Tuesday, May 01, 2007

The Chamberlain Effect

Occasionally there is an athlete who is so superior to his competition that he puts up statistics that are overwhelming in their nature. They are in fact, so overwhelming, that fans cannot truly appreciate them and in effect start to devaluate the statistics. This is what I call the Chamberlain Effect, after the legendary Big Dipper Wilt Chamberlain.

Chamberlain’s 1961-62 season is legendary: 50.6 points per game, 25.7 rebounds per game, a total of 4029 points, including a 100 point effort against the New York Knicks. These numbers are so large, that I believe fans start to rationalize he couldn’t have been that good, and therefore they disregard the numbers entirely, or at least rationalize them away until they are trivial in their minds.

It’s one of the arguments that fans make when comparing Bill Russell to Chamberlain. The argument is that Russell was a better player because his teams won more championships; Russell ‘sacrificed’ his statistics so that his team would be better, and most would contend Russell was a better rebounder.

First of all, Russell played with a bevy of Hall of Fame teammates: Tommy Heinsom, Satch Sanders, KC Jones, John Havlicek, Sam Jones, Bob Cousy, Frank Ramsey, Clyde Lovelette and Bill Sharman. Chamberlain, in the same comparable time period, would play with a handful: Tom Gola, Paul Arizin, Nate Thurmond (1 year), Hal Greer, and Billy Cunningham. He’d later join up with Jerry West and Elgin Baylor, when all three were venerable veterans. So, it’s rather clear that Russell had a lot of talent around him on the court, and that played some part in all those championships. Russell absolutely was a key factor, if not the key factor for the Celtic dynasty, but it wasn’t a one man show. Unless one wants to argue that all those Celtics made the Hall of Fame riding on the coattails of Russell’s success (I would suggest that is hogwash).

Second, many fans will say that Russell didn’t score because he did not have to, and he could have scored comparable to Chamberlain if he wanted. Well, there’s no evidence that could ever have been true. You must assume, that if Russell were the intelligent player he is credited with being (and I do assume this to be true), that he would defer to his teammates when he was in a low percentage situation, and he would take the shot when he was in a high percentage situation. Given that, consider that Russell’s best season from the floor, he shot .467 (1959-1960). If he were to take significantly more shots, you would have to expect that number to go down, not up due to the need to take more low percentage shots, and general fatigue.

Chamberlain, on the other hand, taking all the shots, never shot below .461 from the floor in his career; and that was his rookie season. His next lowest season was .499, and he shot over 50% from the floor every other season of his career. The fact was that he could score, he could score big, and he could score with more ease than any other player on the court.

Third is the knock that Russell was a better rebounder. I guess he must have looked like a better rebounder, because somehow Chamberlain pulled down more rebounds each year, and for his career than Russell. Russell may have had better form, but the Stilt still got more. The NBA record for rebounds in a game is 55 by Wilt Chamberlain; and he did it against Bill Russell and his Celtics.

Russell was definitely a better defensive player, one of the best in league history, if not the best and an unparalled shot blocker. However, Chamberlain was a very good defender himself, and an effective shot blocker. Russell’s defensive edge over Chamberlain isn’t close to the offensive edge that Chamberlain had.

That’s not knocking Russell. Russell was a great NBA player, one of the greatest ever. He won all the championships, he was admired by the fans and the sportswriters, and an outstanding center. He was also on a team that allowed him to focus on what he did best (defense), and didn’t require him to be a strong offensive presence…which was good because it seems apparent he would never have been a dominant offensive threat.

Ask yourself this question about Chamberlain. If you put him on the Celtics, surrounded by all those Hall of Famers, coached by Red Auerbach, and you put Bill Russell on the Warriors with Paul Arizin and Tom Gola. Which team would have won the NBA titles? Chamberlain probably wouldn’t have had his 50 points per game; there wouldn’t have been the need, and Auerbach would’ve had him focused more on defense. He probably would have had a mere 35 – 38 points a game that magical 1961-62 season; he probably would’ve increased his shooting percentage from a lowly .504 to .550/.580 range.

The Chamberlain Effect occurs across sports. I believe Babe Ruth is a victim of this effect to some extent, and was Ted Williams. Perhaps 20 years from now fans will look retrospectively and apply the Chamberlain Effect to Barry Bonds (whose stretch from 2001 to 2004 was unbelievable).

