Should Syracuse Fans Expect the Freshmen to Score A Lot in 2022-23?

One of the big questions for 2022-2023 season is where will the Syracuse offensive production come from.  The Orange are losing three of its top four scorers with Buddy Boeheim, Cole Swider, and Jimmy Boeheim leaving.  The team is likely to have to rely on some freshman to do some scoring, assuming no big acquisitions through the transfer portal. Is it realistic to expect freshmen to score?

Since the 2012-2013 season, there have been 31 scholarship freshman on the men's basketball team.  Nine were starters (29%), and eight scored 9+ a game (26%); six scored 10+ a game (19.4%).  Those eight were:

Tyler Ennis 12.9 ppg
Chris McCullough 9.3 ppg
Malachi Richardson 13.4 ppg
Tyler Lydon 10.1 ppg
Tyus Battle 11.3 ppg
Taurean Thompson 9.3 ppg
Oshae Brissett  14.9 ppg
Joe Girard 12.4 ppg

• Of course, really scoring totals are more a function of opportunity and necessity.  Even on really bad teams someone has to score, and if there are capable scorers already in place, freshman are not going to be called upon to play and/or score.  So take those numbers for what they are; just a reflection of what did happen, not what will happen.

While looking this up, probably the most similar situation to 2022-2023 was the 2017-2018 season.  That team lost four of its top five scorers (John Gillon, Tyler Lydon, Andrew White, Taurean Thompson), and the two bench players were weak scorers (Frank Howard and Paschal Chukwu).  Five incoming freshman (Matthew Moyer, Oshae Brissett, Marek Dolezaj, Bourama Sidibe, and Howard Washington).   That team struggled like heck to score, but played terrific grinding defense.  Moyer/Dolezaj and Brissett started, and Brissett turned in one of the best freshman scoring seasons for the Orange, but the team did lack scoring with only three guys who reliably scored: Battle, Howard, and Brissett.  The only new transfer on that team was Geno Thorpe, and he didn't contribute.

2022-2023 is not as barren as 2017-2018 in regards to returning players.  Two starters are returning, not just one (Joe Girard and Jesse Edwards).  There are four returning bench players not just two, and of those Benny Williams does have a very high upside.  There is also no returning player the caliber of Tyus Battle, so temper expectations with that in mind.