willmott
Bill Wyrick

In Korea the following served:

Reaves Baysinger, Jr
John Beaulieu
Bernie Eischen
Paul McKee
Paul Podbielski
Fred Serley

In Vietnam, the following served:

Reaves Baysinger, Jr
John Beaulieu
George Crofoot
Rick Dean
Sanford Salz

The following were veterans who served but were fortunate to miss a war era:

Vinnie Albanese
Art Barr
Mel Besdin
Rudy Cosentino
Roy Danforth
Ronnie Kilpatrick
George Koesters
Tom Jockle
Jack Malone
Frank Reddout
Eddie Rosen
Chuck Steveskey

Five of the aforementioned players deserve special note, as they sacrificed their lives in the line of duty.

Harry Martin was killed in 1923 when his plane crashed during takeoff at Kelley Field, Texas.  He was a Lieutenant and an Army Aviator.  Martin had served in the AEF in France in World War I.

Wilmeth Sidat-Singh was a member of the Tuskegee Airman, and was killed in a training accident when his plane crashed into Lake Michigan in 1943.

Joe Minsavage was killed in World War II on June 19, 1943 when his ship was attacked and he was lost at sea.

Charles Taggart was a member of the US Navy serving aboard the USS Frederick C. Davis, and was killed when his ship was torpedoed by a German U-Boat on April 24, 1945. Taggart and 115 crew members perished.

Gene Berger was killed in 1961 during flight maneuvers. He was a Commander in the U.S. Navy and a Naval aviator, and his plane would crash into the Pacific.

Get Psyched for 2016-2017

To put all Orange fans into the proper frame of mind, please flash back to Mr. Warrick in 2003.

Mr. Lee, say hello to Mr. Warrick

Relevance of Preseason Rankings

Syracuse basketball fans tend to feel it is better to be 'off the radar' and unranked when a season starts, rather than highly ranked.  The consensus seems to be that Boeheim's underrated teams over perform, while his highlly rated teams under perform.  How relevant is that feeling?

In Boeheim’s career, the Orangemen have started the season ranked 26 times, not including this year.

18 times in his career the team underachieved per the rankings; seven times by 10 or more ranking positions. This gets a little distorted because if you start in the top 5 it is tough to move up; the Orange have started in the top 5 four times (and in once case overacheived, 2011-2012 where they started at 5 and ended at 3).

17 times in his career the team has overachieved per the rankings. Again, seven times by 10 or more ranking positions

9 times a team started the season unranked, and finished the year ranked in the top 25. In 2009-2010 they started unranked and finished at #3. In his first season, 1976-1977, they started unranked and finished at #6.

8 times a team started the season ranked, and finished the year unranked in the top 25. The worst drop was in 1977-1978 where they started at #11 and finished unranked.

Really, it seems as if the number of over performing teams is equal to the under performing.

Boeheim’s Final Four teams:

1986-1987 started at #15

1995-1996 started unranked

2002-2003 started unranked

2012-2013 started at #9

2015-2016 started unranked

The Final Four trend is the most interesting to me. Three of those five teams started the year unranked. Only the 2012-2013 team had a reasonable expectation to make it.

The Orange start 2016-2017 as the #19 team in the country.  Not highly ranked, nor totally off the radar.