Where The Orange Stand

The overtime win against Georgetown yesterday was another classic Syracuse/Georgetown game, going down to the wire with a lot of dramatic action and heroic efforts. The win was crucial for the Orange stopping a slide that saw Syracuse losing six of their last seven games. While the win against the tumbling Hoyas is not as impressive as it would have been a month ago, it is still a big win.

Syracuse is now 19-7 for the season, 7-6 within the Big East conference with five games to go. The strong out of conference schedule and the success against that schedule is looming as extremely important for the Orange right now. But the NCAA selection committee looks at how you do in your last ten games, and that, with other factors, is going to become very important right now.

Syracuse is above .500 in the Big East, but they are 0-5 against the six teams ahead of them in the standings, and 7-1 against the nine teams below them. That pretty much says the Orange are situated in the conference rankings right where they belong. Being the 7th team from a conference is not an ideal situation to be in, though with the depth of the Big East, it is a good position right now. However, the last five games are going to be very important.

Syracuse is currently 2-5 in road games. Their last five games are against Villanova, @ St. Johns, Cincinnati, Rutgers, and @ Marquette. Two of those teams are ahead of Syracuse in the standings: Villanova and Marquette. Syracuse cannot afford to lose to any of the three teams below them: St. Johns, Cincinnati and Rutgers. If they won those three and lost to Villanova and Marquette, they would be 22-9 going into the Big East tournament, 10-8 in the conference, 5-5 in their last 10 games, and 3-6 on the road. I’d be afraid of those last two numbers, and I think it would require them to win at least a couple of games in the Big East tournament to show they are NCAA tourney worthy, enough to get them off that bubble. In this scenario, one and done, or one win and then out in the Big East tournament, could leave the Orange on the bubble… and I know from past history I do not want to be there.

However, a win at Marquette on March 7th would be huge, as it would be a quality road win against a top 20 team to close out the regular season, it would make them 4-5 on the road, and 6-4 in their last 10. That would put them in the NCAA tourney regardless of how they perform in the Big East tournament. Likewise a win against Villanova, instead of Marquette, would also be important and improve the resume greatly.

Winning the last five would be great for Syracuse, and it is well within their reach. That would take them to 24-7 going into the Big East tournament, 12-6 in the conference,7-3 in their last ten games, and 4-5 on the road. They are going to have to play some defense, get some offensive cohesion, and improve their teamwork.

The Georgetown game saw Johnny Flynn join the 1,000 point club for Syracuse, becoming the 51st player to reach that level. Paul Harris reached that mark earlier this year, now at 1,123 points, 43rd all time. Eric Devendorf is ten points from becoming the 20th player to reach 1,500 career points. The game also saw Arinze Onuaku pass Carmelo Anthony on the all time scoring list (though it took Arinze three seasons to accomplish what Melo did in one).

As reported in earlier blogs, Onuaku is toying with some Syracuse records. He is the all time worst free throw shooter in Syracuse history, and with his 33% shooting this year (33 of 99), he is securing that position. His career total is now 118 for 290, 40.7%, keeping him well ahead (or behind) of Terrence Roberts (48%). Onuaku is on the verge of shattering the single season free throw shooting record, with his 33% shooting. The previous mark, for someone with over 100 shots, is 42.1% by Terrence Roberts who went 56 of 133 in the 2005-2006 season.

On the positive side, Onuaku is still on pace to set the single season field goal accuracy. He is 127 of 188 from the field, at 67.6%, ahead of Roosevelt Bouie’s 65.4% in 1979-1980.

Other items of note: Devendorf is now 7th all time in three point field goals. Flynn is at 19th, and Andy Rautins is 10th all time.

Flynn is now 14th all time in assists. Devendorf is just behind him at 15th.

Let’s hope there is a lot to cheer for in the last five conference games this year.

9-0 and unstoppable Onuaku

Arinze Onuaku is off to terrific start to his junior campaign. He is averaging 13.3 points a game, with 7.8 rebounds, despite playing only 27 minutes a game (and typically not for foul trouble, but just to get some rest). However, those aren’t his impressive numbers. 79.4% is the number to look at. That is Onuaku’s field goal percentage for the season. When Onuaku gets the ball inside, he is virtually unstoppable, and for his last 17 attempts he has been, making each and every one of them (credit Brent Axeman for noting that one).