Jim Brown suffers from the Chamberlain Effect from many fans (though I think he and Ted Williams both receive extreme respect from today’s athletes; it seems the athletes understand how significant these accomplishments were, more than some fans). Brown led the league in rushing 8 times in his 9 seasons, and led in scoring touchdowns 5 times. He averaged 5.2 yards per carry for his career. Again, the numbers seem too impressive, and so fans say “well, but…” or “compared to today…”.

There are times when statistics are misleading, and they must be evaluated in their correct context. All the greatest hitters in baseball didn't live in the 1930's and 1990's, and all the greatest pitchers didn't live in the 1910's and 1960's. Players in the 1960's weren't better rebounders across the board than players in the 2000's. Guys scoring 25 points for the Denver Nuggets in the 1980's weren't as impressive as guys scoring 20 points for the Detroit Pistons in the 1990's. But, sometimes (often), statistics point out the greatness they were intended to measure.

Monday, April 30, 2007

WKRP

My apologies for the lack of posts the past two weeks; work has been calling.

As an apology gift from me to you, here's a couple of classic TV comedy clips, two of my all time favorites. For you older readers (those of my age), you'll immediately remember these, I'm sure. For you younger readers, sit back and enjoy.

WKRP Thanksgiving Promotion

Reverend Jim's Driving Test

Enjoy.

RY

Friday, April 13, 2007

Roberts And The Free Throw Record

I must admit that I dropped the ball on the Terrence Roberts Free Throw shooting watch. All year long I kept you up to date on his quest for greatness, to be the worst free throw shooter at Syracuse University of all time. And he pretty much sealed the deal back in January. However, I do owe the man a final wrap up of this accomplishment.

Out of 59 players at Syracuse University who have attempted 200 or more free throws in their career, Roberts by far set the mark. His finished his career at 48.0%, 176 for 367, surpassing the legendary Stevie Thompson (52.7%) for the mark. Roberts wasn’t just satisfied with setting the career mark; he also made sure to nab the worst season performances, grabbing both the #1 and #2 positions. His junior season he was 42.1% from the line (56-133). His senior season he improved to 48.4% (62-128).

The Bottom 10 free throw shooters at Syracuse (minimum 200 attempts) are:

Terrence Roberts 48.0%
Stevie Thompson 52.7%
Darryl Watkins 54.2%
Rony Seikaly 57.6%
Jimmy Williams 58.1%
Etan Thomas 59.8%
Bill Smith 60.8%
Dale Shackleford 61.1%
Conrad McRae 64.8%
Otis Hill 65.3%

As I mentioned earlier in the year, the worst free throw shooters I ever saw on the Hill were Herman Harried and Derek Brower. And if you lowered the standard of free throw shooter to 100 attempts the Bottom 4 would be:

Herman Harried 37.8% (45-119)
Derek Brower 42.1% (67-159)
Louis McCroskey 47.2% (51-108)
Terence Roberts 48.0% (176-367)

Brower, if you recall, was responsible for an NCAA rule change regarding intentional fouling.

Some interesting notes about the bottom four. Harried, Brower and McCroskey combined for 386 attempts; Roberts had 367 attempts by himself.

McCroskey was a classmate of Robert and Darryl Watkins. We’re talking about three of the worst free throw shooters in Syracuse University history, all in the same recruiting class! Thankfully Demetris Nichols came along with his 75.2% shooting.

How bad were Harried and Brower? Brower was 67 for 159 in his career. If he had gone 41 for 41 to finish his career, that would have raised him to 108 for 200, or 54% for his career. He still would’ve qualified for #3 on the all time list with a minimum of 200 attempts!

Harried was 45 for 119 for his career. If he had finished going 81 for 81, he would’ve been 126 for 200 for his career, or 63.0%, coming in at #9 on the list. Egads.

Of special note is Hakim Warrick. He started his freshman season on pace to be the worst free throw shooter ever at Syracuse going 23 for 60 (38.3%). Yet, in his sophomore season he improved dramatically to 66.7% (124 for 186), and remained about that level for the remainder of his career. So whomever taught Hak how to shoot free throws that summer… sign him up!

