Sunday, November 07, 2010

Freshman Centers on the Hill

Freshman have been eligible to play NCAA Division I basketball since the 1973-1974 season. The first freshman center to start for Syracuse was in Coach Jim Boeheim’s first season 1976-1977. It was a notable freshman center with Roosevelt Bouie starting all 30 games that season, and Syracuse running to a remarkable 26-4 record, before bowing out of the NCAA tournament in the 2nd round.

In the Boeheim era, there have been six freshman who were the starting centers the majority of their first year on the Hill. In chronological order they are Bouie, Andre Hawkins, Rony Seikaly, Otis Hill, Jeremy McNeil and Craig Forth. Fab Melo looks to be number seven on that list.

The results for those first year freshman centers is mixed. All have been unpolished offensive players, to a variety of different degrees. Some were strong defensive presences their first season with their shot block ability, while others looked to plug a hole.

Bouie was by far the best freshman center at Syracuse, and at 6’11” he was highly recognizable on the court. Although he was not a solid offensive player, he could run the court and score inside, making 54% of his shots. He was not adept at drawing fouls that season, getting to the line only 55 times, but he made a remarkable 84% of his attempts (remarkable because he would be a career 66% free throw shooter). Bouie would struggle with fouls all four years at Syracuse, but he managed to play 25 minutes a game his freshman year, and had a respectable 10.9 ppg and 8.1 rpg. His big difference on the court was his 91 blocked shots, which set a defensive tone for the Orangemen, on their way to a 26-4 record.

Andre Hawkins would be the next freshman center at Syracuse. At 6’6”, 240 lbs, Hawkins was counted on to plug the hole in the middle resulting from the graduation of Danny Schayes. Hawkins was a bruiser inside, but he had limited offensive skills, and with no height was not much of a defensive threat. Hawkins would make 62% of his limited shots, for a 5.6 ppg average, and had only 3.9 rpg. Hawk struggled with fouls all season, and the Orangemen struggled to their worst season under Coach Boeheim at 16-13.

Rony Seikaly came onto the scene in 1984-1985, and at 6’10”, 235 lbs, he made his defensive presence know immediately. Seikaly would have 59 blocked shots his freshman year, score 8.1 ppg, and pull down 6.4 rpg. His offensive skills were limited to a tomahawk dunk, and he made about 54% of his shot attempts. Seikaly did redshirt his true freshman year, so he had one season of practice under his belt when he did start. He struggled with fouls, being disqualified from 11 of the 31 games he would play, averaging 25 minutes per game. Seikaly was important enough to the squad that his presence moved senior Andre Hawkins from center to power forward. Syracuse would finish 22-9 and go to the NCAA tournament.

Otis Hill was the next freshman center in 1993-1994. Hill was built like Hawkins, though a little bit bigger at 6’8”, 235 lbs. Hill was very foul prone, fouling out of 10 games, and averaging 24 minutes per game. When he did play, he managed 7.9 ppg, along with 5.6 rpg, and had 42 blocked shots. Hill was a bruiser inside, but also had some passing skills with 36 assists. He did beat out sophomore J.B. Reafsnyder for the starting position. Syracuse would go 23-7 that season; it didn’t hurt that the Orangemen had the talented Lawrence Moten and John Wallace on the squad.

Next was Jeremy McNeil in 2000-2001. McNeil was probably the least skilled offensive player of the six mentioned, with all of his shots being dunk attempts or put-backs near the hoop. He would make 65% of his shots from the close proximity. McNeil at 6’8”, 257 lbs, loved to block shots, and was extremely foul prone while trying to do that. He would end up with 65 blocked shots, but also play only 16 minutes a game with 103 fouls and 10 disqualifications. McNeil would average only 2.5 ppg along with 3.2 rpg, and junior Billy Celuck spent a lot of time relieving him.

Craig Forth would arrive on the scene the next season (2001-2002) and would replace McNeil as the starting center. Forth, at 7’, was a completely different style of player from McNeil. Forth was a very passive natured player, whereas McNeil was ultra-aggressive. Forth was good at passing the ball (41 assists), and unlike most of the freshman centers for Syracuse, did not mind stepping away from the hoop (he made only 44% of his field goal attempts). Forth was adept at using his wide body to fill up the middle of the zone, and box out apposing offensive players, which made him far more attractive to Coach Jim Boeheim and his zone defense. Forth would average only 4.6 ppg, along with 4.5 rpg, as Syracuse went 23-13 and lost in the NIT Final Four.