At Onuaku’s current pace he would shatter the Syracuse single season field goal percent record. The current record is 65.4% by Roosevelt Bouie in the 1979-1980 season, when he made 189 of 289 attempts. Onuaku’s effort is especially noteworthy because Syracuse has been playing some tough basketball teams this early season. They have not faced any dominant centers like they will in a few games this Big East season, but there are not too many players in the country with Onuaku’s build, so those types of matchups are going to be rare not matter who they play.

That’s not to suggest that Onuaku is Superman. His kryptonite is the free throw line, where he continues to challenge Terrence Roberts for the distinction of being the worst ever for Syracuse. However, I did question earlier this year why Syracuse was not feeding Onuaku the ball more often, instead relying on the three point shot or driving the lane from the perimeter. It would seem to me that you would want to feed Onuaku as much as you could, which should soften up a lot of defenses.

I know there have been some occasions where Onuaku has not played aggressively and has not worked to get open inside. Notably, he took some flak in the Cornell game for getting outhustled down low (though it we need to be fair and report that he was 5-5 from the floor that game). But there are a lot of moments in the game where Syracuse does not appear to be trying to work the ball down low. That comes under the responsibility of the point guard.

Let’s look at the numbers of two Syracuse players this season, both prorated to 40 minutes of playing time.

Player 1:

14.5 points, 5.8 assists, 2.6 turnovers, 2.6 steals, 32% from 3 point range, 70% FT pct.

Player 2:

21.5 points, 5.8 assists, 3.6 turnovers, 1.9 steals, 41% from 3 point range, 74% FT pct.

Which of those players is the point guard, and which is the shooting guard? It’s a little obvious if you’ve been watching Syracuse basketball this year; Jonny Flynn is player #2. A little less obvious is player #1 which is Andy Rautins. However, doesn’t it seem like player one has more of the stats of a point guard? Clearly a better turnover to assist ratio, and more steals, along with a lower scoring average.

I had mentioned earlier this year that I was concerned that Flynn was leading Syracuse is scoring every single game. Don’t get me wrong; Flynn is having an outstanding early season, and is a very special player. He has been making the clutch shots, and Syracuse is 9-0. But Flynn came to Syracuse with a reputation of being a strong playmaker, and I’m not seeing a player like that right now.

I remember the legendary Magic Johnson was always credited with sacrificing his own scoring to make sure his teammates scored. If Magic was on a fast break with an easy layup, he would always dish the ball off to a trailing teammate to reward his teammate for hustling down the court with him. I have not seen that selflessness from Flynn yet. I segued into this earlier by stating I did not think the team was getting the ball to Onuaku down low enough. And that responsibility falls on Flynn.

Flynn had an off shooting night against Long Beach State on Saturday. I have no problem with that; those nights occur. But Flynn ended up with only two assists. I would have expected my team’s point guard to have a big assist night, a big playmaking night in a game where he realized early he wasn’t shooting well. And he did not end up having that night.

Syracuse could go quite far this season, particularly with Flynn playing the way he has been playing. I am just of the belief that the primary job of the point guard is to elevate the play of all his teammates. It does bring concern to me that he is not developing that reputation right now in games that do not require him to score for Syracuse to win. There will be more than one game remaining this season where Syracuse will need Flynn to be the hero to win. Letting his teammates be the hero for some of the other games would pay big dividends down the stretch.

2-0, Many to Go

The Orangemen are off to a 2-0 start. Manhandling LeMoyne was expected, and Richmond was a good early season challenge. I think like a lot of fans, I would have hoped for an easier win; partly because it would have been easier to watch, but also because it would have been an indicator of how much better Syracuse was this season than last.

The expectation clearly would be that the Orange would be better this year. The team lost only one player from last year, 1st round pick Donte’ Greene. Losing the talent of a first round pick can hurt a team. But look at what the Orangemen gained for this season: an extra year of experience and maturity for Jonny Flynn, Paul Harris, Kris Ongenaet, Arinze Onuaku and Rick Jackson ; the healthy return of Andy Rautins and Eric Devendorf; the arrival of highly tauted freshmen Kris Joseph and Mookie Jones. That’s a lot of significant plusses versus the one minus. So without even playing a game, we could feel confident they were better than last year.
The team is better, but the schedule this year is significantly tougher too. The conference schedule is absurdly difficult, and the non-conference schedule is one that Dick Vitale would not complain about. So Syracuse is going to lose some games this year, and likely some non-conference games.