Now Roberts was a frustrating player to watch for four seasons. The guy appeared to have tons of potential, but never seemed to put it all together. Yet, he was a solid player. He’d get his rebounds, do some scoring, play solid defense. He’d make stupid fouls, take silly 3 point shots (5-25 for his career), and shy away from physical play inside. Yet, he showed tremendous heart and hustle. He basically played on one leg his senior season, battled through a lot of pain, and managed to pull down 20 rebounds in the Big East tournament versus Notre Dame.

Roberts would play 127 games at Syracuse, score 963 points (7.6 per game), and pull down 716 rebounds (5.6 per game).

So Terrence, thanks for the memories! It was an adventure to watch you play.

Tuesday, April 10, 2007

2006-07 Milestones

The 2006-2007 season has been completed for a few weeks now. The senior class is widely recognized as an underachieving class, both in terms of NCAA accomplishments and personal growth. It is true that in the three seasons they were significant contributors the team was 0-2 in the NCAA tournament, and was excluded from the third. On the other hand, they did contribute in back-to-back Big East Championships.

But the season is over, so it is time we can reflect on how the players did in personal accomplishments.

Demetris Nichols finished as the schools 28th all-time leading scorer with 1,344 points, tying him with Bullet Billy Gabor. Terrence Roberts finished at #50, with 963 points. Eric Devendorf, after two seasons, has 945 points, 53rd all time. Darryl Watkins comes in at 86th with 633 points.

If Devo keeps up his pace, he’ll finish around 9th all-time.

Roberts finished as the 18th all time rebounder with 716. Watkins is 25th with 614, and Nichols 35th with 509. Freshman Paul Harris had 248 rebounds, good enough to place him 66th on the all-time career list. Devo comes in at 79th with 180, Matt Gorman at 9th with 142.

If Harris were to play four years at 248 rebounds a year, he’d finish 6th all-time at Syracuse; the reality is that if he stayed four years, he would likely increase his average, and would finish at #2. I think Derrick Coleman is safe at 1,537 for now (Coleman had 333 rebounds his freshman year).

Devo is currently 30th on the Syracuse all-time assist list with 227. The enigmatic Josh Wright comes in at 32nd with 216. Nichols is 55th with 132, Roberts 58th with 121, Andy Rautins 80th with 60, Watkins 84th with 61, and Harris is 87th with 57. Statistics were only an official statistics as of the 1965-1966 season, so there’s not a ton of history to compare against.

There have only been 70 players to make a three point basket for Syracuse, with the shot being introduced in the 1986-87 season. Nichols finished 3rd all time with 205 3 point field goals. Devo is 13th with 104, Rautins 17th with 82 and Wright 30th with 34.Gorman is 38th with 17, Roberts 46th with 5, and Harris is 57th with 1.

How does Harris’ freshman campaign stack up? His 248 rebounds is 5th all-time for a Syracuse freshman. He was third all time in free throws made, and 14th all-time in points scored with 302.

Devo had the 6th most assists ever for a sophomore, and was 8th in points, and 5th in 3 point field goals made. Rautins had the third most three point fields goals ever for a sophomore.

Wright has the 9th most assists ever for a junior (and he did not make the top 10 in most turnovers).

Nichols finished with the 8th most points for a senior and the 2nd most three point baskets by a senior. He increased his scoring from his junior season to his senior season by 197 points; that’s only good enough for the 20th biggest increase from a junior to senior season (if you were curious).

26 times a Syracuse basketball player has had 50+ 3 point fields goals made in a season. Three occurred this season as Nichols, Rautins and Devendorf all accomplished the feat. The only other time that has occurred? 2005-2006 with Gerry McNamara, Devo and Nichols accomplished the feat.

Nichols 41.7% from three point range last season was the fourth best in Syracuse history for players with 100+ three point attempts.

Nichols 85% from the free throw line was 9th best in school history for players with 100+ free throw attempts.

Harris was a rebounding machine, almost leading the team in rebounding despite playing about 22 minutes a game. He averaged 13.08 rebounds per every 40 minutes of playing time; 4th best total in school history (though minutes played was only tracked starting in the early 80s). Derrick Coleman holds the top three: 13.77 (junior), 13.65 (senior), 13.55 (sophomore). Harris does hold the freshman record; Coleman had held it with 11.45.

