Manning & Brady

A little divergence from Syracuse basketball for the next day or so.

Congratulations to Peyton Manning and the Syracuse Four (Marvin Harrison, Dwight Freeney, Josh Thomas and Ryan LaCasse) for making the Super Bowl. I had meant to write this article prior to the Colts beating the Pats, but the content is still relevant.

From my perspective, there is a difference between the statement “which player had a greater career” and “which was the greater player”? The former focuses on what was accomplished, and latter on who was the best. They could be the same, but just as often, it could be different answers.

There is no doubt that at this point, Tom Brady has had a greater career than Peyton Manning. Brady has won three Super Bowls, and Manning none. They play the game to win, and Brady clearly accomplished more. However, the Super Bowl Championships does not mean that Brady is the better quarterback, they guy that you want leading your team over all others. Sure it's evidence to support that position, strong evidence, but it’s not the definitive evidence that many fans issue.

I'll start this by saying I think Tom Brady is a great quarterback. Possibly the best of our era; definitely one of the best. Amazing under pressure; an outstanding leader and an uncanny knack to make the big play at the right time. Like most fans out there, I also think that Bill Belicheck is a great coach, one of the best defensive minds out there. And I think Adam Vinatieri is a great kicker.

And that’s where I have an issue with pointing at championships as the definitive measure of how great a player is. Team sports are won by teams, not by individuals. It is a collective triumph, a collective failure. If all the players don’t work together, the big stars aren’t in a position to win the game when it matters. The big stars have to come through when it matters, but they also have to be given that opportunity.

Let’s follow the assumption that Belicheck is as great a defensive coach as we credit him to be. When the Patriots beat the Colts in past seasons in the playoffs, wasn’t it more of an issue of Belicheck vs Manning, not Brady vs Manning? I’ve never seen Tom Brady intercept a Manning pass, or sack Manning, or force Manning into a rushed pass. So Manning struggled against the greatest defensive minded coach of our era; and he looked bad doing it. How many times in his career has Tom Brady faced a Bill Belicheck defense? Zero. How would Mr. Brady do against a Bill Belicheck defense? I doubt we’ll ever know the answer to that question. For you devout Patriot fans, what would the answer be? I’m curious.

Adam Vinatieri is considered the greatest clutch kicker of our generation, if not of all time. He earned the reputation by repeatedly proving himself in clutch situations in January games. It begs the question then: if the Patriots had such a great defensive team, lead by the greatest defensive minded coach of our era, and the best quarterback of our era, how come they often had to find themselves in a position for their field goal kicker to win them games?

If they had a lesser kicker, the assumption is they would have lost those games (because the implication is that Vinatieri is a great kicker because he made the clutch kicks that most other kickers wouldn’t have made… otherwise, what was so great about it?) Would Brady have been any lesser of a quarterback because a lesser kicker had missed the field goal, and thus cost the Pats the titles? That would seem absurd, right? Yet, isn’t that really the argument people are making?

I think back to the great Miami / Boston College football game where Doug Flutie won the shootout with the Hail Mary at the end. Was Bernie Kosar any less of a quarterback because Flutie made that pass, forcing Kosar to lose? Would Flutie have been any less of a quarterback if Phelan dropped the ball in the endzone?

It is fair to say that Brady succeeded in the opportunities he was given, where historically Manning came up short. Very relevant arguments that need to brought into the discussion; but not the definitive answer. It is a team game. It takes 53 guys to win. 53 to lose.

My intent here is not to choose one of these quarterbacks over the other. I'm not trying to make an argument for one or for the other. I just want to challenge the thinking of many of you out there; I think falling back on who won more is the easy way out, and leads to biased results. But I think it would be gutless of me to write an article, and not state some conclusion.