That is what made the win over Richmond so crucial. Syracuse cannot afford the bad losses this year, and a loss to Richmond, at home, would have been a bad loss . That does not mean that Richmond was not a difficult team to play; they were. Their motion offense can be difficult to handle defensively, and they had some guys who can shoot threes, and Atlantic 10 teams had beaten Syracuse three times in a row.

There were things I was happy to see in the Richmond game. Eric Devendorf played like the Devo we knew pre-injury. He played with emotion, he took and made some crucial shots, and he took over the game at the right moment and time. He also showed the typical Devo careless turnover (seven of them) and some shaky defense at times. His contributions on the court greatly exceeded his errors.

Jonny Flynn showed he can still score and drive the lane. He made some impressive three point shots early on. And 27 points is a good night, no matter who you play. Arinze Onuaku was a stud inside, making every shot with ease in the first half, and most in the second (though missing a few gimmes). Kris Joseph showed some flashes of talent in his time on the court, and Ongenaet provided his usual quiet but necessary rebounding.

However, as nice as all those positives were, there was nothing new… no signs of growth for the team. We’ve seen Devo, Flynn and Onuaku play that way before, routinely. This was a game the team likely would have lost last year, but with Devo and Rautins on the court, we had expected (at least I did) that the meltdowns so prevalent last year would be less likely this year. Now, it is only two games into the year, so there is not a lot to look at for growth; I am just saying that we have not seen any yet.

Syracuse settled for playing on the perimeter far too much, shades of last year. Onuaku was unstoppable inside, and yet Flynn stopped feeding him the ball with about seven minutes to go in the first half. Why?

Devo wore his emotions on his sleeve as he always has, and rose his level of intensity in the second half. But I did not feel it was that contagious to his teammates. I would like to see Onuaku get fired up some time. I realize he could serious injure someone if he were out of control, but how about a scowl or a shout now and then? Paul Harris decided to be ‘no show’ Paul for the Richmond game. He played Jekyll and Hyde last year with his intensity vacillating game to game, and he just wasn’t there that night.

All summer we kept wondering how coach Jim Boeheim was going to spread the playing time at the guard position. We all knew that Jonny Flynn was too tired last year having to play every minute of every game down the stretch. With Rautins and Devo back, Harris able to play the guard, and freshman Mookie Jones also able to play time there, Flynn was clearly going to get his break. Instead, Flynn played 39 of the 40 minutes. Now historically, Boeheim has always ridden his point guards; Sherman Douglas and Pearl Washington almost never left the game. But the constant theme last year was how tired Flynn was, so I expected a change.

Rautins and Devo both got their playing time, with 26 and 31 minutes respectively. Syracuse played a lot of three guard offense, with Rautins taking the forward defensive position. I’m sure we will see a lot of that this season.

Jonny Flynn is a decent free throw shooter, making 78% of his shots last season. But also similar to last season, Flynn missed the crucial free throws down the stretch. Not enough to cost Syracuse the game, but enough to allow Richmond to hang around and have a shot at it. The ball is going to be in Devo, Flynn and Rautin’s hands down the stretch; Flynn’s going to have to starting making those.

Rautins was very cold from the perimeter, going 0-5 from three point range. He was taking the three point shots from long distance, and his shots were consistently long. I’m confident he’ll start making them, but it would have been nice to have seen him make them now.
Syracuse has a very deep bench, and Boeheim only went eight players deep. Freshman Mookie Jones did not even play, and Rick Jackson played only nine minutes. Again, Boeheim almost always goes to a short bench in close games; I am just surprised the Jones did not get into the game in the first half.

Syracuse is lacking a strong scoring presence from the forward position. Harris can score, but he prefers to do it by having the ball in his possession and driving from the perimeter like a guard; Syracuse does not need another guy who can drive from the perimeter. Ongenaet only gets garbage shots. They need a guy who can slash to the hoop without the ball and get the feed, and I have not seen that yet. I’m hoping Kris Joseph will be that guy.