There were some other notable freshman centers. Danny Schayes, in 1977-1978, was a decent offensive player in terms of basic skills. He unfortunately had to sit behind sophomore Roosevelt Bouie. Schayes would average 4.7 ppg and 4.0 rpg that year.

Richie Manning was a decent freshman player in 1988-1989, who may have started for a lot of teams. But he entered an extremely talented squad that saw junior All-American Derrick Coleman shift to center so that freshman sensation Billy Owens could make the starting lineup. There were not too many minutes for Manning to pick up, but in the 10 minutes a game he go, he did average 3.4 ppg and 1.8 rpg. Manning, at 6’11”, 253 lbs, was a solid offensive player, who needed more work on the defensive end of the court. Despite playing only 10 minutes a game, he picked up 61 fouls, or one every 5.7 minutes of play.

Etan Thomas is the other freshman center of note. Thomas sat behind senior Otis Hill and sophomore Elvir Ovcina, yet due to injuries on the team, and his own improved play, he would start 12 games and average 16 minutes a game. Thomas was an excellent shot blocker getting 48 blocks in his limited playing time, and scoring 5.7 ppg with 4.2 rpg. The team would struggle going 19-13, and went 8-4 in the 12 games he started.

2010-2011 has Syracuse looking at starting 7’ freshman phenom Fab Melo. DaShonte Riley may have fought him for that position originally, but with Riley’s injury, it looks like Melo will be the seventh freshman center for Syracuse. Like all the other freshman centers, he is a raw offensive talent, with a lot of defensive potential. Like Bouie, Seikaly and McNeil, he will be counted on at times to alter a game with his shot blocking skills. Melo is probably the most highly touted center coming to Syracuse since Roosevelt Bouie, which puts him in very good company. Then again, there is a lot for a freshman to learn.

Syracuse did very well with Bouie at center, but he is the exception. The other teams with freshman centers have been average Syracuse NCAA caliber squads, to NIT quality squads. Freshman basketball players have a lot to learn, and centers are usually far less polished than guards and forwards. Their size does allow them to make some immediate contributions, but history also tells us that they struggle to stay on the court because of a tendency to be in foul trouble. On a Syracuse team that will not have a lot of depth at center, that could be bad news. Senior Rick Jackson will surely move from his forward positions at times and play center giving Melo a breather, as will fellow freshman Baye Moussa Keita.

I am hoping Melo is the next Bouie. Even a Seikaly level season would be good for this squad which will have talent and experience in other positions. It is tough to tell how good Melo will be. As many of you know, I am not one to jump on the recruiting hype machine, rather waiting to see what develops. I am eager to see how it all plays out.

Thursday, October 28, 2010

What to Expect in 2010-2011?

The 2010-2011 season is almost upon us, and as is the life in collegiate basketball, the churn of the team continues. Last season was a magical ride, that ultimately ended too early, but had the Orange running at the top echelon of collegiate hoops for the bulk of the competitive season.

Last season was a surprise, and many factors came together to make the team one of the strongest in Syracuse basketball history.

1) The emergence of Wes Johnson as a top tier NCAA basketball player. Coach Jim Boeheim was telling everyone how good Johnson was in practice in 2009-2010, and how good he thought he would be. Yet no one wanted to believe the Hall of Fame coach, despite Boeheim having a long history of understating how good the new players were. Johnson ended up being better than I believe Boeheim even believed he could be.

2) The re-emergence of the shutdown zone defense, something that was not seen operating in its full beauty since the 2002-2003 season. The improvement in the zone defense itself should not have been a surprise as the change in personnel alone signaled an improvement would occur in the zone. Eric Devendorf never pretended to play defense, and Paul Harris never understood the nuances of playing zone defense. Jonny Flynn, as talented as he is, was more suited for man-to-man defense, and undersized for the top of the key in the zone defense. Those three were switched out for a 6’4” Brandon Triche at the top of the key, 6’5” Andy Rautins who was a master of zone defense, and 6’7” Wes Johnson whose natural athleticism and understanding of the game allowed him to fill that back end of the zone well. Rick Jackson and Arinze Onuaku were both a year older and more mature, and the extra year of playing in the Boeheim zone only benefited them. So we knew the zone would be better; I don’t we think could have anticipated that it would have been a phenomenal defense. That was the surprise.