I would take either guy to quarterback my team, and be very happy with it. I just have a sense that Peyton Manning does more to help a team win, that he is more important to the success of the Colts than Brady is to the success of the Patriots. I also think Manning is more instrumental in the Colt losses than Brady is in the Patriot losses. In my opinion, the Colts have been more dependent on Manning playing well than the Pats on Brady.

For that reason, I’ll take Mr. Manning. But Mr. Brady can still play for me any day!

Welcome Back Terrence

Welcome back to earth Terrence Roberts. After shooting like Gerry McNamara, Richie Cornwall, and Greg Kohls from the free throw line over the previous six games (14 of 17), TRob came back to his roots and shot an abyssmal 1-9 from the free throw line in Syracuse's 64-60 loss to St. Johns. That drops Roberts to 34-74 for the season (45.9%) and 148-313 for his career (47.3%).

What was really amazing was the Roberts' form looked solid during his stretch when he was making the shots. Agains the Red Storm he looked horrendous. Absolutely terrible.

He did keep up with his solid play for the first ten minutes of the game, almost single handedly carrying the team. Unfortunately the big guy disappeared after that, though he did get his double-double.

He's now taken 4 three point shots this year, and of course has missed them all. Terrence, there's a reason you're open at the arc; you're 5-23 for your career from that range. Egads. Only thing worse than seeing TRob square up for a three is seeing Paul Harris do the same.

Anyhow the Orange played great against Villanova, perhaps the best team effort I've seen in a couple of years. They struggled against Cincinnati but showed a lot of poise when it mattered. The whole team looked terrible against St. Johns. The Red Storm simply looked awful, and yet the Orange seemed determined to play worse than the Johnnies.

I have hope the team can achieve some success on this season, but Sunday was not one of those times.

Syracuse 75, Villanova 64

Jim Boeheim’s been saying for a couple of seasons that the Orangemen will only be as good as this year’s senior class takes them. Well, perhaps for the first time, the seniors put together an outstanding effort against a quality team in a Big East game, beating Villanova 75-64 on Rony Seikaly Day at the Dome.

Demetris Nichols had an outstanding first half of the game. His confidence seemed high, and for at least one game, he shook his career long struggle in Big East play to look like a legit star player. Nichols had one of those games where he seemed to make every shot, and even when he took a couple ill-advised shots, he still made the basket. Five of six from three point range is a very nice day. Special congrats to Nichols who joined the Syracuse 1000 point club today (always nice to get a personal accolade on a day your team wins).

Nichols was somewhat quiet the second half, but there really was no need for more heroic efforts from him as the Orangemen were pretty comfortable in the lead most the time. It seemed they solved their season long problem of starting the second half slow, as they came out firing, and quickly put Nova away to start the half. I hope that’s a trend we see continue.

Darryl Watkins had a silent but outstanding game, basically doing everything required of him. Some outstanding defense, and making every basket he tried (four for four). He could have rebounded more, but his teammates picked that up.

The big man on the day was Terrence Roberts, and what a game he had. 17 points and 14 rebounds for the big man. And that only tells part of the story. For the first time in a long while he seemed to do a lot of the little things right. He was handling the ball relatively well, made some nice interior passes and kick outs, and generally making the right play (he took an ill advised three point shot with plenty of time left on the clock; that’s a shot TRob should not ever take, the Rutgers game from last year the rare exception).

The most amazing thing about Roberts has been his free throw shooting transformation the past few weeks. Roberts, as I’ve well documented before, is statistically the worst free throw shooter in Syracuse history. He went 5-5 this afternoon, and 1-1 against Marquette the other night. He’s now gone 11-12 from the line in the last five games he’s played. Roberts is now 30-60 from the free throw line this year, up to 50%, and he’s raised his career record to 144-299, or 48.1%. How does a player who is so bad at the free throw line for 3 ½ years suddenly turn into Gerry McNamara at the line? Hypnosis? Has his knee injury affected his stroke in a positive way? Pure luck?