But hey, it is only two games. Syracuse is 2-0; they’ve done what they need to do at this point. The positives we expected were there. There is a lot to build upon and still a lot of potential for the team. I’m very confident the NCAA tournament is in their future, and the team will be a lot of fun to watch.

Let’s go Orange!

Milestones Revisited

The Orange have played 23 games this season, roughly ¾ of their regular season schedule of 31 games. Earlier this season, I had mentioned possible milestones for players this year. We can check in and see how the Orange players are doing. At this point the Orange seem certain to have at least one Big East tournament game, and to make either the NIT or NCAA tournaments. For our purposes here, we’ll assume they’ll have four post season games, giving them 35 for the year.

Donte’ Greene is leading the freshman field in scoring, with 422 points, and 18.3 points per game. His 422 points is already the 7th best Syracuse freshman total ever, six points behind Eric Devendorf’s freshman campaign. Greene is on pace for 642 points, which would put him in second, well ahead of Lawrence Moten’s 583 points, but also well behind Carmelo Anthony’s 778 pts.

Jonny Flynn has 350 points, 15.2 ppg, to put him 8th on the all time list (right behind Greene, and 78 behind Devendorf. Flynn is on pace for 532 points, which would place him fourth on the list, ahead of Billy Owens’ 494 points, and trailing Moten.

Greene’s 18.3 points per game is currently the second best freshman average, barely ahead of Moten’s 18.2 points, and trailing Anthony’s 22.2 ppg. Greene would need to score at a pace of about 29.6 ppg in order to bring his average up to Anthony’s so that record seems safe.

Flynn’s 15.2 points per game is currently the fourth best freshman average, well behind Moten’s 18.2 ppg, and solidly ahead of Pearl Washington’s 14.4 ppg. Flynn seems likely to finish at 4th.

Flynn has 113 assists on the season, averaging 4.9 per game. He is currently seventh on the all time freshman list, trailing Owens by 6. Flynn is on pace for 171 assists, which would allow him to finish third, behind Jason Hart’s 184 and Pearl's 199. Flynn would need to increase his pace to 7.25 assists per game to challenge the Pearl’s record. Considering that Flynn’s pace has been decreasing as the season progresses, this is unlikely.

Greene has an outside shot at getting into the top 10 freshman assists. He has 43 on the season, on pace for 65. He would need 77 to catch Anthony for tenth on the list, meaning he would need to average 2.8 per game down the stretch. It is possible, though unlikely, that the Orange’s top scorer would start dishing out the ball more.

Greene currently has 172 rebounds, 20 behind Moten’s 192 for tenth place. He is on pace for 262 rebounds, which would put him at fourth, one behind Owens 263 for third, and six ahead of Dale Shackleford for fifth. Third through sixth on the list is tight, so Greene will likely fall in that range when the season is done; he is not going to catch Derrick Coleman’s 333 for third, unless he becomes extremely committed to rebounding and the Orange play more than four post season games.

Paul Harris has 202 rebounds after 23 games, and on pace for 307. For his career he now has 450 rebounds, which is good for 42nd on the all time Syracuse rebounding list. Harris is on pace to finish the season with 555 career rebounds, which would place him 32nd on the all time list. Harris is well off of Coleman’s pace as DC has 717 rebounds after his sophomore season. If Harris finishes the season with 307, that would be the fifteenth best season in school history, and the second best sophomore season (Coleman had 384).

Arinze Onuaku has 190 rebounds this season, 270 for his career. He is currently 64th all time, and looks like he will finish the season with about 369 career rebounds, which would place him around 50th.

Greene is challenging the freshman record for three point field goal percentage. Devendorf holds the record at 37.593% (50-133); Greene is currently at 37.575% (62-165), barely trailing Devo. This record is Greene’s for the taking, though Greene has been struggling in Big East competition to get clean shots from that range.

Greene has 62 three point field goals this season, and is on pace for 94. The freshman record is 85 by Gerry McNamara, the school record is 107 by McNamara. 94 would put Greene fifth on the all time single season list. His current 62 is the 20th best ever.