3) A selfless team led by two selfless players in Rautins and Johnson. The 2009-2010 team made the extra pass, played a style of basketball the rewarded teammates for hustling down the court. The team moved the ball well around the perimeter and inside-out, resulting in some outstanding interior shooting by Jackson and Onuaku, and some excellent perimeter shooting by Rautins, Johnson, and Triche.

4) Experience, experience, experience. Syracuse did have three new starters in the squad in 2009-2010, but Rautins was a fifth year senior, and Johnson a fourth year junior, both with plenty of collegiate experience. Jackson was in this third year of the program, and Onuaku in this fifth. Scoop Jardine came off the bench as a third year sophomore. Kris Joseph was in his second season as a reserve with plenty of experience his freshman year, leaving only Brandon Triche as the inexperienced player. This team had a lot of experience, particularly in the correct positions.

5) An easier schedule in 2009-2010 than in 2008-2009. Now don’t get me wrong; last season was a very difficult season, and Syracuse was outstanding in playing that season. Last year they played 10 games versus top 25 teams, and the Orange went 8-2, including 6-0 versus top 10 teams. The only losses to top 25 teams occurred when Arinze Onuaku was no longer effectively in the squad. In 2008-2009, they played 15 games versus top 25 teams; that is an absurb number, and the Orange went a respectable 7-8. They played 4 games against top 5 teams, going 1-3.

Clearly, a lot of things went well for the Orange last season. Addition by subtraction. Maturation/improvement from all the key players; that doesn’t always happen. I team that bought into the ‘team concept’ and played outstanding team defense.

The coaching staff is back, and that constant had led to the ongoing success in the Boeheim era. The single concept of Jim Boeheim being there every year is absolutely vital for the program’s continued success. Keeping the key assistants in Mike Hopkins, Bernie Fine and Rob Murphy is also vital.

Syracuse is bringing in some top flight talent, which is a change from last year where there were no top 50 recruits in SU’s starting lineup. Syracuse does have some experience coming back, which again will help them out. Scoop Jardine will be a fourth year junior, and Rick Jackson a pure senior. Kris Joseph will be in his third year, and was third in minutes for the Orange last year. Many, including myself, are expecting Joseph to continue to elevate his game. Brandon Triche now has a year of collegiate basketball under his belt, and Mookie Jones is now in his third year with the program. James Southerland had a year of practicing against Onuaku and Johnson last year, so I am eager to see how he has improved.

The incoming freshman are highly touted. Fab Melo is being counted on for some valuable minutes at the center. Replacing Onuaku will be very difficult, and Melo is a different style player, and only a freshman. Freshman centers are often the least disciplined players in their first years, having to make the biggest adjustments, so it will be asking a lot for Melo to be star in year one. But he could be. Baye Moussa Keita, a lanky but athletic freshman, will back him up.

Syracuse will be a little bit smaller at the top of the key with Jardine (6’2”) replacing Rautins (6’5”); but Jardine is not inexperienced at the zone. Freshman Dion Waiters, at 6’4”, should be a nice piece of the zone at the top, if he understands the concept.

The loss of Onuaku in the back of the zone will hurt a lot. Arinze took up a lot of space horizontally, and had tremendous strength. Rick Jackson will likely play some center this year, and has a similar build, but that removes size from Jackson’s former position. Melo, at 7’, would definitely fill up space, but he will have a lot to learn. Joseph at 6’7” should be a good replacement for Johnson. Sophomore James Sutherland and freshman CJ Fair, both at 6’8”, should be able to provide some wingspan on the back of that zone.

If the returning players from last year can convince the new players to buy into the concept that won so many games last year, and some of the players continue to develop, 2010-2011 can be another exciting year.