Eric Devendorf did not do much scoring today, but his playmaking was nice. He broke down Nova’s defense well, and didn’t seem to force too many bad plays, and ended up with seven assists. Down the stretch he did force some shots, but I think having him run the clock down and drive to the hoop when we have a lead is a smart play for Syracuse, and one where the result is a forced shot is an acceptible risk. More often than not Devo will get fouled or make the basket, and the key at that point of the game is to eat clock.

Andy Rautins filled his role nicely on the three point play, making three of six, and scoring 11 points in 21 minutes. Overall, if the Orange play this way on a regular basis, their going to win a lot of big games. I think the lack of size from Villanova helped Syracuse, especially on the interior passing, and that may not be an advantage the Orange will always have. But you can’t criticize the Orange for taking advantage of a mismatch situation; if the passes are there, take them!

Syracuse ran the fast break well today, and go the outlet passes to the right players quickly. The switch to man-to-man seemed to make a difference today. I think Villanova’s personnel had a lot to do with that. Watkins didn’t need to worry too much about the play down low, and that helped everyone rotate well.

I only have a few negative observations for the game. 20 turnovers is far too many; this team just seems to have a set number of sloppy plays in them, regardless of who they are playing. Nova had only 12 turnovers; it would be nice to see the Orange have forced more out of the Wildcats. Then again, when you have a large lead, at home, you’re going to play more conservative on defense, and make the other team force the action.

Josh Wright seemed to break the press well, and I think the Wildcats probably should have abandoned it. It’s likely a staple of their game, so that would be unlikely, but it seemed ineffective against the Orange. Wright did make some poor decisions in the second half, and Boeheim pulled him for most of the stretch play. I’m not sure if Boeheim was unhappy with Wright’s play and wanted to send him a message, or if it simply was giving Wright an extended rest.

I know a lot of fans love Paul Harris. He hustles on every play, and has some amazing physical talents. But he looked very spastic on the court today, like he was totally lost on the court. Offensively he doesn’t seem to be adding anything at all to the team, and on defense when they were in the man-to-man defense, he seemed to stray from his man a few too many times (I don’t know if that was by design or not). I do love watching him grab a defensive rebound; he takes off down the court immediately and pushes the action. Hopefully Harris is a coachable player and the coaching staff is able to harness and mold that talent.

Overall, great job Orange! These are the types of games that are very enjoyable to watch.

RY

An Undeniable Pattern

Demetris Nichols has been an enigma to me for the past three years. He physically looks like an NBA caliber player, has the athletic grace and a 6’8” frame. He’s reported to be an excellent perimeter shooter, which I’ve seen glimpses of. Each fall he gives us a sneak peak of how good I think he should be.

As teams shift from non-conference games to their conference schedule, you can expect to see some drop in a player’s individual performance. Tougher games are played on a regular basis during conference play, and there’s more wear and tear on the players. Nichols, however, seems to take that to the extreme.

Over his combined sophomore and junior seasons, in 34 non-conference games, Nichols has averaged 10.5 points per game, 4.7 rebounds, and 1.1 assists. During the same time period in 28 Big East games, Nichols averaged 7.7 points per game, 3.6 rebounds, and 1.0 assists. Over a 27% decrease in total points, and a 25% decrease in rebounds are somewhat larger than what you might expect to see. But its probably not too much outside the norm in drop off.

However, it is the disappearance of his shooting touch in Big East play that is absolutely mind boggling. Over his sophomore and junior seasons, in non-conference games, Nichols shot 45.3% from the floor, 38.5% from the 3 point range and 54.2% from the two point range. Those are pretty good numbers.

In Big East play over the same time period, Nichols shot 37.2% from the floor, 26.7% from three point range and 47.3% from two point range. The first two numbers are terrible. More amazing though, is that his three point shooting drops 11.8 percentage points. That his a huge difference. To give you some perspective on the three point field goal shooting change, in 2005-06 Gerry McNamara shot 33.9% in non-conference and 32.8% in Big East play, Eric Devendorf shot 38.7% in non-conference and 36.6% in Big East play.