Finally, Syracuse University played its 1,700 men varsity basketball game last season. Jim Boeheim coached his 1,000th game, and reached 750 career wins.

Sunday, April 08, 2007

The Off Season

So what is up for Orenge Hoops during the off season? Well, the blog will be continuing. Even during the regular season, I don’t have a regular posting schedule. I’ll probably be more likely to post something every couple of weeks, but you never know… a few may come in a couple of days span.

I mentioned earlier in the year a concept called the “Jeter Effect”, and I promise I will get to that one day. I also have some additional concepts called the “Iverson Effect” and the “Chamberlain Effect”, which I’ll eventually get too.

You can also expect to see more commentary on past Syracuse teams, trends of the past few seasons, and where I see this team going. I won’t be covering recruiting too much. It’s not something I generally have too much interest in, and Orange Fan covers that very well. Likewise, Cuse Country covers former Orangemen in the professional action with great detail, so I’ll let them keep up the good work. I'm sure I'll have some words on the NBA draft.

I’ll also continue to update the ongoing project of OrangeHoops.Org. I’ve recently added the profile of the 1924-25 Orangemen, and a player profile for Otis Hill. I also need to finish my 2006-2007 player updates.

Anyhow, I just wanted to let you all know I’m still around, and the information will keep flowing.

I appreciate all the e-mails I have gotten! It is great to hear from you all. Thanks.

Tuesday, April 03, 2007

Harris going pro?

Paul Harris came to Syracuse with a lot of potential, and he had a solid freshman season. He showed he was an outstanding rebounder. His defense at times was stellar, and other times he looked lost. On offense, he demonstrated he had no jump shot of any form, and a tendacy to run like a bull through a China shop when he saw a lane to the hoop. When he didn't have the ball in his hands, he looked like he struggled where to go on the court. He still had enough talent to score, despite these obvious short comings.

So why do I mention this? Because ESPN's Chad Ford has Harris listed at 50/50 about going in the NBA draft this spring.

I don't have any idea what Ford's source is, whether he has talked to anyone or if he's just flat out speculating (I'm guessing the latter).

I personally find it inconceivable that Harris would even contemplate going professional at this point, unless he has pressing financial concerns that need immediate address.

Normally I don't like to post speculative articles, but considering that ESPN is a major media outlet, and Ford's opinion is completely in contrast with my own, I thought it was interesting to share.

Thursday, March 29, 2007

Orange Blogger Awards - Best Sophomore

And the Syracuse Orange Blogger Awards continue to move on.

Who was the best sophomore player for Syracuse this season? There are two viable candidates with Andy Rautins and Eric Devendorf. Ironically the two candidates fought for the same starting position for much of the season (shooting guard) and ended the season sharing the starting backcourt with Rautins settling into the shooting guard, and Devo taking over the point.

Devo came away the winner, with 7 out of 8 votes. For most of the blogs, he was such an obvious choice that no additional comment was needed.

Sports Night with Howie Mansfield felt “Devo came into his own this year, and pulled away from the shadow of Gerry McNamara with his aggressive style and no-fear attitude. If he scores next year the way he did in the last six games, Devendorf could be the Orange's go-to player.

Troy Nunes is an Absolute Magician focused on the obvious emotional edge that Devo brings to the court: “Although he lets his emotions get the better of him every now and again and even though he’s a part of the Terrell Owens club (If he played for anyone else, we’d all hate him), Eric Devendorf is the heart of the team and that will be even more so next season.”

Yours truly would add that “Devo was clearly the one guy on the team who wanted to be ‘the guy’, even if it at times he wasn’t the one who was best situated.”

Matt of Orange 44 was the lone dissenting vote: “Andy Rautins - Eric Devendorf is the obvious selection simply because of minutes played, but Rautins may have actually outplayed Rautins this season statistically. With a higher offensive rating and effective field goal percentage than Devendorf, Rautins actually contributed more to the Orange's success than Devendorf's efforts. Plus, he turned over the ball less than Devendorf, which, in my book, is the most important aspect to Rautins' contributions.”

Jim Boeheim has got to feel good about his back court for next season when he’ll have two experienced juniors returning, a couple of highly touted freshman guards coming in, and a senior point guard on the bench.

Tune in tomorrow at noon at Getting Back to ’03 to see who the Biggest Villain of the 2006-2007 season was.