Thursday, September 16, 2010

2010 OrangeHoops Hall of Fame Selection

In 2007, OrangeHoops inducted its charter class into the OrangeHoops Hall of Fame: Dave Bing, Derrick Coleman, Sherman Douglas, Vic Hanson, and Pearl Washington. In 2008 Billy Owens was added to that list, and in 2009 Billy Gabor. So the list now stands at 8. Another year has passed, and now it is time for the 2010 inductee.

I won’t bother you with all the rules for eligibility (you can catch up on them here). 2010 does have six new eligible candidates (using the fifteen year rule): Michael Lloyd, Lawrence Moten, Luke Jackson, Elimu Nelson, Derrick Johnson and Melvin Tuten. Moten is a viable candidate from this list, and in fact, a very strong candidate. Jackson was a four year player / three year starter, but not noteworthy enough to warrant selection. Lloyd was a solid point guard for his one year on the Hill, but again nothing noteworthy. Nelson and Johnson were bench players, and Tuten a NFL prospect working out over the winter.

Other than Moten, I think this year’s viable top candidates come down to the following seven, listed chronologically: Lew Castle, Joe Schwarzer, Lew Andreas, Vinnie Cohen, Roosevelt Bouie, Louis Orr and Rony Seikaly.

Castle was a two time All-American at Syracuse, and was captain and leading scorer of Syracuse’s only undefeated team, the 1913-1914 squad that went 12-0.

Schwarzer was a two time All-American, and was captain and leading scorer of the 1917-1918 squad that went 16-1 and was retroactively named the National Champions by the Helms Foundation.Lew Andreas coached Syracuse basketball for 27 seasons, including the 19-1 1925-1926 squad that was awarded the Helms Foundation National Championship. He had a career record of 358-134, and he was the Syracuse Athletic Director for 28 years (1937-1964).

Cohen was an All-American, the first Syracuse player to average 20+ points a game in a season, and led the team to the NCAA Elite Eight in 1956-1957.

Bouie was a two time All-American, a standout defensive player who led Syracuse to a 100-18 record in his four years, and part of the famed Louie N’ Bouie tandom that rocketed Syracuse up the polls in the early Jim Boeheim years.

Orr was an All-American his senior year, a talented offensive player who played with intelligence on the court. He was the other half of the famed Louie N’ Bouie tandom.

Seikaly was an All-American, a standout defensive player whose outstanding play in the 1987 NCAA tournament took Syracuse to the brink of its first tournament championship.

Moten is the Syracuse all-time leading scorer, and the Big East conference all-time leading scorer. He was three times selected to the All Big East first team.

Again, another tough year with some very worthy candidates. That is of course by design; the OrangeHoops Hall of Fame is supposed to be tough to get into. The 2010 selection is Lawrence Moten.


Moten was a swingman for Syracuse from 1992 through 1995. He was one of the most poised freshman in Syracuse basketball history, if not the most poised, showing the character and understanding of a fourth year senior the first day on the court.

Moten never seemed to force the action, he let the game come to him. And yet, at the end of the night, he would be the leading scorer. His style of play was very smooth on the court earning him the moniker ‘Poetry in Moten’.

Lawrence Moten was highly recognizable on the court. He wore his socks knee high (very old school), and had a silver dollar size bald spot on the side of his head (apparently stress related). Moten would earn recognition his freshman year, earning Big East Rookie of the Year accolades, beating out other notable freshman Donyell Marshall (UConn) and Michael Smith (Providence). Moten averaged 18.2 ppg that season.

Six times in his career he would score 30 or more points, including a career high 36 against Villanova. He would be named All Big East First team 3 times, and would finish his career as the All Time Leading Scorer at Syracuse and in the Big East Conference (Records that both still stand today).

Moten’s importance to the Syracuse program can not be stated simply by the awards and statistics his compiled. Syracuse went 85-36 during his career; nothing record breaking about that, though a very solid record. But Syracuse was under investigation from the NCAA for rules violations when Moten came to Syracuse, and that investigation chased a lot of recruits away. Moten, himself, was not highly rated, and chose to stay with the program, even though it would be banned from the NCAA tournament his sophomore year. Moten’s play and leadership kept the program solid and competitive in the extremely difficult Big East conference, and that kept the program relevant for other players to come to Syracuse. That importance cannot be undersold.