So what to attribute Nichols drop in shooting each year? Fatigue? A style of play that does not suit him? More aggressive defenses? Psychology? Winter blues?

More surprisingly is the undefended shot, the free throw. Over the last two seasons, Nichols shot 71.0% from the free throw line in non-conference games. In Big East play, that plummeted to 61.9%. A drop of almost 10 percentage points on uncontested shots!

It had looked like 2006-07 was going to be different. Nichols was playing so well in the non-conference games. He averaged 19.8 points a game, shot a blistering 48.8% from three point range, and a McNamara like 89.4% from the free throw line. In December, he was peaking with 6 straight games with 20+ points, averaging 25.8 ppg during that stretch, including an impressive 31 points against Drexel on December 19th.

Nichols looked extremely confident in play, was making all the right moves. I wasn’t even concerned after the first Big East game against the Pitt Panthers. Pitt has outstanding defense, and while Nichols shot wasn’t falling, he still showed a lot of solid play on the court, including those special nuances you like to see your superstars make.

But now we’re three games into the Big East season. Yes, there’s still a long ways to go, but after three games, Nichols Big East stats are looking awfully familiar. He’s shooting 33.3% from the floor, 25.0% from three point range, and his free throw shooting once again dropped to 62.5%. Those are huge drops.

It’s only three games; statistically speaking that means nothing. I keep telling myself that. Yet, it’s following the Nichols career trend. And when you keep seeing a pattern repeat itself, you’re foolish to ignore it. I can’t explain why Nichols struggles in Big East play. I know its not all about the defense, because a large drop in free throw shooting isn’t caused by defense (fatigue plays into that, and strong defense can lead to fatigue, but not to that extreme).

Demetris, I haven’t given up on you yet. I still think you can be a star for Syracuse. Prove your historical numbers wrong, prove this analysis wrong, and show us you’re the play I had always hoped you would be. It was nice to get another glimpse in autumn, but while being Mr. October is great for baseball, its not what we want in basketball.

RY

Roberts Free Throw Quest

Terrence Roberts missed the St. Bonaventure and Hofstra games with his knee injury, and then didn’t get an opportunity at the line versus Pitt, so he’s been on hold with his quest for free throw shooting history.

An ironic twist occurred along the way against Marquette. The Orange as a team had a bad night at the charity stripe. The team was 0-6 from the line in the first half, on their way to a 21-35 night from the line. The game entered the final minute with the Orange having a slight lead. Marquette did the smart thing and fouled Roberts rather than let him score. And what did Roberts do? Well, the owner of a career 46.7% free throw shooting percent, calmly made both of his free throw shooting to basically seal the win for Syracuse.

And while I don’t expect the trend to last, Roberts has gone 5-6, 83% from the line in the last three games he’s played. Not quite Gerry McNamara numbers, but that would put him in the Eric Devendorf class. Of course six free throw attempts statistically means nothing… but Roberts easily could have been 0-6.

So for the season, TRob is up to 24-54 from the free throw line (44.4%), and his career percentage is skyrocketing (well, not quite) to 138 of 293, or 47.1%.

As a side note, the rapid improvement of Darryl Watkins at the free throw line has simply been amazing this year. Watkins was a career 48.2% free throw shooter entering this season. Yet, he has managed to go 35 of 50 for 70% for this season, and even improved to 8 of 12 for 75% in his first two Big East games. Mookie, my hat is off to you, and may you continue shooting it well from the free zone.

RY

BCS - No Time for Playoffs

I looked at my calendar this morning and saw that today is January 8th, 2007. A full seven days after New Years day, the day traditionally the major bowl games were played on. And what is so significant about today's date? Well, the BCS is playing its mythical national championship game tonight.