Rick Jackson is currently shooting 57.6% from the floor (42 of 73). If he gets at least 27 more shots and keeps that pace he’ll pass Louis Orr for the best freshman field goal percentage (56.5%). Jackson is on pace for 111 shots, so he should get enough shots; hopefully he keeps making them at this record percentage.

The best single season field goal percentage for any Syracuse player is 65.4% by Roosevelt Bouie in 1979-1980. Onuaku is currently well ahead of that at 67.2% (123 of 183). The competition continues to get tougher, and Onuaku is facing more and more double teams down low, though that has more of an effect of not letting him get shots, as opposed to reducing his shooting percentage.

Coach Jim Boeheim has 764 career wins; he is in a battle with Jim Calhoun for 10th all time. Boeheim has a conference record 297 Big East wins; he needs three more to hit 300. Syracuse has eight conference games left, though the schedule is grueling down the stretch. It seems like that Syracuse will get the three wins Boeheim needs, though it could be tough, especially with the seven man lineup the Orange have.

When Terrence Roberts graduated last season, I had hoped there would not be any player to challenge the records for worst free throw shooters. Unfortunately Onuaku wants to give it a shot. Roberts shot 56 of 133 from the charity stripe his junior year to go 42.1%. Onuaku is currently at a 45.7% clip, with 53 of 116. It would seem Onuaku will not get the record, but he is in the neighborhood. Onuaku does not yet have the required 200 career attempts, but his current pace will allow him to break Roberts' career record of 48.0%. Onuaku is currently 65 for 143 for his career, or 45.5%. As I've stated before, if you are the worst free through shooter at a school with a legacy of poor free throw shooters, you are pretty poor.

Fast Start

The Orange are off to a nice 2-0 start in the Big East with wins over St. Johns and South Florida. These were games that Syracuse was expected to win, but no win is easy within conference play.

A solid effort from all five starters today, and a good mix of zone defense and man-to-man defense from the team. Free throw shooting as a unit continues to scare me, though the primary ball handlers Flynn and Greene have been doing well. Some balanced scoring with 8 guys in double digit scoring in two games is another positive sign, though with a shallow bench and a high scoring style of play, the starters are going to get plenty of opportunities to score.

Donte’ Greene is off to a fast start scoring in conference play with 43 points. 8 fouls in 66 minutes of play has me concerned (a 12 fouls in his last 94 minutes), along with 7 turnovers. On a team short on reserves, Syracuse needs Greene on the court as much as possible.

Arinze Onuaku has been a very pleasant surprise in the early going of conference play. 18 of 25 from the floor for 39 points, and 25 rebounds. Very nice start big guy. Syracuse has not had a dominant big center since Etan Thomas in 1999-2000.

Paul Harris has shown a nice mix of skills, with 7 assists in the St. Johns game, and 13 rebounds and 20 points in the South Florida game.

Jonny Flynn has 13 assists and 5 turnovers in the first two games. A very strong start for the freshman point guard. His backcourt mate Scoops Jardine looks like he is getting adjusted to his starting role and is providing some excellent support. 12 assists and 1 turnover in his first two Big East games; that is outstanding. Throw in nine rebounds and five steals, and Jardine is becoming a huge asset to the Orange.

The bench, all two of them, are struggling. Rick Jackson is struggling to get into the offensive flow. He showed tremendous ability earlier in the season, so a little more seasoning here should help. Kris Ongenet seems overwhelmed at his point by the more rugged play in the Big East. In his first 18 minutes of conference play he has picked up 8 personal fouls (earning a disqualification in the South Florida game with 5 fouls in 12 minutes), and he has only 1 rebound.

There is going to become a moment in the Big East season where Jackson and Ongenet are going to be counted on for some valuable productive minutes, so it is important for Syracuse to get these two guys going. Greene is walking a fine line with his foul trouble right now, and sooner or later, every player gets into some foul trouble.

It is only two games, and games against opponents that Syracuse should have beaten. It is however pleasing to see the Orange have done what they should have done; that does not always happen. Their first conference road game is at Cincinnati this Wednesday. This is another game the Orange should win, but you can ask Louisville how that goes. The Cardinals lost at home to Cincinnati in the Big East opener on January 1st, 58-57. So this will be another good test for the young Orangemen.

Go Orange!