Moten would be drafted in the 2nd round by the Vancouver (now Memphis) Grizzlies in the 2005 NBA Draft. He would have three unremarkable seasons in the NBA before moving on to the ABA and International Basketball.

Congratulations to Lawrence Moten, the 2010 inductee into the OrangeHoops Hall of Fame.

Sunday, August 22, 2010

The Dean of Interesting Syracuse Players

One of the things I have greatly enjoyed over the years with researching for the OrangeHoops site is uncovering some of the interesting lives that Syracuse basketball players have lived away from basketball. There are many atop my own personal list of ‘most interesting’, including the well known Jim Brown and Dave Bing, along with Jim Konstanty, Wilbur Crisp, Wilmeth Sidat-Singh, Warren Stevens, and Beal Banks, among others.

However, I think the most interesting life, particularly from the perspective of diversity, has to be that of Rick Dean. Dean was a physical player the Orangemen in the 1960s, teaming with Dave Bing, Jim Boeheim and George Hicker. The Orangemen were a short squad during that era, with Dean leading the way at 6’6”. Coach Fred Lewis had the Orangemen running a fast pace tempo, of which Dean was a part.

Dean’s basketball style alone would seem somewhat a conflict in stereotypes. He was a burly physical center, who often scored on layups, and as a result had a high field goal percentage. But he was also a very good free throw shooter, hitting 81% of his charity shots his junior year. He would be recognized as an Honorable Mention All American his senior year, along with a 2nd Team Academic All-American status.

Dean was drafted by both the NBA (San Francisco Warriors) and ABA (Denver Nuggets) upon graduating in 1967. He had however, been the top ROTC Cadet at Syracuse University, and chose instead to enlist in the Army Infantry and to serve in the Vietnam war.

Dean would be a platoon leader in the 101st Airborne Division, and would earn both a Silver Star and a Bronze Star for his actions in the war. He would remain in the military until 1970, rising to the rank of captain.

Dean then pursued a career in federal law enforcement, working for the Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI) for three years. He would make a sharp career change from there, entering the education field as an administrator and basketball coach. He would work for the North Carolina public school systems for 20 years in this capacity, along the way earning his masters degree from Appalachian State in 1979.

So what does a gentleman who has been an All-American athlete, Vietnam war hero, Federal Agent, and high school administrator/coach do for an encore?

Upon retiring for the North Carolina school systems, Rick Dean became an ordained Methodist minister, and has been the head pastor at Higgins Memorial United Methodist Church in Burnsville, NC, ever since.

Some day I may come around to naming my top 5 or top 10 all-time favorite interesting Syracuse basketball players. However, I’ll ruin the suspense for #1, for I will have Rick Dean in that position.

Friday, June 25, 2010

Johnson and Rautins Taken in the 2010 NBA Draft

Congratulations to Wes Johnson and Andy Rautins, both who were chosen in the NBA Draft last evening. Johnson was the #4 overall pick, taken by the Minnesota Timberwolves. He will be joining former Syracuse player Jonny Flynn, taken with the sixth overall pick last year. Rautins was taken in the second round with the 38th pick overall. His father Leo was the 17th pick in the 1st round of the 1983 draft, taken by the Philadelphia 76’ers. Johnson and Rautins are the 53rd and 54th Syracuse players ever drafted.

Johnson is the highest Syracuse draft pick since Carmelo Anthony was taken with the 3rd overall pick in the 2003 draft. He joins an elite group of Syracuse players taken with one of the top 4 picks of the draft; the other four were Anthony (3rd, 2003), Dave Bing (2nd, 1966), Derrick Coleman (1st, 1990) and Billy Owens (3rd, 1991).

Rautins and Johnson are the first Syracuse duo drafted in the same year since Etan Thomas (12th pick) and Jason Hart (49th pick) were both taken in 2000. It is the highest two players have been taken out of Syracuse, since 1991 when Owens was taken #3 and LeRon Ellis taken at #22. Syracuse last had three players in a draft was in 1986, when the draft went more than two rounds. Pearl Washington was #13 (1st round), Raf Addison #39 (2nd round) and Wendell Alexis (#59, 3rd round).