One full week after major bowl games were historically played. One of the biggest arguments that the NCAA and respective member universities used to make was that they couldn't have a playoff system because it would disrupt the studies of the student athletes with games running into the next semester.

Interestingly enough, they could have played semi-final games on New Years Day, giving a traditional 7 day gap between games, tonight's national championship game would still have been on the same date, with the same impact on the student's academic schedule.

That still would have left Boise State out in the cold; they weren't on anyone's top 4 list. Those four by consensus would've been Ohio State, Michigan, Florida and USC. I had mentioned my own solution a few weeks back, and my solution wouldn't have had a game playing on January 8th. And Boise State would've had a shot in that scenario.

If Ohio State wins tonight, I would concede them the national championship... two undefeated teams, one a tougher schedule. However, if OSU were to lose this game... I'm not conceding it to a one loss Florida team that struggled against FSU down the stretch.

Pre-Conference Schedule Records

The pre-conference schedule is done for Syracuse this year, with the Big East season starting Thursday night for the Orange. I’m sure a lot of Orange fans such as myself are glad it’s done; it has not been a start to a season that we’re accustomed to from Jim Boeheim’s squads.

I went back to determine how Boeheim’s teams have done in previous seasons in the “pre-conference” games; I’ve defined a pre-conference game as any non-conference game that occurs before the start of the Big East season plus any non-conference games that occurred in the first week of the Big East season; I excluded the first year of Big East play where there were only 6 Big East games for the Orangemen. Including this year, Syracuse is 260-27 over 27 seasons in pre-conference games. That’s a winning percentage of 90.6%.

Here’s the breakdown by year.

A few things to note. From the 1984-85 season to the 1993-94 season, Syracuse was an amazing 94-2 in the preseason games. I don’t care who you’re playing; that’s great. During that time frame they played in the Big East / ACC Challenge, along with some other tournaments, so not all the games were “creampuffs”. The only two losses during that time frame where to North Carolina and Arizona, both in the 1987 Great Alaska Shootout.

Even more amazing, from the 1988-89 season to 1993-94, the Orangemen didn’t lose a single pre-conference game, going 57-0. That includes memorable win over Indiana in 1988, Missouri in 1988, Duke in the 1989 ACC/Big East Challenge, Indiana & Iowa State in the 1990 Maui Classic, NC State in the 1990 ACC/Big East Challenge, Florida State in 1991, Tennessee in 1992 and 1993, and Arizona in 1994. So for those critics of Jim Boeheim, please review that list again.

In the 27 seasons of Big East play, Syracuse has only twice lost more than 2 games in the pre-conference schedule. In 1996-97, they went 8-4. That team would end up 19-13 overall, 9-9 in the Big East, and would lose in the first round of the NIT. Not one of the better Boeheim teams.

The other team is this year’s squad, at 11-3 as previously mentioned. I don’t know what that means, but not a good sign. The pre-conference schedule this year has had several setbacks to slow down the team’s progress. Darryl Watkins broke his nose, Terrence Roberts hurt his knee, several players missed games due to viral illness, and Eric Devondorf struggled through some off the court personal tragedies. So the team really hasn’t had too much time to be focused and cohesive. Unfortunately, the Big East season is now here, so they’ll have to put it all together in the big games.

Speaking of the “big games”; detractors of Coach Boeheim like to point out to his ‘cream puff’ schedule for all his wins. As pointed out, he is 260-27 in his pre-conference games, however as I’ve also mentioned, some of those were against some very good squads. Boeheim’s teams were 366-208 in all remaining games during that 27 year period: those would be Big East games, non-conference games in mid-season (typically a solid major conference team), Big East tournament games, and NCAA & NIT games. Boeheim’s squads win 64% of those games too. That’s a pretty good winning percentage against quality teams, almost 2/3rds.

Boeheim has a pretty good recipe: basically win all the games he’s supposed to win, and then win 2/3 of the tough games. There are always bumps in the road; nobody wins them all. But he wins most of them.

RY