Three is top number of players ever drafted out of Syracuse in one year. Besides 1986, it has happened twice before. In 1983 Leo Rautins went in the 1st round, Erich Santifer in the 3rd round and Tony Bruin in the 7th. And in 1981 Danny Schayes went in the 1st round, Eddie Moss in the 4th and Marty Headd in the 9th.

Andy Rautins is the fifth Syracuse player drafted by the New York Knicks. Gary Clark was first, as a 3rd round pick in 1957. Marty Headd (9th round), Howard Triche (6th round) and John Wallace (1st round, 18th overall pick) were the other players.

In the Jim Boeheim era (1977-present), there have been 34 players drafted by the NBA. 16 of those were first round picks, 10 were second round picks, and 8 were taken in the now defunct 3rd through 9th rounds.

On the purely trivial side, Wes Johnson is the second Johnson from Syracuse ever drafted in the NBA. Dave Johnson was taken in the 1st round in 1991. Andy Rautins is the also second Rautins taken from Syracuse; his uncle George Rautins was drafted in 1975 by the Buffalo Braves out of Niagara University.

Both Johnson and Rautins have a strong upside to their game. Johnson, who made tremendous improvements after arriving at Syracuse, should be very interesting to follow in the NBA. He’s a rare combination of a great athlete who has an outstanding perimeter shot. If he learns to put the ball on the floor, he could be down right scary for opposing defenders.

Rautins improved significantly each year in college and was an outstanding perimeter shooter last season, despite being targeted by opposing defenses. He is also an outstanding passer who has a great feel for the game. Rautins is not as athletic as other draft picks, and may lack some of the lateral quickness, but you know that he’ll keep working on improving in those areas. And that international experience will continue to help him. This is a kid who came to college highly unnoticed, blew out his knee, and yet still managed to find time to put on 25-30 lbs of muscle, improve his quickness, improve his all around game dramatically, while impressing enough NBA scouts to get drafted.

Tuesday, June 15, 2010

Academic Fit for the Big Ten


I still believe that Syracuse will have a tough time, long term, competing athletically in the Big Ten (if given the opportunity). However, Syracuse University can hold its own academically with the schools in that conference.

US News and World Report ranks Syracuse as #58 in the country. That puts Syracuse in the middle of the Big Ten, trailing Northwestern, Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Penn State and Ohio State, but beating out Minnesota, Purdue, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan State and new addition Nebraska. And really, the difference between #53 and #58 is splitting hairs, so Syracuse would be on par with Ohio State, Minnesota and Purdue.
For a point of reference, here is how other potential Big Ten schools ranked:

  • Notre Dame - #20
  • Maryland - #53
  • Pitt - #56
  • Rutgers - #66
  • UConn - #66
  • Missouri - #102
So any notion that Syracuse does not fit academically with the Big 10 is a false notion. Of course, it is not all about academics. Nebraska is at #96, well below the bottom standard previously set by the Big Ten at 71. However, academics should not be a reason the Big Ten would not invite the Orange.

Texas surprised me by not accepting the offer to go to the Pac-10. That keeps the Big 12 intact for now. However, minus two schools, the Big 12 is going to want to grab two schools from somewhere; those schools are not going to be coming from the Big Ten or Pac-10, nor likely the SEC. That does not leave too many conferences left to raid. The Big East should be keeping an eye on some of its Western members, and working proactively to expand now.

As I mentioned the other day, expansion could occur simply by having some of the existing members step up to Division I with their football. Villanova is almost there (I-AA) anyhow, and that would give the Big East a football team in Philadelphia. I'd be willing to over a position in the Big East to another school with a Div I football program, and jettison Notre Dame (unless the Irish want to bring in their football program, which would never happen).

Wednesday, June 09, 2010

Big Ten Expansion - Should the Orange Go?

Should Syracuse go to the Big Ten, if invited?

I love the Big East, especially the basketball. There are great traditional rivalries in the league, and most teams are in the same time zone and relatively short travel distances.

I am not, however, a fan of the bloated Big East with its current 16 team configuration. I understand the need to do so in order to keep the football conference alive, but the conference is too big for basketball (and ironically, not big enough for football).

One of the nice things about the original Big East was that most of the schools were private institutions. This put all the schools on relatively equal footing financially. UConn was a state school, but never had its act together in the first decade, so it could not leverage its state funding. Pitt is a quasi-public school; it is not state run, but it is significantly state funded. The rest of the original schools were all Jesuit, with the exception of Syracuse which is now non-sectarian private.

Economics got in the way, the conference had to grow to keep football alive, and in the process added several state schools (West Virginia, Rutgers, Cincinnati, and South Florida) along with some additional Jesuit schools (Marquette, DePaul and Notre Dame).

The only reason I can see for Syracuse going to the Big Ten is revenue. That is a very big reason, and possibly the only reason that matters. More on that later.

I think going to the Big Ten would be a bad move for Syracuse for several reasons. It of course would ruin the regional rivalries, and schools like Georgetown, St. John’s and Villanova would definitely be left behind.

Recruiting Midwest athletes to play in Syracuse would be very tough. It is not impossible; Syracuse does recruit Ohio football players right now with some success, and recently has done well in Michigan with basketball players. But obviously, those are exceptions. It is much easier to convince a Philadelphia or New York kid to come to Syracuse, when he knows he’ll play a few games a year at home, than it is to convince a kid to come out of Indiana to the cold snowy Syracuse campus.

Ten out of the eleven Big Ten schools are state schools. The lone exception is Northwestern, which is historically the worst athletic program (for football and basketball in the Big Ten) and is last in revenue for the Big Ten. That is not a coincidence. State schools have access to tax dollars and have much deeper financial pockets to dig into to build the facilities and infrastructures to compete in the NCAA, not to mention the ability to pay coaches and staff.

With the exception of Northwestern, Big Ten schools have between 20,000 to 40,000 (Ohio State) undergraduate students. Syracuse has approximately 14,000. That leads to not only a larger on campus presence at games, but also a larger booster / alumni base. For every one alumni Syracuse would have, OSU would have three.

I think over the long haul, it would be very difficult for Syracuse to remain competitive in the Big Ten. Eventually the size differences of the institutions and revenue differences would come into play, along with the geographic anomalies, and Syracuse would be a mediocre program.

However, I think that if given the chance, Syracuse would jump to the Big Ten immediately. And, it would probably be the right decision. The only reason to make the move would be because of the money, but it’s a huge reason. And the discrepancy is significant. Per an article by ESPN’s Outside the Lines, the average Big Ten team makes $22 million per school in television revenue. The entire Big East television contract is around $35 million, and the schools that play football and basketball in the Big East make only $2.8 million annually from the conference television contract.

UConn is the top revenue school in the Big East with $54.7 million in 2007-2008 (per an article in the Orlando Sentinel). That would rank it only #10 in the Big Ten. The next three in line in the Big East are West Virginia, Louisville and Rutgers (note that they are all state schools). Syracuse made $44.7 million in 2007-2008. Even if they were at the bottom of the Big Ten, then would make a 25%-30% increase in revenue.

The Big East, despite the revenue disparity, appears to be quite content to leave things as they currently are. There is no talk of expansion, nor of shaking things up. And I believe that any team in the Big East would be foolish not to jump to the Big Ten (I would think UConn and Rutgers would be the top two candidates based on the geographic markets they can bring in and being state schools). If the Big East is raided, its football conference is going to die. So status quo does not work.

The ACC would have been a much better fit for Syracuse, I believe, in terms of geography (Syracuse does recruit the northern area of the ACC conferences and Florida), and its basketball prominence would be a better fit for Syracuse. But that is water under the bridge.

Unfortunately, moving to the Big Ten does start a trend of downward competitiveness for Syracuse. The administration would never admit to it, but if you could guarantee an additional 30% revenue from athletics despite being a perennial loser, they would jump at it. From a business perspective, the only reason to win is to generate more revenue; if you can generate more revenue in a losing situation than business dictates you do it.

I think in 15 years you will look back and say it was a bad move for Syracuse to move to the Big Ten (if it happened). But you cannot worry about fifteen years from now.

I hope the Big East stays alive for football, and the Orange remain put, but I think if given the chance, they will go.

By the way, if ESPN’s sources have it right, Nebraska has accepted a big to join the Big Ten. This could start a domino affect of a group of Big 12 teams joining the Pac-10, the Big 12 falling apart, and teams scrambling everywhere. We’ll see.